Thermax Share Price Holds Near Rs 2,727 After 18% Post-Q2 Crash: Can the H2 FY27 Recovery Bet Beat Old Execution Hurdles?

Thermax Rs 2,727.30 (12 Nov, 12:43 PM), up 0.07%. Fell 18% on 6 Nov. Q2 profit Rs 114.54 Cr, down 4.28%. Order balance Rs 14,250 Cr. PL target Rs 3,402.

Thermax share price opened at Rs 2,750 on Thursday, 12 November 2026, touched Rs 2,781 and traded at Rs 2,727.30 at 12:43 PM, up 0.07% from Rs 2,725.40. The stock is down about 48% from its 52-week high of Rs 5,277.80 and sits just above its 52-week low of Rs 2,666.60.

The Thermax stock sell-off followed a Q2 FY27 print that missed on profit and orders, the second big post-results fall in three months. Investors in Thermax shares now want to know whether the H2 recovery the management is promising is credible, what the Thermax Q2 results say about execution, and where analysts and the charts stand.

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Thermax Q2 Results: What Went Wrong?

The Thermax Q2 results show revenue grew but profit did not. Consolidated revenue from operations rose 11.4% year on year to Rs 2,755.87 crore, while profit before tax fell 2.77% to Rs 168.86 crore and net profit fell 4.28% to Rs 114.54 crore. EBITDA margin was about 6.4% and gross margin slipped to 45.4% on an adverse mix and commodity costs, according to Prabhudas Lilladher.

Three items did the damage. Industrial Products faced steel prices up 10% to 15% and higher copper, plastics and crude-linked inputs, Green Solutions booked a Rs 15 crore impairment on a Tamil Nadu renewable project, and Industrial Infra continued to carry legacy projects. The Thermax stock reaction was sharp because the same issues drove the 16% fall after Q1 on 31 July.

Metric	Q2 FY27	Change
Revenue from operations	Rs 2,755.87 crore	Up 11.4% YoY
Profit before tax	Rs 168.86 crore	Down 2.8% YoY
Net profit (reported)	Rs 114.54 crore	Down 4.3% YoY
Adjusted profit (PL)	Rs 101.2 crore	Down 15.4% YoY
EBITDA margin (PL)	6.4%	Below PL estimate of 7.3%
Order inflow	Rs 3,259 crore	Down 8.2% YoY
Order balance	Rs 14,250 crore	Up 15.9% YoY

For Thermax shares, the order balance is the bright spot. At Rs 14,250 crore, it covers about 1.3 times trailing revenue and gives management the base for its H2 revenue guidance. Cash and investments of Rs 3,260 crore, up 20%, also cushion the balance sheet.

Segment View: Where the Margin Pressure Sits

Within the Thermax stock story, every major segment saw a lower margin than a year ago except Industrial Infra, which improved from a loss. Green Solutions was the weakest, with revenue up 50% but a negative EBIT margin.

Segment	Q2 revenue	YoY growth	EBIT margin (prior year)
Industrial Products	Rs 1,304 crore	Up 9.7%	6.1% (9.9%)
Industrial Infra	Rs 986 crore	Up 4.0%	5.7% (-1.6%)
Green Solutions	Rs 288 crore	Up 50.2%	-8.7% (6.1%)
Chemicals	Rs 226 crore	Up 18.1%	6.5% (9.8%)

Order inflow was uneven. Industrial Products fell 23% to Rs 1,237 crore as major orders were deferred to the third quarter, Industrial Infra rose 5% to Rs 1,523 crore on two captive power plant orders, and Green Solutions booked Rs 279 crore.

The H2 Recovery Bet: What Management Expects

The Thermax H2 recovery case is specific. Management expects H2 FY27 revenue above Rs 7,000 crore, a pick-up in bookings in the third and fourth quarters, at least one supercritical boiler order in FY27 and an Industrial Products margin of 9% to 10% for the full year. Prabhudas Lilladher models Q3 EBITDA margin near 9.7% and Q4 near 10.2%.

