Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27
- July 2, 2026
- Posted by: Neeraj Pandey
- Category: News
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Rs 108.94 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 106.00 to Rs 157.20. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 73.5 cr, up 35%; revenue Rs 3,586 cr.
Quick Answer
The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 92 to Rs 120, which is between 16 percent below and 10 percent above the last close of Rs 108.94, with bull and bear cases of Rs 156 to Rs 180 and Rs 44 to Rs 55. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers reported Q1 FY27 consolidated profit up 35 percent to Rs 73.53 crore on revenue up 6.4 percent to Rs 3,585.71 crore, after absorbing a one-time Rs 171.54 crore charge for revised urea energy norms. Industrial chemicals revenue rose 85 percent, the fertiliser segment lost Rs 150.3 crore, and the stock has fallen for six straight weeks to sit 31 percent below its November 2025 high. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario.
The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 92 to Rs 120 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 108.94 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 30.7 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 157.20 and 2.8 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 106.00, and the stock moved down 25.7 percent over the past year. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers, or RCF, is a state-owned maker of urea, complex fertilisers and industrial chemicals. The Government of India holds about 75 percent. Debt to equity is 0.81 and the dividend yield is 2.15 percent.
Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results on 13 August showed profit up 35 percent, the board approved debentures of up to Rs 1,100 crore, and the stock fell from about Rs 124.50 to Rs 106.25 over six weeks. This Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers stock analysis covers the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price today, the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers buy or sell view.
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What Is the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target for 2026?
The 2026 target for Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers shares is Rs 92 to Rs 120 in the Univest base case, which is -15.5% to +10.2% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 156 to Rs 180 and the bear case is Rs 44 to Rs 55. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case
| Scenario | FY28E EPS | Target Multiple | Price Target (Rs) | Move vs Rs 108.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Rs 12 | 13x to 15x | 156 to 180 | +43.2% to +65.2% |
| Base Case | Rs 9.2 | 10x to 13x | 92 to 120 | -15.5% to +10.2% |
| Bear Case | Rs 5.5 | 8x to 10x | 44 to 55 | -59.6% to -49.5% |
FY28 EPS of Rs 9.20 in the base case compares with trailing EPS of Rs 8.09 and assumes the Thal energy norm charge does not repeat and industrial chemicals profit holds. The stock trades at about 11.8 times the base estimate, near the lower end of the range for fertiliser companies. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target range around the current price.
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price today is Rs 108.94 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 6,002 crore, and the stock trades at 13.5 times earnings against an industry average of 21.7 times. The Univest base case Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target of Rs 92 to Rs 120 is -15.5% to +10.2% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
| Parameter | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NSE Ticker | RCF | BSE code 524230 |
| Sector | Fertilisers and industrial chemicals | Per Univest sector classification |
| Last Close (NSE) | Rs 108.94 | 6 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-Week High | Rs 157.20 | CMP is 30.7% below |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 106.00 | CMP is 2.8% above |
| 1-Year Return | About -26% | Weekly close Rs 146.65 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 108.94 |
| Market Capitalisation | Rs 6,002 crore | Small cap PSU fertiliser company |
| Trailing P/E | About 13.5x | Industry P/E about 21.70x |
| P/B Ratio | About 1.17x | Book value Rs 92.83 per share |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 8.09 | Trailing twelve months |
| Return on Equity | About 8.4% | Debt to equity 0.81 |
| Dividend Yield | About 2.15% | Final dividend Rs 1.34 per share |
| 12-Month Target (Base Case) | Rs 92 to Rs 120 | Univest base case |
| Bull Case | Rs 156 to Rs 180 | +43.2% to +65.2% |
| Bear Case | Rs 44 to Rs 55 | -59.6% to -49.5% |
How Did Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Perform in Q1 FY27?
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers reported Q1 FY27 consolidated profit of Rs 73.53 crore, up 35 percent from Rs 54.43 crore, on revenue from operations of Rs 3,585.71 crore, up 6.4 percent. Profit before tax rose 35 percent to Rs 101.42 crore. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Profit | Rs 73.53 crore | Up 35% from Rs 54.43 crore |
| Revenue from Operations | Rs 3,585.71 crore | Up 6.4% YoY |
| Fertiliser Revenue | Rs 2,567.8 crore | Up 19.8% |
| Industrial Chemicals Revenue | Rs 708.2 crore | Up 85.4% |
| Trading Revenue | Rs 306.1 crore | Down 63.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 6.1% | Against 4.7% a year ago |
A one-time charge of Rs 171.54 crore came from a revision in urea energy norms at the Thal unit, Rs 132.52 crore for FY26 and Rs 39.02 crore for Q1. The fertiliser segment posted a loss of Rs 150.3 crore while industrial chemicals earned Rs 300.5 crore. The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
Why Is RCF Share Price Down 31 Percent From Its High?
RCF shares are about 31 percent below the Rs 157.20 high of the week of 17 November 2025. The stock fell 6.5 percent in the week of 2 March, then jumped on volume of 11.1 crore shares in the week of 9 March, and hit a low of Rs 106 in the week of 30 March.
After a bounce to Rs 139 in June it made lower weekly closes for six straight weeks from the week of 17 August, from about Rs 124 near the results to Rs 106.80 in the week of 28 September. It closed at Rs 108.94, near the 52-week low. The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target scenarios below account for that move.
Key Catalysts for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target in 2026
4 catalysts matter most for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target, and sector tailwinds in Fertilisers and industrial chemicals are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.
1. Industrial Chemicals
Revenue rose 85 percent to Rs 708.2 crore with Rs 300.5 crore of segment profit. This arm carries group profit. If it plays out, the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target moves toward the top of the base range.
