UltraTech Cement Share Price Down 11% in a Year: InCred Equities Says Recovery Ahead
- October 22, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
UltraTech Cement share price was Rs 10,937 at 1:19 PM IST on 22 Oct 2026, up Rs 88 or 0.81% from the previous close of Rs 10,849, and is down about 11% over one year according to the headline. InCred Equities is reported to stay bullish. I could not find the InCred note itself, so its target is not given here. Q2 FY27 profit rose 21.3% to Rs 1,493.77 crore.
Quick Answer
UltraTech Cement share price is down about 11% in a year, but brokerages see a recovery driven by better cement prices and rising volumes. Q2 FY27 profit rose 21.3% to Rs 1,493.77 crore on revenue of Rs 23,295.07 crore, although profit missed a market estimate of Rs 1,705 crore. Seven brokerages quoted by one report have targets between Rs 13,000 and Rs 14,623, which is about 19% to 34% above Rs 10,937 by my calculation. The stock trades near 36 times trailing earnings, so a recovery depends on cement price hikes holding through the second half.
UltraTech Cement share price has lagged the market over the past year even though the company keeps growing volumes, because cement prices and fuel costs have squeezed margins. InCred Equities is among the brokerages that stay positive, arguing that the fall has created room for a recovery as pricing improves.
This article on UltraTech Cement share price sets out the latest Q2 FY27 numbers, what brokerages say, the valuation, the pricing outlook and the risks. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy, and I flag every point I could not verify.
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UltraTech Cement Share Price Today
| UltraTech Cement share price: point | Level on 22 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|
| Previous close | Rs 10,849 |
| Open | Rs 10,815 |
| Day high | Rs 10,976 |
| Day low | Rs 10,651 |
| Price at 1:19 PM | Rs 10,937, up 0.81% |
| Market capitalisation | About Rs 3,18,582 crore |
The stock has recovered from the day low of Rs 10,651 and is trading near the high, which is a firm sign on a day when the Sensex was lower. It traded at Rs 10,845 on 21 Oct after the Q2 results and touched Rs 10,959 that morning, so the stock has held roughly the same range for two sessions. The headline puts the fall over one year at about 11%, which implies a price near Rs 12,300 a year ago (my calculation); I could not confirm the 52-week range from a source.
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UltraTech Cement Share Price and the Q2 FY27 Results
| UltraTech Cement share price: Q2 FY27 metric | Q2 FY26 | Q2 FY27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from operations (Rs crore) | 19,606.93 | 23,295.07 | Up 18.8% |
| PBIDT (Rs crore) | 3,268 | 3,832 | Up 17.3% |
| PBIDT margin on net sales | 16.9% | 16.6% | Down about 23 basis points |
| Net profit to owners (Rs crore) | 1,231.58 | 1,493.77 | Up 21.3% |
| Domestic grey cement volume (million tonnes) | 31.58 | 35.94 | Up 13.8% |
| Capacity utilisation | 66% | 71% | Up 5 points |
Reuters put operating EBITDA at Rs 974 per tonne and said raw material costs rose 24%, while total expenses rose 17.8%. Profit of Rs 1,493.77 crore missed a market estimate of Rs 1,705 crore, so the UltraTech Cement share price did not rise sharply, though it gained about 2% to 3% on 21 Oct. The company’s own release shows slightly different consolidated figures, with net sales of Rs 23,024 crore and profit of Rs 1,501 crore, because the measures differ, so treat the two sets as separate.
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Risk: A profit miss against estimates can cap a rally in the stock even when growth is strong.
What Brokerages Say About the UltraTech Cement Share Price
| UltraTech Cement share price: brokerage | Target price | Change in target | Upside at Rs 10,937 (my calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Rs 14,380 | Raised from Rs 14,065 | About 31% |
| Prabhudas Lilladher | Rs 14,623 | Trimmed from Rs 14,691 | About 34% |
| BofA Securities | Rs 13,900 | Raised from Rs 13,400 | About 27% |
| Nomura | Rs 13,700 | Cut from Rs 13,900 | About 25% |
| Citi | Rs 13,200 | Cut from Rs 14,750 | About 21% |
| HSBC | Rs 13,200 | Revision unclear | About 21% |
| CLSA | Rs 13,000 | Cut from Rs 14,000 | About 19% |
| Elara Capital (Buy) | Rs 13,006 | Unchanged | About 19% |
Targets are mixed: some raised, some cut, but all sit well above the current price. Jefferies calls UltraTech a top pick and says a sustained recovery in cement pricing is the key catalyst. Elara notes that September exit realisations were 3% above the Q2 average and spot prices were 5% above it. InCred Equities is reported in the headline to be bullish, but I could not find its note, so I give no InCred target.
Why the UltraTech Cement Share Price Has Lagged
Three reasons stand out in the reports. Raw material costs rose 24% in the Q2 FY27 results, faster than the 18.8% rise in revenue, which held the PBIDT margin down at 16.6%. Profit missed the market estimate by about 12% (my calculation from Rs 1,493.77 crore against Rs 1,705 crore), which made the Q2 FY27 results look weaker than the growth suggests. And the target price cuts by Citi, CLSA and Nomura show that some analysts have trimmed expectations for the UltraTech Cement share price even though they still see upside.
