BEL Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Analyst Targets, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27

BEL CMP Rs 390.25 (30 Sep 2026). 52-week range Rs 380.45 to Rs 473.45. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 1,048 cr, up 8%. Order book Rs 72,258 cr.

Bharat Electronics (BEL) trades around Rs 390 on 30 September 2026, 17.6 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 473.45 and 2.6 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 380.45. The Navratna defence PSU is a constituent of the Nifty 50 and carries no debt. FY26 revenue rose 15 percent to Rs 28,176 crore and net profit rose 13.9 percent to Rs 6,023 crore.

Three things changed since the last update in May: the stock fell from Rs 422 to about Rs 390, Q1 FY27 results showed a margin miss, and the Rs 30,000 crore QRSAM order is still waiting for approval. Below you will find every BEL share price target scenario, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and the shareholding trend.

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What Is the BEL Share Price Target for 2026?

The 2026 target for BEL shares is Rs 430 to Rs 462 in the Univest base case, which is +10.2% to +18.4% against the current price. The bull case is Rs 529 to Rs 564 and the bear case is Rs 346 to Rs 365. Market data before the Q1 FY27 results showed 28 Buy ratings with an average target near Rs 490.

BEL Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case

Scenario	FY28E EPS	Target P/E	Price Target (Rs)	Move vs Rs 390.25
Bull Case	Rs 11.50	46x to 49x	529 to 564	+35.6% to +44.5%
Base Case	Rs 10.50	41x to 44x	430 to 462	+10.2% to +18.4%
Bear Case	Rs 9.60	36x to 38x	346 to 365	-11.3% to -6.5%

FY28 EPS of Rs 10.50 in the base case assumes earnings grow about 12.5 percent a year from Rs 8.29 in FY26, which is slower than the 2022 to 2026 pace but allows for the Q1 margin dip. The bull case needs margin to return to 30 percent and QRSAM to be placed, while the bear case assumes both slip. This is what sets the BEL share price target below the earlier May range.

BEL Share Price Today: Snapshot as of 30 September 2026

BEL share price today is Rs 390.25 on the NSE, up 0.64 percent from the previous close of Rs 387.75, with a market capitalisation of Rs 2,82,888 crore. The stock trades at 46.0 times earnings against an industry average of 47.9 times.

Parameter	Value	Context
Current Market Price (CMP)	Rs 390.25	NSE, 30 Sep 2026, 1:01 PM IST
Previous Close	Rs 387.75	29 Sep 2026
52-Week High	Rs 473.45	CMP is 17.6% below
52-Week Low	Rs 380.45	CMP is 2.6% above
Return Since Mid-May 2026	About -8%	Weekly close Rs 423.65 to Rs 390.30
Market Capitalisation	Rs 2,82,888 crore	Navratna defence PSU
Trailing P/E	About 46x	Industry P/E about 47.9x
P/B Ratio	About 11.8x	Book value Rs 32.82 per share
EPS (TTM)	Rs 8.41	FY26 EPS Rs 8.29
Return on Equity	About 25.3%	Debt to equity 0.00
Dividend Yield	About 0.65%	FY26 dividend Rs 2.50 per share
Order Book	Rs 72,258 crore	As on 1 July 2026

Track live price, order book and results on the Univest Screener.

How Did Bharat Electronics Perform in Q1 FY27?

Bharat Electronics reported Q1 FY27 revenue of Rs 5,533 crore, up 25.3 percent, and profit after tax of Rs 1,048 crore, up 8.2 percent from Rs 969 crore. Revenue beat street estimates of about Rs 5,100 crore, but EBITDA margin fell to about 25 to 26 percent, depending on the definition used. The stock fell about 4 percent after the results.

Metric	Q1 FY27	Context
Revenue from Operations	Rs 5,533 crore	Up 25.3% year on year
Profit After Tax	Rs 1,048 crore	Up 8.2% year on year
EBITDA Margin	About 25% to 26%	FY27 guidance is 28%; FY26 was about 31%
Order Book	Rs 72,258 crore	As on 1 July 2026
FY27 Order Inflow Target	Over Rs 55,000 crore	Includes the QRSAM programme

Management called the lean Q1 order inflow structural, because last year included spillover orders from March, and about 16 percent of the FY27 target was met excluding QRSAM. These numbers sit behind every BEL share price target in the scenario table above.

Why Is BEL Share Price Falling?

