Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow: Brent, WTI and MCX Levels for 31 July 2026

Brent crude at $89.45/bbl (-1.42%) on 30 July after +7.33% spike to $90.25 on 29 July. WTI at $83.90. MCX crude near Rs 7,556/bbl. Iran rules out Omani strait proposal. OPEC+ to halt output hikes from October. Rupee at 95.68.

The crude oil prediction for tomorrow, 31 July 2026, is cautiously rangebound with a slight downside bias, as Brent crude pulled back 1.42% to $89.45 per barrel on Wednesday after the dramatic 7.33% single-session spike to $90.25 on Tuesday. The pullback came despite no resolution to the West Asia conflict, as 39 commodity ships continued to ply the Bab el-Mandeb strait into the Red Sea, signalling that supply disruptions remain contained for now even as geopolitical tensions stay elevated.

Two forces are pulling the crude oil prediction for tomorrow in opposite directions. On the bullish side: Iran has ruled out an Omani proposal for regional joint management of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers are continuing, US crude inventories are at a multi-year low, and OPEC+ is expected to halt output increases from October 2026. On the bearish side: 39 ships transited the conflict zone without incident on Wednesday, China is actively pushing US-Iran peace talks, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish post-decision tone from Fed Chair Warsh has strengthened the US dollar, which historically caps crude oil prices when the Dollar Index rises.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest (IIT Delhi), have assessed the crude oil chart structure, geopolitical inputs, and macroeconomic signals to deliver their outlook for Thursday’s session. The full crude oil prediction for tomorrow, including Brent, WTI and MCX levels, three impacted Indian stock setups, and a three-scenario analysis, is detailed below.

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Crude Oil Price Recap: Wednesday, 30 July 2026

Understanding Wednesday’s price action is essential context for any crude oil prediction for tomorrow. Brent crude opened Thursday’s Asian session (reported as 30 July IST morning) at $89.45, down $1.29 or 1.42% from Tuesday’s peak of $90.25. WTI crude traded at $83.90, down $0.56 or 0.66%. The pullback reflects traders partially unwinding the geopolitical risk premium built in during Tuesday’s 7.33% surge, rather than any fundamental change in supply conditions.

Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow: Technical Levels and Analyst View

Trend: Rangebound with Slight Downside Bias | Brent Support: $87.00 / $84.00 | Brent Resistance: $92.00 / $95.00 | MCX Support: Rs 7,200 / Rs 6,900 | MCX Resistance: Rs 7,800 / Rs 8,100

The crude oil prediction for tomorrow is rangebound with a slight downside bias in the base case. Brent crude is consolidating below the $90 psychological resistance level after Tuesday’s geopolitical spike. The daily chart structure shows price forming a high-volatility consolidation band between $87.00 and $92.00, with no clear directional breakout yet. This is typical price action in the first 48 to 72 hours after a sharp geopolitical shock, as the market reassesses whether the supply disruption will be sustained or temporary.

According to Ankit Jaiswal, the $90.00 per barrel level is now the critical resistance for Brent in Thursday’s session. Tuesday’s spike took price briefly above $90 but could not sustain a close above it, creating what chart analysts call a failed breakout pattern. Ankit Jaiswal notes that a decisive close above $90.50 to $91.00 on renewed escalation news would be needed to resume the uptrend toward the $92.00 to $95.00 zone. Without that catalyst, the path of least resistance in the crude oil prediction for tomorrow is sideways to mildly lower.

On the downside, Ankit Jaiswal identifies $87.00 as the first meaningful Brent support level for Thursday. This level aligns with a prior consolidation zone from late July and represents where buyers stepped in during the brief pullback on 27 July when crude fell 9% on US-Iran peace talk hopes. Below $87.00, the $84.00 level becomes relevant, corresponding to WTI’s current trading range and a longer-term support cluster from early July.

For MCX crude oil in India, Kunal Singla observes that the Rs 7,800 per barrel level is the immediate resistance in Thursday’s Indian market session. MCX crude tracks Brent with a lag that incorporates the rupee rate and import duty structure. With the rupee at 95.68, a weaker rupee adds approximately Rs 50 to Rs 80 per barrel to MCX crude prices for every 25 paise of rupee depreciation, making the rupee-dollar rate a critical secondary variable in the MCX crude oil prediction for tomorrow.

