Vedanta Shares: Should You Buy After Hindustan Zinc Beats Q2 Estimates? Emkay Keeps Buy and a Rs 350 Target
- October 21, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: News
Emkay Global kept its Buy rating on Vedanta with an unchanged target of Rs 350 after subsidiary Hindustan Zinc reported a 142% rise in Q2 FY27 profit to Rs 6,412 crore on 19 Oct 2026. Vedanta shares traded at Rs 236.85 on 21 Oct (down 2.61%), so the target is about 47.8% above the price (my calculation). Hindustan Zinc itself opened about 4% higher on 21 Oct and then fell to Rs 525.00, down 2.49%. Emkay’s valuation method was not stated in the report I read, and the target is a broker view and not a promise.
Quick Answer
Vedanta shares are rated Buy by Emkay Global with an unchanged target price of Rs 350, kept after Hindustan Zinc reported Q2 FY27 net profit of Rs 6,412 crore, up 142% from Rs 2,649 crore, and a record EBITDA of about Rs 9,285 crore. Emkay says Hindustan Zinc is about 90% of Vedanta’s FY27 EBITDA, so the earnings beat feeds straight into Vedanta, and it sees more upside if zinc and silver prices stay near spot levels. At Rs 236.85 on 21 Oct the Emkay target is about 47.8% above the price (my calculation), but Vedanta shares fell 2.61% on the day even after the results, and the report did not state how the target was valued. Whether to buy depends on your view of zinc and silver prices, the group’s structure and your own risk limit, so treat the call as one input and not as advice.
Vedanta shares moved lower on 21 Oct 2026 even though the main earnings driver, Hindustan Zinc, posted a record quarter. Hindustan Zinc’s Q2 FY27 results on 19 Oct showed profit up 142%, revenue up about 77% and a zinc production cost that fell 29% year on year, and the stock opened about 4% higher on Wednesday before selling off.
This article on Vedanta shares covers the Hindustan Zinc results, Emkay’s Buy call and what it assumes, how Vedanta shares and Hindustan Zinc trade today, the other broker views, the risks and what to check before you buy. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any share.
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Hindustan Zinc Q2 FY27 Results Behind Vedanta Shares
| Vedanta shares: Hindustan Zinc Q2 FY27 item | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Net profit | Rs 6,412 crore, up 142% from Rs 2,649 crore |
| Revenue from operations | Rs 15,093 crore, up 77% from Rs 8,549 crore (another report says Rs 14,582 crore) |
| EBITDA | Record Rs 9,285 crore, up 108% from Rs 4,467 crore |
| EBITDA margin | About 62%, against 52% a year earlier |
| EBITDA growth quarter on quarter | About 14.2%, against a consensus of 6.9% |
| Earnings per share | Rs 15.2, against Rs 6.3 |
| Zinc cost of production (excluding royalty) | $703 a tonne, down from $994 a year earlier |
| Silver sales | Rs 4,111 crore, up 141% |
| Zinc and lead sales | Rs 8,224 crore (up 54%) and Rs 1,130 crore (up 35%) |
The net margin works out to about 42.5% (my calculation from Rs 6,412 crore and Rs 15,093 crore). The two reports I read give different revenue figures and a slightly different margin (62% against 61.3%), so check the filing for the exact numbers behind the Vedanta shares story. The company credited higher metal prices, higher output, better by-product realisation and a stronger dollar. Silver sales more than doubled, which shows how much the result depends on one by-product.
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What Emkay Says About Vedanta Shares
| Vedanta target price: Emkay point | What the report says |
|---|---|
| Vedanta target price and rating | Buy with an unchanged target of Rs 350 |
| Upside from Rs 236.85 | About 47.8% (my calculation) |
| Hindustan Zinc FY27E EBITDA | Rs 30,200 crore, about 90% of Vedanta’s EBITDA |
| Implied Vedanta FY27E EBITDA | About Rs 33,600 crore (my calculation) |
| Price assumptions | Zinc and silver about 23% and 28% above the FY26 average |
| Spot prices cited | Zinc $3,731 a tonne and silver $58 an ounce, which would add upside |
| Valuation method | Not stated in the report I read |
The 90% share is a useful cross-check. The data I pulled shows Vedanta’s June 2026 quarter EBITDA at Rs 9,043 crore, and Hindustan Zinc’s June quarter EBITDA works out to about Rs 8,130 crore (my calculation from the Q2 figure and the 14.2% quarterly growth), which is also about 90%. That fits Emkay’s view that Vedanta shares are now mostly a Hindustan Zinc play. I did not find Vedanta’s own September-quarter result in the data, so Emkay’s view of the parent’s numbers is not something I could check.
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Risk: A target of Rs 350 depends on zinc and silver prices that are 23% and 28% above last year’s average, so a fall in either would cut the earnings Emkay builds on.
Vedanta Shares and Hindustan Zinc Today
| Vedanta shares: market reading on 21 Oct 2026 | Vedanta | Hindustan Zinc |
|---|---|---|
| Price at about 4:44 PM IST | Rs 236.85, down 2.61% | Rs 525.00, down 2.49% |
| Previous close | Rs 243.20 | Rs 538.40 |
| Open and day high | Rs 247.00 and Rs 247.00 | Rs 559.85 and Rs 559.85 |
| Day low | Rs 233.10 | Rs 520.60 |
| Fall from the opening price | About 4.1% (my calculation) | About 6.2% (my calculation) |
| Volume | About 1.22 crore shares | About 1.06 crore shares |
| Market capitalisation (data provider) | About Rs 95,022 crore | About Rs 2,27,259 crore |
| Price to book and return on equity | 1.91 and 9.55% | 10.04 and 69.51% |
| Debt to equity | 0.56 | 0.22 |
| Earnings per share (trailing) | Rs 73.03 as shown | Rs 40.39 |
Both stocks opened higher and sold off, which suggests that traders used the gap up to book profit. Hindustan Zinc’s open at Rs 559.85 sat right at the Rs 557 to Rs 560 resistance that KC Securities named (my reading). The data provider also shows Vedanta at a P/E of 3.33 and a dividend yield near 14%, but those figures probably mix pre-demerger earnings and dividends with the new share price, so I do not rely on them for Vedanta shares. Several group companies now trade separately, including Vedanta Aluminium Metal at Rs 355.80, Vedanta Power at Rs 30.30 and Vedanta Oil and Gas at Rs 29.19, and all fell more than 4% on the day.