BEL share price is falling because margin fell short of guidance while the QRSAM order approval kept slipping. The stock has lost about 8 percent since mid-May, and the weekly chart shows three separate lows at Rs 382 in the weeks of 27 July, 14 September and 28 September.

Foreign holding also slipped from 19.50 percent in March to 18.02 percent in June. Revenue growth of 25 percent was not enough for the market, which had priced the stock at 46 times trailing earnings and wanted profit to keep pace.

Key Catalysts for the BEL Share Price Target in 2026

Four catalysts matter most, and QRSAM comes first. Together they decide whether the BEL share price target in the base case is reached.

1. QRSAM Approval and Order Placement

The Rs 30,000 crore QRSAM contract awaits Cabinet Committee on Security approval, which management expected by September 2026. Placement would lift the order book well above the Rs 72,258 crore level and clear the biggest doubt on FY27 order inflow.

2. Order Inflow Recovery

Management targets more than Rs 55,000 crore of order inflow in FY27, and only about 16 percent had come in by the Q1 results excluding QRSAM. Steady wins in Q2 and Q3 would show the target is realistic.

3. Margin Recovery Toward 28 Percent

FY26 EBITDA margin was 31.2 percent, and FY27 guidance is 28 percent. A return from the 25 to 26 percent seen in Q1 to the guided level would lift profit growth toward the 25 percent revenue growth.

4. Balance Sheet and Valuation Support

BEL has no debt, a return on equity of 25.3 percent and a P/E of 46 times that matches the industry average of 47.9 times. That gives the BEL stock target range some support even after the fall from Rs 473.

What Are the Key Risks to the BEL Share Price Target?

The main risks are further QRSAM delay, margin below guidance, weak cash conversion, a government stake sale and a valuation reset. Each can push the BEL share price target lower.

QRSAM Timing Risk

Defence approvals are lumpy, and the CCS decision has already moved past its earlier window. A slip into FY28 would delay the order book jump and could compress the multiple toward 36 to 38 times.

Margin Below Guidance

EBITDA margin of 25 to 26 percent is 2 to 3 percentage points under the 28 percent guide. If margin stays there, FY28 EPS of Rs 9.60 in the bear case becomes more likely than Rs 10.50.

Weak Cash Conversion

Operating cash flow was Rs 1,541 crore in FY26 against Rs 6,023 crore of net profit, and Rs 564 crore in FY25 against Rs 5,287 crore. Slow receivables from defence customers keep cash below profit.

Government Stake and Concentration

The President of India holds 51.14 percent, just above the 51 percent floor, so any offer for sale would add supply. Most revenue comes from the Ministry of Defence, which sets pricing on many contracts.

BEL Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

BEL stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 382 to Rs 417 since late July, with the stock sitting near the bottom.

The first support level is Rs 382, the low of the weeks of 27 July, 14 September and 28 September, just above the 52-week low of Rs 380.45. A weekly close under Rs 380 would open a fresh leg lower and put the bear case of Rs 346 to Rs 365 in view.

The first resistance level is Rs 400 to Rs 405, where the weeks of 14 and 21 September topped out. Above that, Rs 414 to Rs 417 marks the August and early September highs, and Rs 430 to Rs 439 marks the May and June highs. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term BEL share price target.

Institutional Holding: How FII and DII Shareholding in BEL Has Changed

Domestic institutions now hold 21.02 percent of BEL, up from 19.99 percent in March 2026, while foreign institutions hold 18.02 percent, down from 19.50 percent.

Period	Promoters	FII Holding	DII Holding	Public Holding
Jun 2025	51.14%	18.56%	20.60%	9.70%
Sep 2025	51.14%	18.15%	20.88%	9.84%
Dec 2025	51.14%	18.51%	20.48%	9.87%
Mar 2026	51.14%	19.50%	19.99%	9.37%
Jun 2026	51.14%	18.02%	21.02%	9.82%

Index and passive funds are among the largest DII holders, including the SBI Nifty 50 ETF at 2.13 percent and the CPSE ETF at 2.04 percent. A stable domestic base is one reason the BEL share price target range holds even when foreign flows soften.

BEL Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term

Short-Term BEL Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)

In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 382 and Rs 417, from the triple weekly low to the August highs. A close above Rs 405 would put Rs 417 in play, while a break under Rs 380 would invalidate the range. The QRSAM decision and Q2 FY27 results are the near-term triggers.