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Key Drivers Behind the Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

West Asia Geopolitics: The Dominant Variable

The West Asia conflict remains the single most important driver of the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. Four specific developments from Wednesday define the current setup. First, Iran has formally ruled out an Omani proposal for regional joint management of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, removing the most likely near-term diplomatic off-ramp. Second, Saudi Arabia is actively building a coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks, signalling that the conflict is broadening rather than narrowing. Third, 39 commodity ships transited the Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday without incident, suggesting that supply flows have not yet been physically disrupted at scale. Fourth, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers have created an Iranian-aligned second front that directly threatens Saudi Arabia’s export infrastructure.

Kunal Singla observes that the fact tankers are still moving is what prevented Brent from sustaining above $90 on Wednesday. He notes that the crude oil prediction for tomorrow hinges entirely on whether Thursday brings a physical supply disruption event, such as a successful Houthi strike on a Saudi tanker or a Hormuz closure signal from Iran, or whether tanker traffic continues unimpeded. The former would push Brent above $92 quickly; the latter would see prices drift toward $87 to $88.

Goldman Sachs $120 Scenario vs $80 Base Case

Goldman Sachs has issued a formal scenario analysis that directly shapes institutional positioning in the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. Their base case is $80 per barrel for Q4 2026 on expected de-escalation. However, they have flagged that Brent could top $120 per barrel by Q4 if Hormuz disruptions persist, with Persian Gulf flows having already fallen below 45% of pre-war levels. This $80 to $120 range represents an unusually wide uncertainty band and reflects the binary nature of the current geopolitical situation: resolution sends oil back to $80, escalation sends it toward $120.

US Crude Inventories at Multi-Year Low

The fundamental supply picture is independently bullish for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow, regardless of geopolitics. US crude inventories dropped to a multi-year low as confirmed in the 29 July inventory data release. A tighter US inventory position means the market has less buffer to absorb any physical supply shock from the Middle East. OPEC+ is also expected to halt output increases from October 2026, removing another potential supply cushion that traders had been relying on to offset geopolitical risk premiums.

Federal Reserve Hawkish Tone: The Bearish Counterfactor

Fed Chair Warsh’s post-decision inflation message on 30 July was interpreted by markets as hawkish, with the dollar strengthening on Warsh’s firm tone on inflation. A stronger Dollar Index near 101.20 is the primary bearish factor for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. Crude oil is priced in US dollars globally, so a rising dollar reduces the purchasing power of non-dollar buyers, dampening demand and capping price appreciation even when geopolitical supply risks are elevated.

China Peace Diplomacy: The Wildcard

China is backing Pakistan’s efforts to revive US-Iran peace talks, a development confirmed by Economic Times reporting on 27 July. If these diplomatic efforts produce any signal of progress overnight, crude could gap down at Thursday’s Asia open by $3 to $5 per barrel, replicating the pattern seen on 27 July when the 9% single-day crash from above $97 to below $88 occurred on US-Iran pause news. This is the key overnight wildcard in the crude oil prediction for tomorrow.

Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow: Three Scenarios

Indian Stocks to Watch on Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

Crude oil price direction has a direct and quantifiable impact on multiple listed Indian companies. The three most important stock setups to watch in Thursday’s Indian market session, as part of the crude oil prediction for tomorrow, are identified below by Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla.

HPCL: OMC Under-Recovery Watch

CMP: Rs 388 | Crude Bull Watch: Rs 370 (downside risk) | Crude Bear Watch: Rs 405 (upside potential)

HPCL is the most directly impacted name in the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. The Indian government has disclosed in Parliament that LPG under-recovery has already exceeded Rs 51,000 crore, and crude sustaining above $90 per barrel would widen this figure further. Ankit Jaiswal has flagged HPCL for monitoring because the stock declined on Wednesday alongside the crude spike, confirming the inverse relationship between OMC stock performance and crude oil prices remains intact in the current environment.

Ankit Jaiswal notes that in the base case scenario for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow, where Brent consolidates between $87 and $91, HPCL is likely to trade sideways near Rs 385 to Rs 395. If crude pushes above $92, HPCL faces a test of Rs 370 support. A crude pullback to $85 or below would be a meaningful positive for HPCL and could spark a relief rally toward Rs 405.