The arithmetic is demanding. First-half revenue was about Rs 5,059 crore, so H2 needs roughly Rs 3,500 crore a quarter, about 27% above Q2. Margins must also rise from 6.4% to near 10% while management flags Rs 30 crore to Rs 40 crore of input cost inflation and the Rs 15 crore impairment as drags. That is why the Thermax H2 recovery depends on execution rather than orders alone.

Old Execution Hurdles That Have Not Gone Away

For Thermax shares, execution is the repeating theme. In Q2, delivery of about Rs 280 crore fell short of the Rs 310 crore expected, shifting Rs 200 crore to Rs 300 crore of revenue into Q3. Delayed shipments and goods in transit added to the Industrial Products miss.

For the Thermax stock, the Industrial Infra legacy flue gas desulphurisation and large government projects with multi-year timelines still weigh on profit, although management expects change-order claims to offset overruns. Green Solutions is the other drag, with the Tamil Nadu project expected to post losses in Q3 and Q4, BioCNG under pressure and a partner search targeted by Q1 FY28. In data centre cooling, the first US order of slightly above US$20 million faced approval delays of one to three months.

Thermax Share Price Target: What Brokerages Say

Only one fresh target followed the Thermax Q2 results in the sources reviewed. Prabhudas Lilladher upgraded to Buy after the fall but cut its target and its FY28 and FY29 earnings estimates by 11.8% and 14.2%. The other targets below were set before the 6 November fall, so they are shown for context only.

Brokerage (date)	Rating	Target	Versus Rs 2,727.30
Prabhudas Lilladher (7 Nov 2026)	Buy (upgraded from Reduce)	Rs 3,402	24.7%
ICICI Securities (31 Jul 2026)	Buy	Rs 5,140	88.5%
Kotak (8 Jul 2026)	Sell	Rs 4,250	55.8%
Motilal Oswal (1 Aug 2026)	Sell	Rs 4,000	46.7%

Sell ratings with targets far above the market price show how quickly the Thermax share price target debate has shifted. Prabhudas Lilladher values the core business at 36 times Sep 2028 earnings plus Green Solutions at 3 times book value, and the stock now trades at about 40.9 times its FY28 earnings estimate.

Thermax Stock Data and Valuation

Parameter	Value (12 Nov 2026, 12:43 PM)
Stock (NSE: THERMAX)	Thermax Ltd
Current price	Rs 2,727.30 (up 0.07%)
Day open / high / low	Rs 2,750 / Rs 2,781 / Rs 2,723.20
52-week high / low	Rs 5,277.80 / Rs 2,666.60
Market cap	Rs 32,484 crore
PE ratio (industry PE)	55.59 (42.59)
Price to book / book value	5.92 / Rs 460.38
EPS (TTM) / ROE	Rs 49.04 / 10.73%
Dividend yield	0.07%
Index membership	BSE 500

On trailing earnings the Thermax stock still looks expensive, with a PE of 55.59 against an industry PE of 42.59 and a return on equity of only 10.73%. The valuation rests on earnings recovering, which is why the guidance for H2 matters so much.

Technical View: Support and Resistance for Thermax Shares

Momentum in Thermax shares remains weak. The 14-day RSI is 35.1, the price is about 12% below its 20-day average of Rs 3,088.86, and the MACD at -155.70 is below its signal line at -120.72. The SuperTrend indicator still points down, with resistance near Rs 3,247.11.

The 52-week low of Rs 2,666.60 is the nearest support reference for Thermax shares, and the SuperTrend lower band near Rs 2,345.94 is the next technical marker. Resistance sits at the day high of Rs 2,781 and then the 20-day average. These are technical reference levels, not recommendations.

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Should You Buy Thermax Shares After the Crash?

The case for Thermax shares is recovery from a low base. The stock is down about 48% from its peak, the order balance is up 16%, cash and investments are Rs 3,260 crore, and management has named concrete H2 triggers such as deferred orders, a supercritical boiler order and data centre cooling demand.

The case against the Thermax stock is a track record of misses. Profit has now disappointed in Q1 and Q2, the PE is above the industry average, Green Solutions is still loss-making and the H2 margin target needs a sharp step up. Investors who want exposure often wait for evidence in the Q3 numbers or scale in gradually, but the right choice depends on individual goals.

