Natural Gas Price Prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026: MCX Natural Gas Slips 0.60 Percent to Rs 263.70 as Crude Oil’s Sharp Fall Resets the Energy Complex
- August 14, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: Predictions
MCX Nat Gas Thu: Rs 263.70/MMBTU (-0.60%). H: Rs 267.70. L: Rs 265.80. Crude Rs 7,803 (-0.23%). Gold -0.37%. Nifty -0.16%. Sensex +0.15%.
Quick Answer
MCX Natural Gas dipped -0.60% to Rs 263.70 on Thursday, but the Rs 265.80 intraday low stayed above the Rs 265 structural support that has held for three consecutive sessions. The natural gas price prediction for Monday is neutral-to-slightly-positive ; India’s CGD network volume growth (18% year-on-year) provides a structural demand floor regardless of crude’s Thursday -1.88% crash. The key Friday question is whether gas holds above Rs 265 or tests the Rs 260-262 secondary support.
The natural gas price prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 is shaped by Thursday’s twin macro developments: MCX Crude Oil crashing -1.88% to Rs 7,803 ; its sharpest single-day fall this week and lowest level since before Tuesday’s Iran-deal-stall surge ; and TCS bouncing +1.08% to Rs 2,356, confirming IT sector recovery after Wednesday’s -3.93% crash. Nifty 50 closed at 24,354.85 (-0.17%) in its fourth consecutive opening-high distribution session, while the Sensex defied the trend at 77,931.10 (-0.19%). Bank Nifty slipped -0.43% to 57,459.10 after ICICI Bank fell -1.74%, blocking the Day 6 banking rotation for a second consecutive day.
Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, frame the natural gas price prediction for Monday around crude oil’s -1.88% Thursday fall as the dominant macro shift heading into Friday. At Rs 7,803 ; down from Rs 8,024 on Tuesday in just two sessions ; crude’s 3% retreat provides substantial input cost relief to auto, FMCG, cement and chemicals sectors. Simultaneously, IT sector recovery (TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled), HCL Tech +0.34%) provides a second positive catalyst. Together, these two themes make the natural gas price prediction for Monday the most opportunity-rich of the week, even as banking consolidates after Thursday’s ICICI Bank +0.40% (finally recovered Friday).
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Thursday’s Market Recap for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
| Indicator | Fri 17 Aug Close (Groww) | Change | Signal for Friday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,354.85 | -0.16% | 4th Open=High distribution; L:24,311; floor at 24,265 intact |
| Sensex | 77,931.10 | +0.15% | Only index green; TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled) drove this; L:77,399 |
| Bank Nifty | 57,459.10 | -0.43% | Open=High session; ICICI +0.40% (finally recovered) primary drag; L:57,548 |
| MCX Crude Oil | Rs 7,803/bbl | -1.88% | Largest single-day fall this week; below Rs 7,800; Iran deal signals |
| MCX Gold | Rs 1,52,220/10g | -0.37% | Mild pullback from Wed high; L:1,52,250; support intact |
| MCX Silver | Rs 2,36,198/kg | -0.80% | Correcting from Wed bounce; L:2,34,700 |
| MCX Copper | Rs 1,373.55/kg | -0.29% | Mild dip; L:1,357.55; industrial demand intact |
| MCX Zinc | Rs 398.30/kg | -0.51% | L:390.45; supply deficit still alive |
| MCX Nat Gas | Rs 263.70/MMBTU | -0.60% | L:265.80; consolidating above Rs 265 |
| TCS | Rs 2,356 | +1.08% | IT Day 1 recovery; NASDAQ bounce confirmed; H:2,375 |
| ICICI Bank | Rs 1,412.40 | -1.74% | Day 6 rotation failed; Rs 1,435 held; new support Rs 1,395-1,410 |
| SBI | Rs 1,083 | +0.09% | PSU banking stable; H:1,086.80; floor at Rs 1,073 |
| Reliance | Rs 1,317 | -0.90% | Worst session this week; L:1,307.20; crude fall helps O2C Fri |
natural gas price prediction for Monday: Key Factors for Friday
- MCX Natural Gas’s Rs 265.80 intraday low on Thursday stayed above the Rs 265 floor that has been defended for three consecutive sessions. for Friday’s session, this three-session floor at Rs 265-266 is becoming a technical base ; three tests without a close below this level signal institutional buyers defending the position. Ankit Jaiswal identifies Rs 265.80 as the natural gas price prediction for Monday confirmed floor.
- Crude oil crashing -1.88% to Rs 7,803 Thursday has a mixed effect on the natural gas price prediction for Monday. When crude falls on Iran deal signals, gas-versus-crude relative price shifts ; natural gas becomes relatively more expensive to crude on an energy-equivalent basis, potentially reducing industrial gas substitution demand slightly. However, India’s CGD network uses gas for fixed-volume city distribution (CNG for autos, PNG for households) which doesn’t substitute with crude, keeping structural demand intact.
- NYMEX Natural Gas direction pre-market Friday is Friday’s primary overnight signal. NYMEX above USD 3.90/MMBTU = India MCX gas positive for Friday. Below USD 3.70/MMBTU = pressure on Rs 265-266 floor on Friday. The Russia-Ukraine pipeline gas supply dynamics are the secondary NYMEX catalyst for Friday.
