Why Is Gold Price Under Pressure Ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali? What Should Interested Buyers Do? Experts’ Views and Target
- October 26, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
MCX December gold futures traded near Rs 1,42,873 per 10 grams around 2:56 PM on Monday, 26 Oct 2026, up 0.60%, but about 5.7% below the 9 Oct close of Rs 1,51,499 (my calculation). Spot gold held near $4,015 an ounce after a three-month low last week. Dhanteras falls on Friday, 6 Nov 2026 and Diwali on Sunday, 8 Nov, so buyers have 11 days to decide.
Quick Answer
The gold price is under pressure because markets expect tighter US monetary policy, with traders pricing about an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, while oil above $110 a barrel feeds inflation worries and a strong dollar adds weight. MCX gold has fallen about 5.7% since 9 Oct and its 14-day RSI near 29.7 shows oversold conditions, so a relief bounce is possible, but the trend is still down. The Fed meeting on 27 and 28 Oct is the next big trigger, and experts differ widely, with views from Rs 1.50 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh by Diwali. Buyers who need gold for weddings or rituals can stagger purchases, and investors can wait for the Fed outcome, and this is educational and not investment advice.
The gold price is under pressure ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali because tighter US policy expectations, a strong dollar and costly oil have pushed MCX gold down about 5.7% from its 9 Oct close, and buyers now have to choose between buying early and waiting. This is the time of year when demand for jewellery, coins and bars rises, which makes a falling market feel like an opening and a risk at the same time.
This article covers where MCX and spot gold stand, city-wise retail rates, the reasons for the fall, the Fed and data calendar, what experts say about the gold price target, technical levels, and a practical checklist for buyers. It is educational and not advice.
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Gold Price Today: Where MCX and Spot Gold Stand
| Gold price today: measure (around 2:56 PM) | Reading |
|---|---|
| MCX gold, December futures | Rs 1,42,873 per 10 grams, up 0.60% |
| Previous close (23 Oct) | Rs 1,42,024 |
| Day range | Rs 1,42,132 to Rs 1,43,100 |
| October high (9 Oct) | Rs 1,51,700 |
| October low (23 Oct) | Rs 1,41,334 |
| Change since 1 Oct close | Down 5.0% (my calculation) |
| Change since 9 Oct close | Down 5.7% (my calculation) |
| Distance from the reported record of Rs 1,77,590 | About 19.5% below (my calculation) |
| Spot gold | About $4,015 per ounce, up about 0.5% |
Last week was the weakest for the gold price in more than four months. International gold fell about 4% and slipped to the $4,000 mark, and MCX gold ended the week near Rs 1,42,024 after an intra-week low of Rs 1,41,334. Monday’s gain in the gold price is small and came on light volume, which is why analysts treat it as a pause and not a reversal.
| Gold rate today: city (26 Oct 2026) | 24K per 10 grams | 22K per 10 grams |
|---|---|---|
| Delhi | Rs 1,42,160 | Rs 1,30,313 |
| Mumbai | Rs 1,42,410 | Rs 1,30,543 |
| Kolkata | Rs 1,42,220 | Rs 1,30,368 |
| Bengaluru | Rs 1,42,520 | Rs 1,30,643 |
| Hyderabad | Rs 1,42,630 | Rs 1,30,744 |
| Chennai | Rs 1,42,820 | Rs 1,30,918 |
These gold rate today figures are base bullion rates, before GST, making charges and local levies, and trackers differ by a few hundred rupees. Jewellers quoted 22K gold at about Rs 13,070 to Rs 13,110 per gram, and one tracker showed 24K at about Rs 1,48,200 in Delhi on 20 Oct, so the retail gold rate has dropped roughly 4% in six days (my calculation, mixing two trackers).
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Why the Gold Price Is Under Pressure Before Dhanteras
| Driver of the gold price | What it means for gold |
|---|---|
| Fed rate-hike expectations | Traders price about an 80% chance of a hike by year-end, and higher rates make non-yielding gold less attractive |
| Strong US dollar | Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tension supports the dollar and makes gold costlier for other buyers |
| Oil and inflation | Brent crude oil near $112 to $114 a barrel after attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure keeps inflation worries alive |
| US Treasury yields | Higher yields last week raised the return on holding bonds instead of gold |
| Equity sell-off | A correction in AI-linked shares led investors to sell liquid holdings, including gold, to meet margin calls |
| Geopolitics | Stalled US-Iran talks add risk, but this has not been enough to lift gold |
The surprising part is that war risk and costly oil, which usually help gold, are hurting it this time. Higher oil raises inflation, inflation keeps central banks from cutting and the possibility of rate hikes pushes up yields and the dollar. That chain is why the gold price has fallen even with tension in West Asia.