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BPCL: Second OMC Under Crude Pressure

CMP: Rs 312 | Crude Bull Watch: Rs 298 (downside risk) | Crude Bear Watch: Rs 325 (upside potential)

BPCL mirrors HPCL’s crude sensitivity and faces the same under-recovery headwind in the current elevated crude environment. The Centre is reportedly weighing a relief package for OMCs after Rs 75,000 crore in cumulative fuel sale losses, as confirmed by oil ministry sources. Ankit Jaiswal notes that any government announcement on OMC relief would be a significant positive trigger for BPCL independent of crude direction, and Thursday’s session should be monitored for any such policy news emerging alongside LIC results and the broader earnings calendar.

ONGC: The Inverse Play on Higher Crude

CMP: Rs 264 | Crude Bull Watch Target: Rs 278 | Crude Bear Support: Rs 254

ONGC is the direct beneficiary of elevated crude oil prices in the Indian market, as higher Brent realisation directly improves ONGC’s upstream profitability. Kunal Singla observes that ONGC’s chart shows the stock holding above the Rs 258 to Rs 262 support zone on the daily timeframe, with RSI at approximately 52 suggesting the stock has not yet priced in the full benefit of the crude spike. He flags ONGC as the preferred long-side crude play in Thursday’s session, with the Rs 278 watch target aligning with a prior resistance zone from mid-July.

Impact of Crude Oil on India: Macro Picture for Tomorrow

The crude oil prediction for tomorrow has implications far beyond MCX futures and OMC stocks. Every $10 rise in Brent crude above $80 per barrel adds approximately Rs 60,000 to Rs 70,000 crore to India’s annual import bill at current import volumes. With Brent near $89 to $90, India is already paying a meaningful premium above its fiscal budgeting assumptions.

• LPG Under-Recovery: Already exceeds Rs 51,000 crore as disclosed in Parliament. Every $5 rise in crude sustained for a full quarter adds approximately Rs 8,000 to Rs 10,000 crore to this figure, creating fiscal pressure on the government to either raise retail LPG prices or absorb losses through OMC balance sheets.
• Petrol and Diesel: Retail petrol and diesel prices have not been revised in months despite crude volatility. If Brent sustains above $92 to $95 per barrel through August, the political calculus around retail fuel price hikes will become a live policy debate, directly affecting consumer inflation and RBI rate decision timing.
• Pakistan and Bangladesh LNG Crisis: Pakistan is paying $21.88 per mmBtu for July LNG cargo, the highest since 2022, as the Hormuz crisis chokes South Asian energy supplies. This is a regional signal that energy markets are pricing in persistent supply disruption, adding structural support to the crude oil prediction for tomorrow even absent fresh escalation news.
• Current Account Deficit: India imports approximately 88% of its crude oil requirements. A $10 per barrel rise sustained for a full year widens India’s current account deficit by approximately 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP, putting pressure on the rupee and reducing RBI’s capacity to cut interest rates aggressively.

Global Cues Shaping the Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

• US-Iran Peace Talk Progress: China is backing Pakistan’s efforts to revive US-Iran negotiations. Any overnight signal of diplomatic progress is the single most bearish overnight development for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow and could produce a gap-down at Asia open of $3 to $5 per barrel, replicating the 27 July pattern.
• Bab el-Mandeb Transit Data: The number of commodity ships transiting the strait is a live supply proxy. Wednesday’s 39-ship count was reassuring for supply continuity. A sharp drop in this number overnight, or a Houthi attack on a vessel in transit, would be a direct bullish trigger for crude at Thursday’s open.
• Federal Reserve and Dollar Index: The Dollar Index holding near 101.20 after Warsh’s hawkish inflation message is a structural headwind for crude oil. A dollar above 102 would amplify downward pressure on Brent and WTI in Thursday’s session. A dollar retreat below 100.50 would remove this headwind and allow the geopolitical supply premium to reassert more fully.
• OPEC+ October Decision Signal: Any formal communication from OPEC+ members regarding the October output halt decision would be a positive supply signal for crude. Markets have partially priced this expectation in, but a confirmed statement would provide fresh upside support to the crude oil prediction for tomorrow.