12-Month and 2027 BEL Share Price Target

The 12-month target price is Rs 430 to Rs 462, valued at 41 to 44 times FY28 EPS of Rs 10.50. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 346 in the bear case to Rs 564 in the bull case. Market data before the Q1 results put the average brokerage target near Rs 490.

Long-Term BEL Share Price Target for FY29 and 2030

For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 475 to Rs 572. This assumes EPS of Rs 12.50 in FY29 and Rs 14.30 in FY30, with the stock at 38 to 40 times earnings. QRSAM, other large orders and margin near 28 to 30 percent all need to come through for this range to hold.

The bear case of Rs 346 to Rs 365 sits just below the 52-week low of Rs 380.45. The bull case needs QRSAM placement and margin back at 30 percent within the same year.

Is BEL a Good Buy at Rs 390? BEL Buy or Sell View

Whether BEL is a buy at Rs 390 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case implies +10.2% to +18.4%, the stock trades at 46 times earnings, and the open questions are QRSAM approval and margin recovery.

Long-term holders may focus on the Rs 72,258 crore order book, zero debt and 25 percent return on equity, and treat Rs 380 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for the QRSAM decision or a weekly close above Rs 405. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this BEL buy or sell view is educational.

How to Invest in BEL Shares

Step 1: Check the live price, the 46 times P/E and the latest BEL share price target range on the Univest Screener.

Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest.

Step 3: Search for BEL on the NSE or 500049 on the BSE in your trading app.

Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 346 is bearable.

Step 5: Track QRSAM approval, order inflow and Q2 FY27 results, and set price alerts on the Univest App.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track BEL live price and get daily stock recommendations.

Conclusion

BEL trades around Rs 390 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 430 to Rs 462, a bull case of Rs 529 to Rs 564 and a bear case of Rs 346 to Rs 365. Q1 FY27 delivered 25 percent revenue growth and an order book of Rs 72,258 crore, but profit grew only 8 percent as EBITDA margin fell to about 25 to 26 percent. The main risks are QRSAM timing, margin and cash conversion.

The stock is 17.6 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case implies roughly 10 to 18 percent upside. The triggers to watch are the QRSAM decision, Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 382 and Rs 405 levels. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.

FAQs on BEL Share Price Target 2026

What is the BEL share price target for 2026?

Ans. The BEL share price target for 2026 is Rs 430 to Rs 462 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 529 to Rs 564 and a bear case of Rs 346 to Rs 365. Market data before the Q1 FY27 results showed an average brokerage target near Rs 490. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.

What is the BEL share price target for 2027?

Ans. The BEL target price for 2027 is Rs 430 to Rs 462 in the base case, valued at 41 to 44 times FY28 EPS of Rs 10.50. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 346 in the bear case to Rs 564 in the bull case.

What is the BEL share price target for 2030?

Ans. The BEL share price target for 2030 is Rs 475 to Rs 572 in the Univest scenario range. It assumes EPS grows from Rs 8.29 in FY26 to about Rs 14.30 in FY30 and the stock trades at 38 to 40 times earnings, which needs QRSAM and other large orders to convert into revenue.

Is BEL a good buy at Rs 390?

Ans. Whether BEL is a good buy at Rs 390 depends on your horizon and risk appetite. The stock trades at about 46 times earnings, in line with an industry average near 48 times, and sits 2.6 percent above its 52-week low. QRSAM approval and margin recovery are the open questions, so consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

Why is BEL share price falling?

Ans. BEL shares are down about 8 percent since mid-May and fell about 4 percent after the Q1 FY27 results because EBITDA margin dropped to roughly 25 to 26 percent against 28 percent guidance, even though revenue grew 25 percent. The QRSAM approval has also taken longer than the market hoped.

What is the order book of BEL?

Ans. BEL’s order book was Rs 72,258 crore on 1 July 2026, about 2.5 times trailing twelve-month revenue. Management targets order inflow of more than Rs 55,000 crore in FY27, which includes the QRSAM programme.

What are BEL’s 52-week high and low?

Ans. BEL’s 52-week high is Rs 473.45 and its 52-week low is Rs 380.45. At about Rs 390 the stock is 17.6 percent below the high and 2.6 percent above the low.

How can I track BEL share price target updates?

Ans. You can track live BEL price alerts, order wins, brokerage target changes and quarterly results on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.