Sensex Prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026: Index Falls to 77,931 as TCS -0.80% Reverses Thursday’s Anomalous Green Close — Three-Day Break Sets Up the Week Two Narrative
- August 14, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: Predictions
Fri 14 Aug: Sensex 77,931.10 (-0.19%). Open:77,903. H:78,048.45. L:77,685.32. TCS -0.80%. ICICI +0.40%. Airtel +2.73%. Both Sensex and Nifty red. Monday 17 Aug next trading day.
Quick Answer
Sensex fell -0.19% to 77,931.10 on Friday as TCS reversed Thursday’s +1.08% bounce, falling -0.80% to Rs 2,356 and removing the primary positive that had kept Sensex alone in the green the previous day. Sensex and Nifty are now both negative for the week. The Sensex prediction for Monday is cautiously positive: Airtel’s +2.73% surge (Rs 1,992, H: Rs 2,005.80) and ICICI Bank’s +0.40% recovery provide Monday composition tailwinds, while crude’s weekend direction will determine Reliance’s contribution to the Sensex prediction for Monday.
The Sensex prediction for Monday for 17 August 2026 requires understanding Friday’s arithmetic first. Sensex fell -0.19% to 77,931.10 because TCS reversed its Thursday +1.08% bounce to fall -0.80% Friday (Rs 2,375 → Rs 2,356). TCS at approximately 4% Sensex weight meant its -0.80% subtracted roughly 85-95 Sensex points from the index. Simultaneously, ICICI Bank finally recovered +0.40% (Rs 1,406.80 → Rs 1,412.40) after two consecutive -1.74% sessions ; adding approximately 45-55 Sensex points. And Airtel‘s +2.73% surge to Rs 1,992 added approximately 50-60 Sensex points at 1.8% composition weight. The net arithmetic: TCS subtracted more than ICICI and Airtel added together ; hence the -0.19% Sensex close. for Monday’s session, if TCS stabilises (NASDAQ above 22,000 over the weekend) while ICICI and Airtel continue their Friday momentum, Monday’s Sensex arithmetic flips positive.
Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, frame the Sensex prediction for Monday through the lens of index composition arithmetic ; the four stocks that will determine Monday’s Sensex direction between them represent approximately 21% of Sensex weight: TCS (~4%), ICICI Bank (~7%), Reliance (~8%), and Airtel (~1.8%). The weekend’s primary task for Monday’s session is watching GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday and TCS’s first 5-minute candle to understand which direction these four stocks open Monday.
Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions
Friday Data for the Sensex prediction for Monday
| Index / Stock | Fri 14 Aug Close | Change | Signal for Monday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,354.85 | -0.17% | 5th consecutive negative week; L:24,298 ; 5-session floor at 24,265 intact; H:24,405.20 |
| Sensex | 77,931.10 | -0.19% | Both indices red; H:78,048; L:77,685; Independence Day weekend gap increases Monday cue impact |
| Bank Nifty | 57,459.10 | -0.31% | L:57,380.65; ICICI +0.40% partially offset SBI -1.62% drag; H:57,679.80 |
| Airtel | Rs 1,992 | +2.73%! | Week’s biggest stock move; H:Rs 2,005.80 (crossed Rs 2,000 intraday!); ARPU Rs 261 cycle |
| ICICI Bank | Rs 1,412.40 | +0.40% | Finally recovered after two -1.74% sessions; H:Rs 1,417.80; Rs 1,435 close on Monday |
| HDFC Bank | Rs 727 | +0.28% | Three-session Rs 722-724.50 floor held; H:Rs 729.60; approaching Rs 730 resistance |
| SBI | Rs 1,065.50 | -1.62% | H=Open Rs 1,082 ; shock distribution reversal; 5-session PSU recovery wiped by Friday |
