ONGC vs Oil India After Kotak Raises FY27 Crude Forecast to $100: How Each Upstream Stock Reads the Number
- October 29, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
Kotak Institutional Equities raised its FY27 crude oil forecast to $100 a barrel from $90 on 29 Oct 2026, keeping $75 for FY28; at 2:13 PM IST ONGC traded at Rs 225.08 (up 0.08%) and Oil India at Rs 451.80 (up 0.96%), and in Q1 FY27 ONGC’s standalone profit rose 112% while Oil India’s standalone profit rose about 253%.
Quick Answer
ONGC vs Oil India looks similar on crude prices, but the two companies reached different Q1 FY27 results. ONGC earned a standalone profit of Rs 17,034 crore on a net crude realisation of $99.45 a barrel, yet its consolidated profit was only Rs 6,554 crore because subsidiary HPCL lost Rs 12,265 crore. Oil India earned a standalone profit of Rs 2,870 crore, with crude production up about 11%. Kotak’s forecast of $100 for FY27 supports upstream earnings, but it is a forecast and not a certainty, and this article is educational and not a recommendation.
When crude rises, investors often group ONGC and Oil India together. This article compares ONGC vs Oil India on what Kotak’s new forecast says, how each company’s Q1 FY27 numbers differ, how the two are valued, what brokerages have said, and which risks sit outside crude prices, using prices at 2:13 PM IST.
Three flags. Oil India’s consolidated profit appears as Rs 4,026.83 crore in one report and Rs 3,629.79 crore in another. Brokerage targets for ONGC vs Oil India date from 10 September and 21 October, before Q2 results, which neither company has announced yet. Kotak’s note as I read it gives no ONGC or Oil India targets, so none are attributed to it. It is educational and not advice.
Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions
What Kotak’s $100 Crude Forecast Means for ONGC vs Oil India
| ONGC vs Oil India: Kotak crude item | Detail |
|---|---|
| FY27 forecast | $100 a barrel, raised from $90 |
| FY28 and long term | Unchanged at $75 a barrel |
| Brent average so far in FY27 | Nearly $104 a barrel |
| Dated Brent average in October so far | About $126 a barrel |
| Condition for easing in H2 FY27 | Hostilities do not intensify and supply flows keep normalising |
| Background | A West Asia conflict now eight months old, with attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz |
The ONGC vs Oil India question starts here because upstream producers sell crude at market-linked prices. A higher forecast raises expected realisation, while the unchanged $75 for FY28 signals that Kotak expects the spike to fade. An earlier JM Financial estimate from March, when crude was near $99, put the earnings lift at roughly 1.5% to 2% for each $1 a barrel, which gives a feel for the sensitivity but dates from a different price level.
Compare ONGC vs Oil India and other energy stocks on Univest
ONGC vs Oil India Today: Price Snapshot
| ONGC vs Oil India: item (NSE, 2:13 PM IST) | ONGC | Oil India |
|---|---|---|
| Last price | Rs 225.08 | Rs 451.80 |
| Change on the day | Up 0.08% | Up 0.96% |
| 52-week range | Rs 218.53 to Rs 307.50 | Rs 395.60 to Rs 531 |
| Below the 52-week high (my calculation) | About 27% | About 15% |
| Above the 52-week low (my calculation) | About 3% | About 14% |
Neither stock moved much today, so the market is not treating the Kotak note as a catalyst. ONGC trades only about 3% above its 52-week low even though crude is above $100, which suggests investors are focused on something other than the crude price, and the next sections show what.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track ONGC, Oil India and crude-linked stocks.
ONGC vs Oil India in Q1 FY27: Higher Crude, Different Results
| ONGC vs Oil India: Q1 FY27 item | ONGC | Oil India |
|---|---|---|
| Standalone net profit | Rs 17,034 crore, up 112% | Rs 2,870 crore, up about 253% |
| Consolidated net profit | Rs 6,554 crore, down 43.3% | Rs 4,026.83 crore or Rs 3,629.79 crore (reports differ) |
| Crude realisation | $99.45 a barrel, against $66.13 | $98.73 a barrel |
| Crude production | 4.45 million tonnes, down from 4.68 | 0.950 million tonnes, up from 0.853 |
| Standalone revenue from operations | Rs 46,460 crore, up 45.2% | Rs 7,958 crore, up 58.8% |
| Subsidiary effect | HPCL loss of Rs 12,265 crore | Numaligarh Refinery profit of Rs 1,305 crore |
Both companies earned about $99 a barrel, so realisation does not separate them. What separates them is volume and subsidiaries. ONGC’s crude output slipped while Oil India’s rose about 11% to a record daily high of 10,921 tonnes on 27 June 2026, and Oil India’s refinery subsidiary added profit while ONGC’s fuel retailer subsidiary lost money.
The Subsidiary Gap in ONGC vs Oil India
ONGC’s standalone profit of Rs 17,034 crore fell to Rs 6,554 crore on a consolidated basis because HPCL, in which ONGC holds a controlling stake, reported a loss of Rs 12,265 crore. The report links that loss to under-recoveries on petroleum products during the West Asia crisis, meaning HPCL sold fuel for less than its cost. The same crude spike that lifts upstream revenue hurts a downstream retailer.
Oil India has a different pattern. Its subsidiary Numaligarh Refinery earned Rs 1,305 crore at a gross refining margin of $35.95 a barrel, against $5.02 a year earlier. In ONGC vs Oil India, therefore, the choice is partly between a company where a subsidiary absorbed the crude spike and one where a subsidiary benefited from it, and these roles can reverse if refining margins or government pricing policy change.
