Crude Oil Prediction for Monday, 5 October 2026

October 1, 2026
Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
Category: Uncategorized

Crude Oil closed at Rs 8,918.00 per barrel on Thursday, up 2.11 percent. Nifty 50 fell 0.88% to 22,421.95. India VIX spiked 7.64% to 14.52. Markets shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, plus the weekend.

Quick Answer

This crude oil price prediction for monday leans firm into Monday’s session, as crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off. Since Indian markets are shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti and through the weekend, Thursday’s close remains the last available data. Traders should treat the levels below as a working framework rather than a fixed call.

This crude oil price prediction for monday follows a Thursday, 1 October 2026 session in which broader equity markets sold off sharply, with Nifty 50 falling 0.88 percent to 22,421.95 as India VIX spiked 7.64 percent to 14.52, its sharpest single-day jump since late September, as broad-based selling hit most sectors, with Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal the worst hit even as Nifty IT bucked the trend entirely and rallied.

Nothing in this crude oil price prediction for monday should be treated as a guarantee, only a working framework for Monday’s session.

Univest’s research desk, led by Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla, is tracking global cues over the long weekend for this crude oil price prediction for monday, since commodity prices on MCX often move in step with international benchmarks and the US Dollar Index.

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Table of Contents

What Thursday Told Us

Crude Oil closed at Rs 8,918.00 per barrel, up 2.11 percent on the 19 October 2026 futures.
Nifty 50 fell 0.88 percent, part of a broad-based sell-off that spared only a few sectors.
India VIX spiked 7.64 percent to 14.52, its sharpest single-day jump since late September.

This crude oil price prediction for monday should be read alongside the support and resistance levels detailed above.

Crude Oil Prediction for Monday: Key Levels

Univest’s desk is watching whether crude oil can extend Thursday’s firm tone once trading resumes on 5 October 2026. A sustained move in crude oil prices and the US Dollar Index over the long weekend will be the main swing factor, since both influence MCX pricing directly.

Key Drivers for Monday

Crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off.
India VIX spiked 7.64 percent to 14.52, its sharpest single-day jump since late September, as broad-based selling hit most sectors, with Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal the worst hit even as Nifty IT bucked the trend entirely and rallied.
Movement in the US Dollar Index, which typically has an inverse relationship with metal and bullion prices on MCX.

Stocks to Watch Alongside This Commodity

Reliance Industries, given its refining and petrochemicals exposure, and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, as an upstream producer, are the two stocks most directly linked to this crude oil price prediction for Monday, with both falling today (1.63 percent and 1.52 percent) despite crude’s rally.

Univest’s desk will revisit this crude oil price prediction for monday once Monday’s opening trade confirms direction.

Why This Is Written for Monday

Indian markets are closed Friday, 2 October 2026, for Gandhi Jayanti, as well as Saturday and Sunday, so Thursday’s closing prices remain the last available data until trading resumes on Monday, 5 October 2026. Treat this crude oil price prediction for monday as a briefing to prepare for that session, not a live call that updates over the long weekend.

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Risks to This Prediction

A sharp reversal in crude oil prices over the long weekend could change the direction implied here.
Any unexpected US Federal Reserve commentary could move the US Dollar Index and, in turn, MCX prices.
Thin volumes early Monday can exaggerate short-term moves.

Traders relying on this crude oil price prediction for monday should still size positions to their own risk appetite.

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Conclusion

This crude oil price prediction for monday leans firm into 5 October 2026, with crude oil prices and global cues over the long weekend as the key variables to track. Traders should size positions carefully given the current volatility backdrop.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. Read all related documents carefully before investing. The information provided here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered investment adviser (Registration No. INH000013776). Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

As with any crude oil price prediction for monday, the opening minutes of Monday’s trade will confirm or challenge the levels discussed here.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the crude oil price prediction for monday?

Ans. It leans firm for 5 October 2026, after Crude Oil closed at Rs 8,918.00 per barrel on Thursday, up 2.11 percent.

Why is this a prediction for Monday instead of tomorrow?

Ans. Because Indian markets are closed Friday, 2 October 2026, for Gandhi Jayanti, as well as Saturday and Sunday, so the next trading session is Monday, 5 October 2026.

Why did crude oil move higher on Thursday?

Ans. Crude Oil moved higher on Thursday mainly because crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off.

This crude oil price prediction for monday is built from Thursday’s verified market data, since markets are shut through the long weekend.

Why did crude oil jump today?

Ans. Crude oil jumped today because crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off.

How does the crude oil price prediction for Monday affect Indian stocks?

Ans. Higher crude raises India’s import bill, inflation risk and rupee pressure, and today’s jump coincided with a broad sell-off across Indian equities.

Is now a good time to trade based on this outlook?

Ans. Whether to trade on this outlook depends on individual risk appetite. Univest’s analysts suggest confirming direction once MCX trading resumes Monday before taking a position.

Crude Oil MCX

Author: Ankit Jaiswal

Ankit Jaiswal is the Senior Research Analyst at Univest, leading the platform's in-house equity research desk and serving as the editorial reviewer for all research and blog content published at univest.in. With 11+ years of experience in Indian equity markets, he oversees stock recommendations, earnings analysis, sector coverage, and ensures every published article meets SEBI Research Analyst Regulations. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com) from St. Xavier's College, Kolkata — one of India's most prestigious commerce institutions — and has cleared CMT Level 2 from the CMT Association, a globally recognised certification in technical analysis and market research. His research methodology combines fundamental analysis (earnings quality, balance sheet strength, management commentary) with advanced technical analysis (chart patterns, momentum indicators, market structure) — giving Univest's retail investors a dual-lens approach that most Indian research platforms lack. Ankit is among the most comprehensively certified analysts in Indian financial media, holding five NISM certifications: Series-XV (Research Analyst), Series-VIII (Equity Derivatives), Series-VII (SORM), Series-VI (Depository Operations), and Series-V-A (Mutual Fund Distributors). At Univest — India's SEBI-registered research and advisory platform — Ankit's responsibilities include leading the research team, finalising stock recommendations published across Pro Lite, Pro Super, and Pro Gold advisory services, and maintaining editorial oversight of all YMYL financial content published on the blog.