National Fertilizers Share Price Target 2027: Base and Bull Targets Built on FY26 Earnings
- October 9, 2026
- Posted by: Neeraj Pandey
- Category: Market
National Fertilizers share price Rs 61.74 (9 October 2026). Base target Rs 72.9, bull Rs 88.0, downside risk Rs 49.1. PE 8.26. 52W range Rs 61.15 to Rs 98.30.
Quick Answer
The National Fertilizers share price target for 2027 is Rs 72.9, about 18.1% above the current price of Rs 61.74. The bull case is Rs 88.0, and the downside risk level, which is not a target, is Rs 49.1. The base case assumes earnings per share grow 18.7% a year, the pace seen from FY24 to FY26, with the stock holding its PE of 8.26. These are model-based estimates built from reported financials, not guaranteed outcomes.
Investors weighing a National Fertilizers target price for 2027 should start with where the stock sits today. At Rs 61.74 on 9 October 2026, it is 37.2% below its 52-week high of Rs 98.30 and 1.0% above its 52-week low of Rs 61.15. That range spans 61% from low to high, so the entry point matters as much as the National Fertilizers price forecast itself.
This article builds the National Fertilizers share price target from reported numbers only: four years of annual results, the last five quarters, the latest shareholding pattern and current valuation ratios from company filings and exchange data. Each scenario shows its assumptions, so you can see exactly how the Rs 72.9 base case and the Rs 88.0 bull case were reached, along with a downside risk level of Rs 49.1.
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National Fertilizers Stock Analysis: Company Overview and Key Stats
National Fertilizers (NSE: NFL) has a market capitalisation of Rs 3,011 crore. In FY26 it reported revenue of Rs 21,568 crore and net profit of Rs 211.49 crore. The table collects the figures the National Fertilizers share price target is built on.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | National Fertilizers |
| NSE Ticker | NFL |
| CMP (9 October 2026) | Rs 61.74 |
| 52-Week High | Rs 98.30 |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 61.15 |
| Market Cap | Rs 3,011 crore |
| PE Ratio (TTM) | 8.26 |
| Industry PE | 21.67 |
| Price to Book | 1.06 |
| Return on Equity | 7.44% |
| Debt to Equity | 1.40 |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 7.43 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.69% |
| 12-Month Base Target | Rs 72.9 |
| Bull Case | Rs 88.0 |
| Downside Risk Level (not a target) | Rs 49.1 |
Why Is National Fertilizers Share Price Target Set at Rs 72.9 for 2027?
The base-case National Fertilizers stock target of Rs 72.9 applies a PE multiple of 8.26 to a forward EPS estimate of Rs 8.82. That EPS assumes 18.7% yearly growth, the pace from FY24 to FY26, and puts the target 18.1% above the current price. The bull case adds faster earnings growth and a higher multiple, while the downside risk level assumes flat earnings and a lower multiple.
Earnings Growth Behind the National Fertilizers Target Price: Four Years of Results
National Fertilizers grew revenue from Rs 29,777 crore in FY23 to Rs 21,568 crore in FY26, a compound annual growth rate of -10.2%. Net profit grew more slowly, from Rs 458.33 crore to Rs 211.49 crore (-22.7% a year), which points to margin pressure alongside the sales growth.
| Financial Year | Revenue (Rs Cr) | Net Profit (Rs Cr) | EPS (Rs) | Dividend per Share (Rs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 29,777.04 | 458.33 | 9.34 | 2.79 |
| FY24 | 23,670.62 | 150.05 | 3.06 | 0.27 |
| FY25 | 19,889.52 | 183.98 | 3.75 | 1.56 |
| FY26 | 21,567.86 | 211.49 | 4.31 | 1.04 |
FY26 revenue growth was 8.4%, faster than the three-year average of -10.2%, and net profit moved up 15.0%. EPS rose from Rs 3.06 in FY24 to Rs 4.31 in FY26. The FY27 outlook depends on whether that EPS estimate keeps compounding.