Trading Strategy for Thursday’s Crude Oil Session

1. Check Brent at Asia Open: The first Brent price at Singapore open, approximately 6:30 AM IST, is the most important input for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow in Indian markets. Brent above $90.50 at Asia open signals a retest of the $92 resistance. Brent below $88.00 at Asia open signals a move toward the $87 support and a mildly positive open for OMC stocks in India.
2. Monitor Geopolitical Headlines Overnight: Set news alerts for “Iran”, “Houthi”, “Bab el-Mandeb”, and “Hormuz” before Thursday’s Indian market open. A new military event is the highest-probability catalyst to invalidate any base-case crude oil prediction for tomorrow, in either direction, within minutes of the headline.
3. Trade ONGC Long vs OMC Short as a Pair: In the bull crude scenario, ONGC benefits while HPCL and BPCL suffer. In the bear crude scenario, the inverse applies. Kunal Singla notes that this pairs trade structure reduces directional market risk and isolates the crude oil theme specifically, making it a more surgical way to express a crude oil prediction for tomorrow in the Indian equity market.
4. MCX Session Hours: MCX crude oil futures trade from 9:00 AM to 11:30 PM IST. The evening session from 5:00 PM to 11:30 PM mirrors US market hours and is when the most significant crude price moves occur on India-listed futures. Traders with MCX positions should be aware that the crude oil prediction for tomorrow can change materially during the post-4 PM session based on US inventory data revisions and US market direction.

Risks to the Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

• Diplomatic Breakthrough Overnight: A US-Iran ceasefire signal driven by Chinese and Pakistani diplomatic efforts is the highest-impact downside risk to the crude oil prediction for tomorrow, potentially pushing Brent down $5 to $8 per barrel at Asia open, replicating 27 July’s 9% crash.
• New Military Escalation: A successful Houthi strike on a Saudi Aramco facility or an Iranian move to restrict Hormuz shipping would push Brent sharply above $92 to $95 overnight, invalidating the rangebound base case for the crude oil prediction
• New Military Escalation: A successful Houthi strike on a Saudi Aramco facility or an Iranian move to restrict Hormuz shipping would push Brent sharply above $92 to $95 overnight, invalidating the rangebound base case for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow and triggering fresh selling in OMC stocks at Thursday’s Indian market open.
• Unexpected US Inventory Build: If weekly US crude inventory data released on Wednesday evening shows an unexpected build rather than the expected draw, it would add bearish fuel to the price action in Thursday’s session, potentially pushing Brent below the $87 support and toward the $84 zone.
• Rupee Depreciation Beyond 96: A sharp move in the rupee beyond 96 per dollar would mechanically push MCX crude prices higher in rupee terms even if Brent is flat or declining in dollar terms, creating an unusual situation where Indian crude oil traders face upward price pressure from the currency even as the international market is rangebound.

Conclusion

The crude oil prediction for tomorrow, 31 July 2026, is rangebound with a slight downside bias in the base case, with Brent expected to trade between $87 and $91 per barrel and MCX crude between Rs 7,300 and Rs 7,700 per barrel. The geopolitical situation in West Asia remains the dominant variable, with tanker transit continuity on Wednesday providing a temporary relief signal even as Iran rules out diplomatic proposals and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue.

Ankit Jaiswal identifies $90.00 as the critical Brent resistance for Thursday’s session and has flagged HPCL and BPCL for monitoring as the two Indian stocks most sensitive to upside crude price risk. Kunal Singla observes that ONGC represents the most compelling long-side crude play in the Indian equity market, given its chart structure and the fact that the upstream benefit of elevated crude has not yet been fully priced in at current levels.

The crude oil prediction for tomorrow remains binary at its core: a geopolitical escalation overnight sends prices sharply higher, while a diplomatic breakthrough sends them sharply lower. In the absence of either, the base case of rangebound consolidation near $87 to $91 is the most probable outcome for Thursday. Traders should size positions conservatively given the elevated overnight geopolitical risk and apply the stop loss levels outlined in this article. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment or trading decision based on any commodity price outlook or prediction.

FAQs on Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

What is the crude oil prediction for tomorrow, 31 July 2026?