| TCS | Rs 2,356 | -0.80% | IT Day 2 stalled; H:Rs 2,390; L:Rs 2,333.40; NASDAQ condition must hold Monday |
| HCL Tech | Rs 1,360.80 | -0.67% | H:1,374.90 | L:1,346.50; IT sector gave back Thursday gains broadly |
| Infosys | Rs 1,169.20 | -0.49% | H:1,174.10 | L:1,158.90; consolidating near two-week low |
| Reliance | Rs 1,308.70 | -0.63% | H=Open Rs 1,317.50; L:1,301.50; second consecutive opening-high session |
| Bajaj Finance | Rs 1,086 | -0.44% | H:Rs 1,098.50 (week’s high touched); L:1,085.20; Rs 1,080 floor intact |
| India VIX | Est. 14.20-14.60 | Rising | Above 14 caution zone; 3-day weekend effect amplifies Monday morning cues |
Sensex prediction for Monday: Technical Levels
Trend: Cautiously positive (composition math favours recovery) | Support: 77,650-77,750 (near Friday’s L:77,685), 77,400-77,500 | Resistance: 78,050-78,120 (Friday’s high), 78,300-78,500
Friday’s Sensex intraday high of 78,048.45 is the key resistance for Monday’s session. The index briefly touched this level before selling off ; if Monday opens above 78,050 and sustains it for the first 15 minutes, the resistance ceiling is broken and the Sensex prediction for Monday targets 78,300-78,500. The intraday low of 77,685.32 defines the support floor heading into Monday ; below 77,650, Sensex enters a fresh corrective phase on Monday.
The Four Sensex-Weight Stocks That Determine the Sensex prediction for Monday
Reliance Industries (~8% weight, Rs 1,308.70): Every 1% Reliance move equals approximately 130-145 Sensex points ; the largest single-stock impact on Monday. Friday’s Reliance fell -0.63% to Rs 1,308.70 in an H=Open=Rs 1,317.50 session (same opening-high distribution as Nifty’s five-day pattern). For Monday, crude’s Independence Day weekend direction determines Reliance’s gap: below Rs 7,600 crude (Iran deal) = Reliance O2C positive Monday; above Rs 8,000 (deal stall) = Reliance stays pressured. Ankit Jaiswal: Reliance above Rs 1,318 Monday open = Monday’s biggest single positive catalyst worth 130+ Sensex points.
ICICI Bank (~7% weight, Rs 1,412.40): Every 1% ICICI move equals approximately 70-80 Sensex points. ICICI recovered +0.40% Friday after two consecutive -1.74% sessions ; the Day 7 rotation is resuming. for Monday’s session, ICICI above Rs 1,422 at Monday’s open would signal the rotation has resumed with full conviction, adding 50-60 Sensex points through composition. Kunal Singla: ICICI above Rs 1,435 Monday close = the rotation is complete = best Sensex prediction for Monday banking contribution of the week.
TCS (~4% weight, Rs 2,356): TCS fell -0.80% Friday ; removing the primary positive that drove Thursday’s Sensex green close. NASDAQ above 22,000 over the Independence Day break is the mandatory condition for Monday’s TCS recovery and the Sensex prediction for Monday TCS-positive scenario. Each 1% TCS move = approximately 30-35 Sensex points. TCS above Rs 2,390 Monday (toward Friday’s intraday high of Rs 2,390) = Sensex prediction for Monday positive contribution of 30-35 points confirmed.
Airtel (~1.8% weight, Rs 1,992): Airtel’s +2.73% Friday surge to Rs 1,992 (H: Rs 2,005.80) is Monday’s surprise positive. At 1.8% weight, each 1% Airtel move = approximately 14-16 Sensex points. If Airtel opens above Rs 1,980 Monday and sustains the Rs 2,000 threshold through the session, it adds approximately 35-45 Sensex points through the ARPU-cycle re-rating that drove Friday’s breakout. Ankit Jaiswal: Airtel above Rs 2,000 Monday for the full session = Sensex prediction for Monday gets a consistent 30-35 point tailwind from this single stock.