Margins and the Latest Quarter
National Fertilizers converted 1.0% of FY26 revenue into net profit, against 0.9% in FY25, within a four-year range of 0.6% to 1.5%. EBITDA margin was 4.3% in FY26 versus 4.1% in FY25.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Debt to equity stands at 1.40, and shareholders’ equity grew from Rs 2,542 crore in FY23 to Rs 2,841 crore in FY26. Operating cash flow in FY26 was negative at Rs 1,342 crore against capital expenditure of Rs 227.86 crore, leaving negative free cash flow of Rs 1,570 crore. In FY25 free cash flow was Rs 2,389 crore, so cash generation has not been steady year to year.
Valuation Check for the National Fertilizers Stock Target: PE, Price to Book and ROE
At a PE of 8.26 against an industry PE of 21.67, National Fertilizers trades at a discount to its industry. Price to book is 1.06 on a book value of Rs 57.91 per share, and return on equity is 7.44%. A PE of 8.26 equals an earnings yield of 12.1%, and the FY26 dividend of Rs 1.04 per share gives a yield of 1.69%.
Shareholding Pattern and Institutional Holding
Promoters held 74.71% of National Fertilizers in June 2026, and promoter holding has stayed near 74.71% since June 2025. Foreign institutional investors (FII) held 0.55% and domestic institutions (DII) held 4.92%, which puts total institutional holding at 5.47%. FII holding has stayed near 0.55% since June 2025. Public shareholders own the remaining 19.82%.
National Fertilizers Share Price Targets for the Short Term and 12 Months
Short Term National Fertilizers Stock Target Levels: Technical Setup
At Rs 61.74 on 9 October 2026, National Fertilizers trades below its 50-day simple moving average of Rs 69.00 and below its 200-day exponential moving average of Rs 75.58. The 14-day RSI reads 29.7, which is oversold territory, and the MACD line sits below its signal line. The nearest resistance level is Rs 69.00 (50-day simple moving average) and the nearest support is Rs 61.15 (52-week low). A sustained move above Rs 69.00 would improve the short-term setup, while a close below Rs 61.15 would shift attention to the next support.
12 Month National Fertilizers Target Price for 2027
The 12-month target for National Fertilizers is Rs 72.9: forward EPS of Rs 8.82 at a PE of 8.26. That is 18.1% above Rs 61.74. It would still leave the stock 25.8% below its 52-week high of Rs 98.30.
How EPS Growth and PE Multiple Change the National Fertilizers Target Price
| EPS Growth | PE 6.61 | PE 8.26 | PE 9.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (EPS Rs 7.43) | Rs 49.1 | Rs 61.4 | Rs 70.6 |
| 18.7% (EPS Rs 8.82) | Rs 58.3 | Rs 72.9 | Rs 83.8 |
| 24.7% (EPS Rs 9.26) | Rs 61.2 | Rs 76.5 | Rs 88.0 |
Each cell multiplies the forward EPS estimate by the PE shown. Reading across a row shows what a de-rating or re-rating does to the National Fertilizers price forecast, and reading down a column shows what earnings growth is worth at a fixed multiple.
Bull Case and Downside Risk for National Fertilizers Stock Target in 2027
Bull Case Rs 88.0
The bull case National Fertilizers price target needs EPS growth of 24.7%, which lifts forward EPS to Rs 9.26, and a PE multiple that rises 15% to 9.50. That gives Rs 88.0, 42.5% above the current price and below the 52-week high of Rs 98.30.
Downside Risk Level Rs 49.1
The downside risk level is not a target. It assumes EPS stays flat at Rs 7.43 and the PE falls 20% to 6.61. That gives Rs 49.1, 20.5% below the current price and below the 52-week low of Rs 61.15.
| Scenario | EPS Growth | PE Multiple | Price (Rs) | Change vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | 24.7% | 9.50 | Rs 88.0 | +42.5% |
| Base Case | 18.7% | 8.26 | Rs 72.9 | +18.1% |
| Downside Risk | 0.0% | 6.61 | Rs 49.1 | -20.5% |
Key Risks to the National Fertilizers Target Price for 2027
Growth Slowdown Risk for the National Fertilizers Price Target
FY26 revenue growth was 8.4% and net profit moved up 15.0%. If growth slows from here, the base case EPS estimate will need revising.