2. Fertiliser Revenue
Fertiliser revenue rose 19.8 percent to Rs 2,567.8 crore. Higher volume helps even with a segment loss. Strength here would support the upper end of the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
3. EBITDA Margin
EBITDA margin rose to 6.1 percent from 4.7 percent. A repeat without the one-time charge would lift profit. Delivery on this point keeps the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target on track.
4. Dividend
The final dividend of Rs 1.34 per share and a yield of about 2.2 percent support the stock. Better news here would lift the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target toward the bull case.
What Are the Key Risks to the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target?
The main risks are subsidy norms, gas costs, a loss-making fertiliser segment and state ownership. Each can pull the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target lower.
Subsidy Norms
Urea energy norm revisions cost Rs 171.54 crore in one quarter. More revisions would hit profit again. If it materialises, the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target would slip toward the bear case.
Fertiliser Segment Loss
The fertiliser segment lost Rs 150.3 crore in Q1. Profit relies on industrial chemicals. This is the main downside risk to the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
Trading Income
Trading revenue fell 63.6 percent. It carries thin margin but adds volume. A worsening here would cut the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target toward the low end of the range.
Earnings Reset
A bear case EPS of Rs 5.50 at 8 times would put the price near Rs 44. Watch it closely, because it can pull the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target lower quickly.
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 106 to Rs 113 since mid-September, with the stock near the lower end.
The first support level is Rs 106.25 to Rs 106.30, the lows of the weeks of 28 September and 5 October. Below that, Rs 106 is the 52-week low and there is no weekly support under it.
The first resistance level is Rs 109.39 to Rs 111.90, the highs of the weeks of 5 and 28 September. Above that, Rs 112.57 and Rs 117.59 mark the highs of the weeks of 14 and 7 September. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term
Short-Term Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)
In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 106 and Rs 112. A close above Rs 112 would put Rs 117 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 106 would open a fresh 52-week low. The Q2 FY27 results are the main trigger. This range anchors the near-term Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
12-Month and 2027 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target
The 12-month target price is Rs 92 to Rs 120, valued on 10 to 13 times FY28 EPS of Rs 9.2. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 44 in the bear case to Rs 180 in the bull case.
Long-Term Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030
For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 110 to Rs 169. This assumes EPS of Rs 11 in FY29 and Rs 13 in FY30 and a multiple of 10 to 13 times. It needs urea subsidy norms to stay stable, industrial chemicals profit to hold and gas costs to stay in check. This is the long-term Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target in the Univest scenarios.
Bull Case and Bear Case for Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target
Bull Case Rs 156 to Rs 180
The bull case of Rs 156 to Rs 180 for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target needs EPS of Rs 12 and the market to pay 13 to 15 times for it. It is +43.2% to +65.2% from the last close.
Bear Case Rs 44 to Rs 55
The bear case of Rs 44 to Rs 55 for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target equals 8 to 10 times FY28 EPS of Rs 5.5 and sits below the Rs 106 low. It is -59.6% to -49.5% from the last close.
Is Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers a Good Buy at Rs 109? Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Buy or Sell View
Whether Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers is a buy at Rs 108.94 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 16 percent below and 10 percent above the current price, the stock is 31 percent below its high, and the open question is the fertiliser segment loss. The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target range is the starting point for that decision.
Long-term holders may focus on subsidy norms, industrial chemicals profit and the dividend, and treat Rs 106 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 112. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers buy or sell view is educational.
How to Invest in Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Shares
Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target range on the Univest Screener.
Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
Step 3: Search for RCF on the NSE or 524230 on the BSE in your trading app.
Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 44 is bearable.
Step 5: Track subsidy norms, segment profit and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
Conclusion
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers closed at Rs 108.94 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 92 to Rs 120, a bull case of Rs 156 to Rs 180 and a bear case of Rs 44 to Rs 55. Q1 FY27 delivered profit up 35 percent despite a Rs 171.54 crore one-time charge. The main risks are subsidy norms, the fertiliser segment loss and gas costs.
The stock is 30.7 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 16 percent below and 10 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are subsidy norms, segment profit and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 106 and Rs 112 levels. Re-check the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026
What is the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2026?
Ans. The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 92 to Rs 120 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 156 to Rs 180 and a bear case of Rs 44 to Rs 55. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.
What is the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2027?
Ans. The Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target for 2027 is Rs 92 to Rs 120 in the base case, valued on 10 to 13 times FY28 EPS of Rs 9.2. The scenario range runs from Rs 44 to Rs 180.
Is Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers a good buy at Rs 108.94?
Ans. Whether Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers is a good buy at Rs 108.94 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target. Profit rose 35 percent and the stock trades below the industry multiple with a 2.2 percent yield, but subsidy norms and the fertiliser loss are risks. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
What are the key risks to the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target?
Ans. The key risks to the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target are subsidy norms, fertiliser segment loss, trading income and earnings reset. Urea energy norm revisions cost Rs 171.54 crore in one quarter. More revisions would hit profit again.
What are the key catalysts for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target?
Ans. The key catalysts for the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target are industrial chemicals, fertiliser revenue, ebitda margin and dividend. Revenue rose 85 percent to Rs 708.2 crore with Rs 300.5 crore of segment profit. This arm carries group profit.
Where can I track Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price today and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target updates?
Ans. You can track the live Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price, results and any change to the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.
What are Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers’s 52-week high and low?
Ans. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers’s 52-week high is Rs 157.20 and its 52-week low is Rs 106.00, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 108.94 the stock is 30.7 percent below the high and 2.8 percent above the low. Both levels frame the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target.
How to buy Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers shares?
Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for RCF on the NSE or 524230 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 44 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.