Valuation in ONGC vs Oil India
| ONGC vs Oil India: valuation item | ONGC | Oil India |
|---|---|---|
| Price to earnings (trailing) | 6.30 | Not available to me; ICICI Securities puts it near 6x FY29E EPS |
| Price-to-book | 0.76 | Not available to me |
| Dividend yield | 3.23% | About 4% (ICICI Securities estimate) |
| Return on equity | 11.14% | Not available to me |
| Debt to equity | 0.47 | Not available to me |
The data provider I used returned full ratios for ONGC only, so I do not show matching figures for Oil India. At 6.30 times trailing earnings and 0.76 times book value, ONGC looks low on conventional measures, but these are consolidated figures that include the HPCL loss from Q1. A low ratio can mean the market doubts the earnings, so it is not by itself a sign of value.
Brokerage Views in ONGC vs Oil India
| ONGC vs Oil India: brokerage | Stock | Rating and target | Gap to today’s price (my calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motilal Oswal (10 Sep) | ONGC | Buy, SoTP target Rs 290 | About +28.8% |
| JM Financial (21 Oct) | ONGC | Buy, target Rs 300 | About +33.3% |
| ICICI Securities (10 Sep) | Oil India | Buy, target Rs 600 | About +32.8% |
Motilal’s logic is that ONGC’s price implies Brent near $65 a barrel for Q2 FY27 to FY28, which it calls conservative. ICICI Securities expects a 25% EPS CAGR for Oil India over FY26 to FY29 on upstream and downstream expansion, and a dividend yield near 4%. Both views were published when Brent had just crossed $100, and neither has been tested by Q2 results.
In ONGC vs Oil India, the stale dates matter. Oil India traded near Rs 514 when ICICI Securities set Rs 600, so the upside then was about 17%, against about 33% from today’s Rs 451.80. The wider gap reflects a lower share price, not a better outlook.
What to Watch in ONGC vs Oil India
- Q2 FY27 results. For ONGC vs Oil India, check whether ONGC’s crude production recovers from 4.45 million tonnes and whether Oil India keeps growing output.
- HPCL. ONGC’s consolidated profit depends on whether HPCL’s under-recoveries narrow, since its Q1 loss was Rs 12,265 crore.
- Brent path. Kotak expects prices to ease in H2 FY27 if supply normalises, so a faster fall would reduce upstream realisation.
- Capital spending. In ONGC vs Oil India, ONGC is spending over Rs 40,000 crore in western offshore, with benefits expected from FY28, so execution matters.
Risks in ONGC vs Oil India
- Crude reversal. In ONGC vs Oil India, both stocks lose if the conflict eases quickly and Brent falls toward Kotak’s $75 for FY28.
- Subsidiary risk. In ONGC vs Oil India, ONGC’s HPCL stake can turn a standalone record into a weak consolidated quarter.
- Production risk. ONGC cited reservoir issues in the KG-98/2 block, weather and delayed pipeline work behind its lower crude output.
- Policy risk. Government pricing or tax decisions on fuel and crude can change how much of a crude spike companies keep.
- Stale targets and data gaps. Targets pre-date Q2 results and valuation data for Oil India was incomplete, so check current figures.
Conclusion: Read ONGC vs Oil India Beyond the Crude Forecast
Kotak’s $100 forecast supports upstream realisation, but ONGC vs Oil India shows that the same crude price produced very different results once volumes and subsidiaries are included. Compare the next quarterly numbers, watch HPCL and production, and decide in line with your own risk profile.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Kotak say about crude oil in the ONGC vs Oil India context?
Ans. Kotak Institutional Equities raised its FY27 crude forecast to $100 a barrel from $90 on 29 Oct 2026 and kept $75 for FY28. It expects prices to ease in H2 FY27 if hostilities do not intensify and supply keeps normalising.
Why was ONGC’s consolidated profit so much lower than its standalone profit?
Ans. Standalone profit was Rs 17,034 crore, but consolidated profit was Rs 6,554 crore because subsidiary HPCL lost Rs 12,265 crore on under-recoveries. Better results at ONGC Videsh and Mangalore Refinery only partly offset it.
How did Oil India perform in Q1 FY27 in ONGC vs Oil India?
Ans. Standalone profit was Rs 2,870 crore, up about 253%, on revenue of Rs 7,958 crore and crude realisation of $98.73. Production rose to 0.950 million tonnes, and Numaligarh Refinery earned Rs 1,305 crore.
Which has the better valuation in ONGC vs Oil India?
Ans. I could only verify ONGC’s ratios: price to earnings of 6.30, price-to-book of 0.76 and a 3.23% dividend yield. ICICI Securities puts Oil India near 6x FY29E EPS with a yield near 4%, so the two look similar, but the data is incomplete.
What are the brokerage targets for ONGC and Oil India?
Ans. Motilal Oswal has a Buy on ONGC with an SoTP target of Rs 290 (10 Sep), JM Financial a Buy with Rs 300 (21 Oct), and ICICI Securities a Buy on Oil India with Rs 600 (10 Sep). All pre-date Q2 results.
Do ONGC and Oil India both gain when crude rises?
Ans. Both earn more per barrel, and both realised about $99 in Q1 FY27. But ONGC’s fuel retailer subsidiary HPCL lost money in the same period, so the net effect on ONGC’s consolidated profit was negative in Q1.
Is ONGC vs Oil India a buy recommendation?
Ans. No. It compares reported figures and brokerage opinions. Crude prices can reverse quickly, so check the latest results and your own risk profile, and consider a SEBI-registered adviser.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