Global Cues for the Sensex prediction for Monday
- NASDAQ and US tech over Independence Day weekend: TCS’s -0.80% Friday confirms NASDAQ did not hold above 22,000 Thursday night. for Monday’s session, NASDAQ needs to close above 22,000 on Friday night (US session) to trigger TCS Day 1 recovery restart Monday ; which would add 25-35 Sensex points from TCS weight alone on Monday.
- Crude oil and Reliance’s composition: Crude at Rs 7,779 Thursday and likely stabilising near Rs 7,700-7,800 Friday. for Monday’s session, Brent below USD 86/bbl over the weekend (Iran deal advancing) = Reliance O2C margin positive = 50-70 Sensex points from Reliance’s 8% weight. This is Monday’s highest-magnitude potential composition addition.
- GIFT Sensex at 9 AM Monday: Above 78,100 (above Friday’s close + above Friday’s H) = Sensex prediction for Monday gap-up; composition stocks are positioned bullishly. Below 77,800 = Sensex prediction for Monday negative gap; wait for 77,650 support to hold before entering.
Stock Picks for the Sensex prediction for Monday
| Stock | Fri Close | Entry Zone | Target | SL | Analyst | Thesis for Monday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airtel | Rs 1,992 | Rs 1,975-2,000 | Rs 2,038-2,060 | Rs 1,932 | Ankit Jaiswal | +2.73% Friday; ARPU Rs 261 + 5G subscriber momentum; H:2,005.80 = Rs 2,000 broken. Monday sustain above Rs 2,000 = momentum buy |
| ICICI Bank | Rs 1,412.40 | Rs 1,408-1,422 | Rs 1,435-1,448 | Rs 1,385 | Kunal Singla | Finally recovered +0.40% Friday after two distribution days. Monday is the decisive Rs 1,435 breakout attempt. H:1,417.80 on Friday = sellers at Rs 1,420-1,435 |
| HDFC Bank | Rs 727 | Rs 724-730 | Rs 742-750 | Rs 712 | Ankit Jaiswal | Three-session Rs 722-724.50 floor held; +0.28% Friday recovery. H:729.60 shows Rs 730 is next resistance for Monday |
| TCS | Rs 2,356 | Rs 2,342-2,365 | Rs 2,398-2,420 | Rs 2,290 | Kunal Singla | IT Day 2 stalled Friday. Monday is IT recovery restart ; conditional NASDAQ above 22,000. H:2,390 Friday = buyers present above Rs 2,380 |
| SBI | Rs 1,065.50 | Wait for Rs 1,068-1,075 after Monday open | Rs 1,082-1,090 | Rs 1,050 | Ankit Jaiswal | -1.62% Friday shock; H=Open=Rs 1,082 distribution. Monday open below Rs 1,060 = avoid; above Rs 1,070 + sustaining = cautious entry |
Screen All Sensex Stocks Live on Univest Screener
Sensex Strategy for Monday
- Watch the four composition stocks at 9:16 AM Monday: Ankit Jaiswal’s Sensex prediction for Monday strategy starts with TCS first-minute close. TCS above Rs 2,380 = Sensex has a 30+ point tailwind. ICICI above Rs 1,420 = another 45+ points. Reliance above Rs 1,318 = another 130+ points. All three positive simultaneously = Sensex prediction for Monday targets 78,300-78,500. Any two positive = Sensex prediction for Monday targets 78,050-78,120.
- Airtel above Rs 2,000 as the Sensex prediction for Monday momentum signal: If Airtel opens above Rs 2,000 and stays there for the first 30 minutes of Monday’s session, Kunal Singla reads it as the ARPU-cycle re-rating is institutionally confirmed. This adds 30-35 Sensex points and provides positive Sensex momentum that supports other composition stocks to perform.
- 77,650 as Monday’s floor: All Sensex long positions use 77,650 as the absolute floor reference for Monday. Below this level (below Friday’s session low of 77,685) means the Sensex prediction for Monday has broken its support and the correction extends toward 77,400-77,500. Exit all Sensex positions on a Monday intraday close below 77,650.