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Key Risks to Watch in the Thermax Stock

Costs are the first risk for the Thermax stock. Steel, copper and plastics prices can keep margins below the 9% to 10% target, and customers may resist price hikes, which could slow orders. Execution is the second, with legacy infra projects and approval delays able to push revenue out again.

Green Solutions is the third risk for Thermax shares, with further impairments possible if the Tamil Nadu project and BioCNG do not turn around. A higher tax rate of about 33% and depreciation up 36% also weigh on earnings.

Conclusion

The Thermax H2 recovery bet rests on a Rs 14,250 crore order balance, guidance of more than Rs 7,000 crore of H2 revenue and a margin rebound toward 10%. Against that, the company has missed in two straight quarters, the Thermax share price has halved from its peak and execution problems keep recurring. Watch Q3 order inflow, margins and Green Solutions losses before drawing conclusions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the Thermax share price fall 18% after Q2 FY27 results?

Ans. Thermax shares fell 18.04% to Rs 2,723 on 6 November 2026 after Q2 FY27 results missed estimates on profit and orders. Consolidated net profit fell 4.28% to Rs 114.54 crore even though revenue rose 11.4% to Rs 2,755.87 crore, because input costs, an adverse product mix and a Rs 15 crore renewable project impairment squeezed margins. Order inflow also fell about 8% year on year as major Industrial Products orders slipped to the third quarter.

What is the Thermax share price target after the Q2 results?

Ans. Prabhudas Lilladher upgraded Thermax to Buy from Reduce on 7 November 2026 with a target of Rs 3,402, cut from Rs 3,952, which implies about 24.7% from the NSE price of Rs 2,727.30. Older targets were set before the fall, including Rs 5,140 from ICICI Securities with a Buy and Rs 4,000 from Motilal Oswal with a Sell, both in late July and early August 2026. Targets are analyst estimates and not guaranteed returns.

What is Thermax’s H2 FY27 recovery guidance?

Ans. Management expects H2 FY27 revenue of more than Rs 7,000 crore, bookings to pick up in the third and fourth quarters, and an Industrial Products margin of 9% to 10% for the full year. Against first-half revenue of about Rs 5,059 crore, that needs quarterly revenue of roughly Rs 3,500 crore, about 27% above the Q2 level of Rs 2,756 crore. Delivering it depends on execution, input costs and order timing.

What are the main execution hurdles for Thermax?

Ans. Execution hurdles include legacy flue gas desulphurisation and large government projects in Industrial Infra, higher steel, copper and plastics costs in Industrial Products, losses and impairments in Green Solutions, and approval delays for US data centre orders of one to three months. Q2 execution of about Rs 280 crore fell short of the Rs 310 crore management expected, pushing Rs 200 crore to Rs 300 crore of revenue into the third quarter.

Is the Thermax share price a buy after the fall?

Ans. The Thermax stock is down about 48% from its 52-week high of Rs 5,277.80, and the order balance of Rs 14,250 crore up 16% supports the recovery story. However, the PE of 55.59 is above the industry PE of 42.59, the return on equity is only 10.73% and two straight quarters have missed expectations. This is not investment advice, so consult a SEBI-registered advisor before deciding.

What are the key support and resistance levels for Thermax shares?

Ans. As technical references, the 52-week low of Rs 2,666.60 is the nearest support, with the SuperTrend lower band near Rs 2,345.94 below it. Resistance sits at the day high of Rs 2,781, then the 20-day average of Rs 3,088.86 and the SuperTrend level of Rs 3,247.11. The 14-day RSI of 35.1 shows weak momentum but not yet an oversold extreme. These are not buy or sell recommendations.

How strong is the Thermax order book?

Ans. Thermax ended Q2 FY27 with an order balance of Rs 14,250 crore, up 16% from Rs 12,300 crore a year earlier and above Rs 14,018 crore in Q1, with Industrial Infra holding about 52% of it. Quarterly order inflow was Rs 3,259 crore, down 8.2%, with Industrial Products inflow down 23% to Rs 1,237 crore. Cash and investments stood at Rs 3,260 crore, up 20% year on year.