Cement Prices and the Recovery Case for UltraTech Cement Share Price
| UltraTech Cement share price: recovery driver | What the reports say |
|---|---|
| Cement prices | Management opened the Q2 call with pricing, citing better momentum since mid-September |
| Cost pass-through | Management is confident it can raise prices to pass on cost inflation |
| EBITDA per tonne | Target of Rs 1,400 by March 2028, against Rs 974 in Q2 FY27 |
| Market share | About 31% to 32%, with the next phase of organic expansion due to be announced |
| Volume | Grey cement volume up 13.8% with utilisation at 71% |
The recovery case rests on price. If realisations keep rising, EBITDA per tonne can move from Rs 974 toward the Rs 1,400 goal and lift profit faster than volume. Moving from Rs 974 to Rs 1,400 would be a rise of about 44% per tonne (my calculation), which would matter far more than the 13.8% volume growth. Jefferies expects EBITDA per tonne to improve this year despite higher fuel costs, and its raised target price of Rs 14,380 shows that view. For the UltraTech Cement share price, the next test is whether the October price hikes stick.
Risk: Elara flags possible cost pressure in the second half from higher fuel prices amid the West Asia crisis, which could absorb part of any price rise.
UltraTech Cement Share Price Valuation
| UltraTech Cement share price: valuation measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Trailing EPS | Rs 299.80 |
| P/E at Rs 10,937 | About 36.5 times (my calculation) |
| Industry P/E | 29.06 times |
| Book value per share | Rs 2,497.20 |
| Price to book at Rs 10,937 | About 4.4 times (my calculation) |
| Return on equity | 10.66% |
| Dividend yield | 2.22% |
| Debt to equity | 0.31 |
At about 36 times earnings the stock is priced above the industry multiple of 29, which means investors already expect a margin recovery. A return on equity of 10.66% is modest for that multiple, so the case for a re-rating needs higher profit per tonne. The dividend yield of 2.22% and low debt add some comfort for a long-term holder.
UltraTech Cement Share Price: Buy, Hold or Wait?
| UltraTech Cement share price: investor type (my reading) | Points to weigh |
|---|---|
| Long-term investor | Market leadership, volume growth and targets above Rs 13,000 support the case, but the valuation is not low |
| New buyer | Staggered buying limits the risk of a price hike not sticking; watch Q3 margins |
| Short-term trader | The range of Rs 10,650 to Rs 10,976 is the near-term reference; breakout needs volume |
This is an educational view and not advice. A one-year fall of 11% with brokerage targets 19% to 34% higher looks attractive on paper, but targets are opinions and can be cut, as Citi and CLSA did this week.
What to Watch Next on the UltraTech Cement Share Price
- Cement price trends through October and November, which drive the UltraTech Cement share price
- Fuel costs and any further cuts or raises in the target price from brokerages
- The announcement of the next phase of organic expansion
- Q3 FY27 EBITDA per tonne against the Rs 974 in Q2
- Whether the UltraTech Cement share price holds above the Rs 10,651 day low
Conclusion
UltraTech Cement share price is about 11% lower over a year, but strong volumes, a 21% rise in Q2 profit and brokerage targets between Rs 13,000 and Rs 14,623 point to a recovery if cement prices hold. The valuation near 36 times earnings leaves limited room for error, and fuel costs are a risk. Read the filings and decide on your own horizon.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the UltraTech Cement share price down 11% in a year?
Ans. Cement prices and rising raw material and fuel costs have squeezed margins even as volumes grew. Q2 FY27 profit also missed a market estimate of Rs 1,705 crore, which weighed on sentiment.
What did InCred Equities say about UltraTech Cement?
Ans. The headline says InCred Equities stays bullish and sees a recovery ahead. I could not find the note, so I give no target from InCred and rely on the other brokerage views reported.
What were the Q2 FY27 results of UltraTech Cement?
Ans. Revenue was Rs 23,295.07 crore, up 18.8%, profit to owners was Rs 1,493.77 crore, up 21.3%, and grey cement volume rose 13.8% to 35.94 million tonnes. Capacity utilisation was 71%.
What is the target price for UltraTech Cement share price?
Ans. Targets reported range from Rs 13,000 to Rs 14,623, with Jefferies at Rs 14,380. These are brokerage opinions and not my forecast, and some were cut after the results.
Is the UltraTech Cement share price expensive?
Ans. At Rs 10,937 the P/E is about 36.5 times by my calculation against an industry P/E of 29.06, and the price to book is about 4.4. Return on equity is 10.66%, so the premium depends on a margin recovery.
What is the biggest risk to the UltraTech Cement share price?
Ans. Fuel costs. Elara warns of cost pressure in the second half from higher fuel prices amid the West Asia crisis, which could absorb cement price increases.
What EBITDA per tonne does UltraTech Cement aim for?
Ans. Management aims for Rs 1,400 per tonne by March 2028. Reuters put Q2 FY27 at Rs 974 per tonne, so the target implies about 44% more profit per tonne by my calculation.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