Ans. The crude oil prediction for tomorrow, 31 July 2026, is rangebound with a slight downside bias. Brent crude is expected to trade between $87 and $91 per barrel in the base case, with MCX crude between Rs 7,300 and Rs 7,700 per barrel. The bull case of $92 to $97 requires a fresh Houthi strike or Hormuz restriction signal. The bear case of $83 to $87 requires a US-Iran ceasefire signal or a sharp dollar rally post-Fed. Support is at $87 and resistance is at $90 to $92 for Brent.

Why did crude oil spike 7% on 29 July 2026?

Ans. Crude oil spiked 7.33% to $90.25 per barrel on 29 July because of US airstrikes on Iran and escalating West Asia tensions. The Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and fears of a Hormuz shipping lane closure triggered a sharp geopolitical risk premium in Brent and WTI prices. This was the largest single-session crude oil move since 2022. The spike partially reversed on 30 July as 39 tankers transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait without incident, signalling that physical supply disruptions remained contained.

What is the MCX crude oil level to watch for tomorrow?

Ans. For the crude oil prediction for tomorrow on MCX, the key resistance level is Rs 7,800 per barrel and the key support level is Rs 7,200 per barrel. MCX crude tracks Brent crude with a lag that factors in the rupee-dollar exchange rate and India’s import duty structure. With the rupee at 95.68 per dollar, every 25 paise of rupee weakness adds approximately Rs 50 to Rs 80 per barrel to MCX crude prices, making the rupee rate the critical secondary variable to track alongside international Brent prices.

Which Indian stocks are most impacted by crude oil prices tomorrow?

Ans. Three Indian stocks are most directly impacted by the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. HPCL and BPCL are negatively impacted by higher crude as it widens their under-recovery on subsidised fuel sales, with HPCL facing Rs 370 downside risk if Brent breaks above $92. ONGC is positively impacted as higher crude improves its upstream oil realisation price, with a watch target of Rs 278 in the bull crude scenario identified by Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest. Any government OMC relief package announcement would be independently positive for HPCL and BPCL regardless of crude direction.

What is Goldman Sachs’s crude oil price target for 2026?

Ans. Goldman Sachs has issued two scenarios for crude oil in their latest analysis relevant to the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. Their base case is $80 per barrel for Q4 2026, premised on expected de-escalation of the West Asia conflict. Their bull case is above $120 per barrel by Q4 2026 if Hormuz disruptions persist, noting that Persian Gulf flows have already fallen below 45% of pre-war levels. This unusually wide $80 to $120 range reflects the binary geopolitical nature of the current crude oil situation, where conflict resolution or escalation produces dramatically different price outcomes.

How does the Federal Reserve decision affect the crude oil prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish post-decision tone from Fed Chair Warsh on 30 July has strengthened the US Dollar Index to near 101.20. Since crude oil is priced globally in US dollars, a stronger dollar reduces the purchasing power of non-dollar buyers and caps crude oil price appreciation. This is the primary bearish counterfactor in the crude oil prediction for tomorrow. A dollar above 102 would amplify downside pressure on Brent and WTI. A dollar retreat below 100.50 would remove this headwind and allow the geopolitical supply premium to push prices higher more freely.

What is OPEC+’s plan and how does it affect crude oil prices?

Ans. OPEC+ is expected to halt output increases from October 2026, a decision that is independently bullish for the crude oil prediction for tomorrow and beyond. This removes a potential supply cushion that markets had been counting on to offset geopolitical risk premiums from the West Asia conflict. The combination of OPEC+ output restraint, US crude inventories at a multi-year low, and West Asia supply disruption risk creates a structurally tight supply backdrop that supports Brent prices above $85 per barrel in the medium term even if the immediate geopolitical spike partially unwinds.

Is the crude oil prediction for tomorrow guaranteed?

Ans. No, the crude oil prediction for tomorrow is an analytical assessment based on technical chart analysis, geopolitical inputs, macroeconomic signals, and supply-demand data. It is not a guaranteed outcome. Crude oil is one of the most volatile commodity markets globally and is subject to sudden and sharp moves driven by overnight military events, diplomatic developments, or unexpected inventory data releases. The base case, bull case, and bear case scenarios outlined in this article are probabilistic assessments only. This content is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading or investment decision.

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