- The ICICI-Reliance Monday combination: Kunal Singla’s Sensex prediction for Monday higher-conviction trade is the ICICI Bank (Rs 1,408-1,422, target Rs 1,435) and Reliance (Rs 1,301-1,315, target Rs 1,350) combination ; these two stocks at approximately 15% combined Sensex weight mean if both recover 1-1.5% Monday, Sensex gains 200-250 points from these two alone. Monitor crude below Rs 7,700 and ICICI above Rs 1,420 as the Sensex prediction for Monday dual-catalyst confirmation.
Conclusion
The Sensex prediction for Monday 17 August 2026 is cautiously optimistic. Friday’s -0.19% close at 77,931.10 was driven by TCS reversing Thursday’s +1.08% ; a temporary composition shift that could fully reverse Monday if NASDAQ holds above 22,000 over the weekend. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies Reliance (8% weight), ICICI Bank (7% weight), TCS (4% weight) and Airtel (1.8% weight, now above Rs 2,000) as the four stocks whose Monday direction determines whether the Sensex prediction for Monday closes at 77,650 (floor) or 78,300-78,500 (resistance break). Support for Monday: 77,650-77,750. Resistance: 78,050-78,120 and 78,300-78,500. Watch GIFT Sensex above 78,100 at 9 AM as the single pre-market confirmation for Monday’s session bullish case.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Verify all data with NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on Sensex prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026
What is the Sensex prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026?
Ans. The Sensex prediction for Monday 17 August 2026 is cautiously positive. Sensex closed at 77,931.10 (-0.19%) on Friday ; its fifth consecutive negative session ; giving up Thursday’s +0.15% green close anomaly. Support for Monday is 77,650-77,750 (near Friday’s low of 77,685) and resistance is 78,050-78,120 (Friday’s high zone). The Sensex prediction for Monday turns bullish if Sensex opens above 78,050 after the Independence Day break. TCS recovery and Airtel’s +2.73% are the primary Sensex-weight catalysts for Monday.
Why did Sensex fall 0.19% on Friday in the Sensex prediction for Monday context?
Ans. Sensex fell -0.19% Friday after Thursday’s anomalous +0.15% green close. Thursday’s positive Sensex was driven by TCS +1.08%, but Friday’s TCS fell -0.80% ; removing the primary Thursday positive. The TCS Friday reversal explains 65-80% of Sensex’s Friday decline through its ~4% Sensex weight. for Monday’s session, TCS sustainability (NASDAQ above 22,000 over the weekend) is the single most important composition factor.
What are Sensex support and resistance for the Sensex prediction for Monday?
Ans. Sensex prediction for Monday support: 77,650-77,750 (near Friday’s intraday low 77,685) and 77,400-77,500 secondary. Resistance: 78,050-78,120 (Friday’s high zone, 78,048.45) and 78,300-78,500 extended. The Sensex prediction for Monday turns bearish only below 77,400 ; a level not seen this week.
Which analysts prepared the Sensex prediction for Monday?
Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Sensex prediction for Monday using Groww-confirmed Friday 14 August data: Sensex 77,931.10 (-0.19%), TCS Rs 2,356 (-0.80%), ICICI Bank Rs 1,412.40 (+0.40%), Reliance Rs 1,308.70 (-0.63%), Airtel Rs 1,992 (+2.73%).
Which stocks drive the Sensex prediction for Monday?
Ans. TCS (~4% weight, Rs 2,356): each 1% Monday TCS move equals ~30-35 Sensex points. ICICI Bank (~7% weight): each 1% ICICI move equals ~70-80 Sensex points ; the highest-impact Sensex stock Monday. Reliance (~8% weight, Rs 1,308.70): each 1% Reliance move equals ~130-145 Sensex points ; crude weekend direction determines this. Airtel (+2.73% Friday, ~1.8% weight): Monday sustain above Rs 2,000 adds 8-10 Sensex points. These four stocks collectively determine the Sensex prediction for Monday direction.