Reports differ on yields. Business Today pointed to higher Treasury yields last week, while FXStreet said falling US yields on Monday capped the dollar’s recovery and helped gold bounce. I treat both as true for their own days. Analyst Jim Wyckoff also linked part of the fall to forced selling after a tech-stock sell-off, and said inflation concerns suggest central banks may not ease as quickly as hoped.
On Monday, oil eased after a statement that there would be no strikes that day, with Brent down about 1.9% to $114.5, and spot gold rose about 0.5%. A single quiet session does not change the picture, because Brent is still above $110 and the Fed decision is two days away.
Gold Price Before Dhanteras: Fed Meeting and Data Calendar
| Gold price before Dhanteras: date (2026) | Event |
|---|---|
| 27 and 28 Oct | US Federal Reserve policy meeting; decision and press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh on 28 Oct |
| 29 Oct | US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data |
| This week | Decisions from the ECB, Bank of Japan and RBNZ |
| 31 Oct evening and 1 Nov afternoon | Pushya Nakshatra windows that some buyers treat as auspicious, as per one report |
| 6 Nov | Dhanteras; one source gives the buying window as 6:18 AM to 9:17 PM, and timings vary by city |
| 8 Nov | Diwali |
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this week, which keeps the gold price in focus, and the market is debating a hike in December. That makes the tone of the press conference more important than the decision. A firm message on inflation would likely keep the pressure on the gold price, while any hint that the Fed is in no hurry could bring a quick rebound from oversold levels.
Gold Price Target: What Experts Say Before Diwali
| Expert or source | View on the gold price target | Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Ponmudi R, Enrich Money | Near-term bias is weak; oversold bounce possible | MCX support Rs 1,40,000 to Rs 1,41,000, then Rs 1,37,500 to Rs 1,38,300 if broken; spot support $3,970 to $4,000 and $3,900; spot resistance $4,070 to $4,100 and $4,170 to $4,200 |
| Anuj Gupta | Limited upside before Diwali | Gold near Rs 1.5 lakh |
| Ventura Securities | Range before Diwali, with easing or consolidation after Bhai Dooj | Rs 1.50 lakh to Rs 1.65 lakh |
| Ajay Kedia, Kedia Advisory | Most bullish, citing central bank buying, ETF inflows and geopolitical risk | Test of Rs 1.8 lakh by Diwali or year-end |
| HSBC | Cut its 2026 average forecast | $4,490 per ounce |
| Haresh Menghani, FXStreet | Caution until a bottom is confirmed | Spot resistance near $4,136, then $4,200 |
The spread of views on the gold price is wide. Measured against Rs 1,42,873, the Rs 1.50 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh range implies a move of about 5.0% to 26.0% (my calculation), and the Ventura midpoint of Rs 1.65 lakh implies 15.5%. Every one of these figures sits above today’s price, which tells you that the experts quoted expect the fall to fade, but they disagree on how fast. They are opinions and not forecasts, and the gold price target of any analyst can change after the Fed meeting.
The basis of the quotes is not always clear, since some trackers quote futures and others quote retail rates, so compare like with like. Weekly lows and highs from the exchange, which I use in the next section, are a cleaner check than any single price target.
Gold Price Technical Levels for MCX Gold
| Gold price: indicator (daily, MCX December) | Reading |
|---|---|
| 14-day RSI | About 29.7, oversold |
| Stochastic (%K and %D) | 14.8 and 8.2, oversold |
| 20-day EMA | About Rs 1,47,536, 3.2% above the price (my calculation) |
| 50-day average | About Rs 1,52,944, 6.6% above the price (my calculation) |
| SuperTrend | Sell; upper band Rs 1,48,136, lower band Rs 1,37,096 |
| MACD | Minus 2,452 against a signal of minus 1,955, negative |
| ADX and directional lines | ADX 51.5; plus DI 9.7, minus DI 45.7, a strong down trend |
| Bollinger bands | Lower Rs 1,42,541, middle Rs 1,47,706, upper Rs 1,52,871 |
| Average true range | About Rs 1,875 a day |
| Gold price: level | Rs per 10 grams | What it marks |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1,48,136 | SuperTrend upper band |
| Resistance 2 | 1,47,536 | 20-day EMA |
| Resistance 1 | 1,43,100 | Today’s high |
| Support 1 | 1,42,541 | Lower Bollinger band |
| Support 2 | 1,41,334 | 23 Oct low, the October low |
| Support 3 | 1,37,096 | SuperTrend lower band |
The daily picture for the gold price is one of a strong down trend meeting an oversold market. The RSI near 29.7 and the stochastic under 15 are the kind of readings that often come before a bounce, and the price is sitting on the lower Bollinger band. The ADX of 51.5 with minus DI far above plus DI says sellers are still in control, and the price is under both averages and the SuperTrend upper band.
A close above Rs 1,48,136 would be the first sign of a trend change, and a close below Rs 1,41,334 would open the way to the Rs 1,37,500 to Rs 1,38,300 zone that Enrich Money flags. With a daily range of about Rs 1,875, the gold price can move more than 1% in a day, so any levels you use should match your own risk limit. These are indicator readings and not recommendations.