Liquidity and Size Risk
National Fertilizers has a market capitalisation of Rs 3,011 crore. Institutional holding is 5.47%, and promoters hold 74.71%. Stocks of this size can move sharply on small volumes, and exits can take longer than entries.
Valuation and Margin Risk
Net margin was 1.0% in FY26, so a small slip in costs moves profit noticeably. At a PE of 8.26 versus an industry PE of 21.67, a de-rating toward the downside-risk PE of 6.61 would cut the price even if earnings hold.
Market and Technical Risk
The stock trades 37.2% below its 52-week high, with an RSI of 29.7 and a MACD reading below its signal line. Broader market weakness can override company fundamentals in the short term.
How to Invest in National Fertilizers
Start with the live price and volume. Any National Fertilizers share price target is only as current as the data behind it, and the data here is as of 9 October 2026, so refresh the Rs 61.74 price before acting on any level.
Next, review the fundamentals yourself. The Univest Screener lets you check National Fertilizers’ PE, ROE, debt and shareholding in one place.
Check National Fertilizers fundamentals on the Univest Screener
Then compare the three National Fertilizers target price scenarios with your own view. If you expect EPS growth below 18.7%, the base case is too optimistic for you; if you expect more, the bull case deserves weight.
Decide your position size and exit levels before you buy. The support and resistance levels above can serve as reference points, but they are not recommendations.
Finally, place the order through a SEBI-registered broker or the Univest app, and review the position after each quarterly result. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor if you are unsure.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track National Fertilizers live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Conclusion
The National Fertilizers share price target for 2027 is Rs 72.9 in the base case, with Rs 88.0 as the bull case. The support for that view is arithmetic you can check: EPS grew 18.7% a year over FY24 to FY26, and the stock trades at a PE of 8.26. The risks are equally concrete, including a stock that sits 37.2% below its 52-week high and a downside scenario that cuts the price 20% if earnings stall. Use these numbers as a framework, check them against the latest filings, and size any position to your own risk appetite.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on National Fertilizers Share Price Target 2027
What is the National Fertilizers share price target for 2027?
Ans. The base-case National Fertilizers share price target for 2027 is Rs 72.9, with Rs 88.0 as the bull case. The downside risk level, which is not a target, is Rs 49.1. These are model estimates from reported earnings and the current PE, not guaranteed outcomes.
What is the National Fertilizers share price today?
Ans. As of 9 October 2026, 3:30 PM IST, National Fertilizers trades at Rs 61.74, up 0.65% on the day. The 52-week range is Rs 61.15 to Rs 98.30.
Is National Fertilizers a buy or sell at the current price?
Ans. The data is mixed rather than one-sided: EPS has grown 18.7% a year over FY24 to FY26, but the stock is 37.2% below its 52-week high. Whether National Fertilizers fits your portfolio depends on your time horizon and risk appetite, so consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. This article is not investment advice.
What are the bull case target and downside risk level for National Fertilizers shares?
Ans. The bull case target is Rs 88.0, which assumes 24.7% EPS growth and a PE of 9.50. The downside risk level is Rs 49.1, which assumes flat EPS and a PE of 6.61. It marks a risk, not a target.
What are the main risks to the National Fertilizers price target?
Ans. The main risks are slower revenue growth, a small market capitalisation of Rs 3,011 crore, a PE de-rating and short-term weakness in the broader market. Each is covered in the risk section above.
What is the PE ratio of National Fertilizers and how does it compare with the industry?
Ans. The PE ratio of National Fertilizers is 8.26 against an industry PE of 21.67. Price to book is 1.06 and return on equity is 7.44%. The base case in the National Fertilizers price target holds this PE constant.
Who owns National Fertilizers, and what is the promoter holding?
Ans. Promoters held 74.71% of National Fertilizers in June 2026. FII held 0.55%, DII held 4.92% and the public held 19.82%.