- Reliance Industries at Rs 1,317 (-0.90% Thursday, its worst session this week) has KG-D6 gas realization tracking natural gas price prediction for Monday direction. For Friday, Kunal Singla identifies Reliance recovery from Rs 1,317 as the equity expression of natural gas price prediction for Monday stability ; KG-D6 gas at Rs 263.70 remains above the Rs 260 level at which Reliance’s KG-D6 economics become marginal.
Technical Levels for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
| Level | Zone | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Support | Rs 264-265.80 (Thursday intraday low + 3-session floor) | Confirmed buyer zone from Thursday’s session; DII accumulation visible |
| Secondary Support | Rs 259-262 | Deeper correction floor ; only matters if primary breaks on Friday |
| Immediate Resistance | Rs 268-270 | First recovery target for Friday; partial booking zone |
| Extended Resistance | Rs 273-276 | Breakout target if Friday session builds on Thursday momentum |
Stocks Flagged for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
| Stock | Thu Close | Entry Zone | Target | Stop Loss | Analyst | Why Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | Rs 1,317 (-0.90% Thu) | Rs 1,305-1,320 | Rs 1,348 | Rs 1,290 | Ankit Jaiswal | Reliance KG-D6 gas realization at Rs 263.70 + crude -1.88% (O2C refining margin improvement). Natural gas price prediction for Monday recovery + crude fall = double positive for Reliance Friday. |
| IGL (Indraprastha Gas) | Rs 412 est. | Rs 406-414 | Rs 428 | Rs 394 | Kunal Singla | IGL CGD distribution volume growth 18% YoY provides structural natural gas price prediction for Monday demand ; Friday play independent of spot gas price direction. |
| ONGC | Rs 236 est. | Rs 232-238 | Rs 250 | Rs 224 | Ankit Jaiswal | ONGC gas realization tracks the natural gas price prediction for Monday. Crude -1.88% is mildly negative for ONGC crude realization but neutral for gas division. |
Screen All Stocks for Friday’s session on Univest Screener
Strategy for the natural gas price prediction for Monday Session
- Rs 264-265.80 is the natural gas price prediction for Monday buy-on-dip zone for Friday. The three-session floor at Rs 265-266 provides the entry rationale; use Rs 259 stop-loss.
- NYMEX Natural Gas above USD 3.90/MMBTU pre-market Friday = MCX gas positive; target Rs 268-270 first resistance on Friday.
- CGD sector stocks (IGL, MGL) are Friday’s equity signal plays ; volume growth is the primary driver regardless of spot gas price movements on Friday.
- Kunal Singla: Rs 270 resistance is the natural gas price prediction for Monday maximum near-term target for Friday given Thursday’s -0.60% correction from the Rs 267.70 high.
Key Risks to the natural gas price prediction for Monday
- Natural gas breaking below Rs 265.80 (Thursday’s intraday low) Friday, signalling the three-session floor has given way on Friday.
- NYMEX Natural Gas falling below USD 3.70/MMBTU from US inventory build data, pulling MCX gas toward Rs 259-262 secondary support on Friday.
- Iran deal confirmation causing crude to collapse further ; if Brent crude gaps below USD 85/bbl, the energy complex reset may pull natural gas lower on Friday.
Conclusion
The natural gas price prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 has crude oil’s -1.88% Thursday fall to Rs 7,803 as its most important macro input. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies primary support at Rs 264-265.80 (Thursday intraday low + 3-session floor) and immediate resistance at Rs 268-270 for Friday’s session, with the crude relief trade (auto, FMCG, cement) and IT recovery (TCS, HCL Tech) as Friday’s two highest-conviction positive themes.
Kunal Singla of Univest adds that ICICI Bank’s Thursday -1.74% creates a buy-on-dip entry at Rs 1,395-1,412 for banking sector exposure ; lower than Wednesday’s entry, same Rs 1,432-1,442 target. Check GIFT Nifty above 24,420 and NASDAQ above 22,000 at 9 AM Friday as the two pre-market signals that confirm Friday’s positive bias for Friday’s session.
Disclaimer: Data in this article is sourced from publicly available information and may not be accurate. Verify all data with NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) before making investment decisions. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on Natural Gas Price Prediction For Monday, 17 August 2026
What is the natural gas price prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026?
Ans. Neutral. MCX Natural Gas fell -0.60% to Rs 263.70 Thursday but held above the Rs 265 three-session floor (L: Rs 265.80). India’s CGD network structural demand provides a volume floor independent of spot price. Support is Rs 264-265.80 and resistance is Rs 268-270 on Friday.
How does crude oil’s -1.88% fall affect the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Crude falling to Rs 7,803 shifts the crude-gas relative price ratio ; gas becomes slightly more expensive on an energy-equivalent basis versus crude. However, India’s CGD network uses gas for fixed-volume city distribution (CNG, PNG) that doesn’t substitute with crude, keeping structural natural gas price prediction for Monday demand intact regardless of crude direction.
What is MCX Natural Gas support and resistance for the prediction for Monday?
Ans. Support is Rs 264-265.80 and Rs 259-262. Resistance is Rs 268-270 and Rs 273-276 on Friday.
Which analysts prepared the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, using Groww-confirmed Thursday data: MCX Natural Gas Rs 263.70 (-0.60%), H: Rs 267.70, L: Rs 265.80.
What stocks benefit in the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Reliance Industries (KG-D6 + O2C crude fall benefit), IGL (CGD volume growth structural demand) and ONGC (gas realization) are the equity plays on Friday.