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Gold Price Before Dhanteras: What Should Interested Buyers Do?
| Buyer type | Things to weigh | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Buying for a wedding or a Dhanteras ritual | A fixed date and a fixed need, with some relief from the lower gold price | Whether to buy part now and part after the Fed meeting |
| Jewellery buyer | Making charges and wastage add to the cost and reduce short-term investment value | BIS hallmark, six-digit HUID and an itemised bill |
| Investor using ETFs or digital gold | No storage, but provider credibility and costs matter | Charges, regulation and the provider’s track record |
| Small coin or bar buyer | Premiums and buy-back terms differ by seller | Buy-back price and purity certificate |
None of these rows is a recommendation. The common thread among the advice I found is to avoid assuming that the gold price has bottomed. Jewellery buyers for weddings or festivals may find some relief in the gold price, but Business Today cautions that prices may not have bottomed, and staggered buying spreads the purchase across price levels so that one lump sum does not carry all the risk.
A reported 15% customs duty on imported gold keeps landed costs high, so the Indian gold price does not fall one for one with global prices, and the rupee matters as well. Before you pay, ask for a bill that lists the gold rate, making charges and taxes separately, and check the hallmark and HUID. Buyers who prefer to wait can look at the Fed outcome on 28 Oct and the Pushya Nakshatra dates, and those who need to buy on Dhanteras can plan the day around the muhurat timings for their city.
Risks to Check Before You Buy Gold Now at This Gold Price
- Fed risk. A hawkish message on 28 Oct could push the gold price toward Rs 1,37,500 to Rs 1,38,300 on MCX.
- Oil and inflation. Brent near $114 keeps inflation fears high, and a spike would strengthen the rate-hike case.
- Dollar strength. Safe-haven demand for the dollar can cap any gold bounce.
- Equity-market stress. Margin-call selling can hit the gold price along with shares, even though gold is often seen as a hedge.
- Costs and quality. Making charges, premiums and unverified purity can erase the benefit of a lower gold price.
Conclusion
The gold price is under pressure before Dhanteras because rate-hike expectations, a firm dollar and costly oil outweigh festival demand, and MCX gold has fallen about 5.7% from its 9 Oct close to near Rs 1,42,873. Oversold readings allow for a bounce, but the trend is down until the Fed meeting is out of the way, so verify purity, compare costs, and decide according to your own needs and risk profile.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the gold price under pressure ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali?
Ans. Markets expect tighter US monetary policy, with traders pricing about an 80% chance of a Fed hike by year-end. A strong dollar, Brent crude near $112 to $114 and margin-call selling after an equity correction added to the pressure. MCX gold is down about 5.7% from its 9 Oct close of Rs 1,51,499.
What is the gold rate today in India?
Ans. On 26 Oct 2026, base 24K gold was about Rs 1,42,160 per 10 grams in Delhi and Rs 1,42,820 in Chennai, with 22K near Rs 1,30,313 to Rs 1,30,918. MCX December gold traded near Rs 1,42,873 around 2:56 PM. These are base rates before GST and making charges, and they change through the day.
What is the gold price target before Diwali?
Ans. Views differ. Ventura Securities expects Rs 1.50 lakh to Rs 1.65 lakh, Anuj Gupta sees limited upside near Rs 1.5 lakh and Ajay Kedia expects a test of Rs 1.8 lakh by Diwali or year-end. Enrich Money flags MCX support at Rs 1,40,000 to Rs 1,41,000. These are opinions and not forecasts.
When is Dhanteras 2026 and when should I buy gold?
Ans. Dhanteras falls on Friday, 6 Nov 2026 and Diwali on Sunday, 8 Nov. One source gives the Dhanteras buying window as 6:18 AM to 9:17 PM, with timings varying by city. Whether to buy now, stagger purchases or wait for the Fed decision on 28 Oct depends on your need and risk profile.
What can buyers do while the gold price is falling?
Ans. Buyers can split the purchase into parts while the gold price is volatile, check the BIS hallmark and HUID, compare making charges and ask for an itemised bill. Investors can look at gold ETFs or digital gold after checking costs and provider credibility. Please avoid assuming that the gold price has already bottomed.
What are the key technical levels for the gold price?
Ans. On MCX December gold, support sits near Rs 1,42,541, Rs 1,41,334 and Rs 1,37,096, and resistance near Rs 1,43,100, Rs 1,47,536 and Rs 1,48,136. The 14-day RSI is about 29.7 and the SuperTrend is on a sell signal. These readings are not forecasts.
Is this gold price article investment advice?
Ans. No. This article is educational. Prices, rates, dates and expert views come from news reports, exchanges and data providers and may change. Please check the facts and your own risk profile before you buy or invest.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