Risk: Since Vedanta shares now rest mostly on one subsidiary, a weak day in Hindustan Zinc, as on 21 Oct, shows up directly in the parent.
Other Broker Views on Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta Shares
| Vedanta shares: broker view | Rating and level | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Emkay Global on Vedanta | Buy, target Rs 350 | Basis not stated |
| Systematix on Hindustan Zinc | Buy, SOTP target Rs 677 (up from Rs 669) | Zinc and lead valued at 9 times 1HFY29E EV/EBITDA |
| KC Securities on Hindustan Zinc | Hold for holders; targets Rs 575 and Rs 590; stop-loss Rs 490 | Technical levels |
Systematix raised its FY27 EBITDA estimate for Hindustan Zinc by 23% and FY28 by 9%. Its Rs 677 target is about 29% above Rs 525 (my calculation), and the company’s guidance for FY27 zinc cost of production was cut to $825 to $850 a tonne from $975 to $1,000. Silver production guidance for FY27 is 680 tonnes, rising to about 730 to 750 tonnes in FY28. These estimates sit behind the cost and volume trend that supports Vedanta shares.
Should You Buy Vedanta Shares? What to Check
| Vedanta shares: check | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Zinc and silver prices | Emkay’s numbers use prices well above FY26 averages |
| Hindustan Zinc dependence | About 90% of EBITDA comes from one subsidiary |
| Cost trend | Zinc cost of $703 a tonne is far below the guided $825 to $850, so Q2 may be a high point |
| Valuation basis | Emkay’s method was not stated, so the Rs 350 target cannot be tested |
| Parent results | Vedanta’s own September-quarter numbers were not in my data |
| Your risk limit | A broker target is a view and carries no guarantee |
The positives for Vedanta shares are clear: record profit at the main subsidiary, a falling cost base and a broker who sees about 47.8% upside. The cautions are just as clear. The stock fell on the day of good news, the cost level in Q2 is below management’s own guidance for the year and metal prices drive most of the profit. A buyer should decide in advance how much loss to accept.
What to Watch Next for Vedanta Shares
- Vedanta’s own September-quarter results and dividend announcements
- Zinc and silver price moves against the $3,731 a tonne and $58 an ounce spot levels Emkay cites
- Whether Hindustan Zinc holds above Rs 520 and clears the Rs 557 to Rs 560 resistance
- Hindustan Zinc’s progress on the Gundlupet rare earth block after the letter of intent
- Any further broker notes that disclose how the Rs 350 target is valued
Conclusion
Vedanta shares carry a Buy rating from Emkay with an unchanged Rs 350 target after Hindustan Zinc’s record Q2 FY27, but they fell 2.61% to Rs 236.85 on 21 Oct. The upside is large on paper at about 47.8%, yet the valuation method is unknown and the profit leans on metal prices. Read the filings, track zinc and silver and size any position to your own risk.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I buy Vedanta shares after the Hindustan Zinc Q2 results?
Ans. That depends on your view and risk limit, and this article is not a recommendation. Emkay rates Vedanta shares Buy with a Rs 350 target, but the stock fell 2.61% on 21 Oct and the target’s valuation method was not stated. Check zinc and silver prices and the filings first.
What is the Emkay Vedanta target price after the results?
Ans. Emkay Global has a Buy rating with an unchanged target of Rs 350. Against Rs 236.85 that is about 47.8% upside (my calculation). The report I read did not state how the target is valued.
How did Hindustan Zinc do in Q2 FY27?
Ans. Net profit rose 142% to Rs 6,412 crore, revenue rose about 77% to Rs 15,093 crore and EBITDA reached a record Rs 9,285 crore. Zinc cost of production fell to $703 a tonne. Another report gives revenue as Rs 14,582 crore, so check the filing.
Why are Vedanta shares linked so closely to Hindustan Zinc?
Ans. Emkay estimates that Hindustan Zinc contributes about 90% of Vedanta’s FY27 EBITDA, at Rs 30,200 crore. My own cross-check of the June quarter data gives a similar share, so earnings at Hindustan Zinc move Vedanta shares.
Why did Vedanta shares fall on 21 Oct 2026?
Ans. Vedanta shares closed down 2.61% at Rs 236.85 after opening at Rs 247. I found no company news that explains the fall, and Hindustan Zinc also reversed after opening about 4% higher. Profit booking is one reading, but it is unconfirmed.
What are other brokers saying about Hindustan Zinc?
Ans. Systematix has a Buy with a Rs 677 SOTP target, and KC Securities gives targets of Rs 575 and Rs 590 with a stop-loss at Rs 490 for fresh buyers. Both views are on Hindustan Zinc and not on Vedanta shares directly.
What are the main risks for Vedanta shares?
Ans. The main risks are lower zinc or silver prices, dependence on one subsidiary, a cost level that management does not expect to hold and an unclear valuation basis for the Rs 350 target. Group structure changes can also affect the price.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
