Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: Why Nomura Prefers One Renewable Stock Over the Other
- October 21, 2026
- Posted by: Harsh Piplani
- Category: News
In the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green comparison, Nomura initiated coverage on 21 Oct 2026 with a Buy and a Rs 505 target on Acme Solar and a Neutral and a Rs 100 target on NTPC Green. At the 21 Oct close of Rs 403.50 and Rs 84.04, those targets imply about 25.2% and 19.0% upside (my calculation), and both stocks fell on the day, by 3.41% and 4.15%. Centrum rates NTPC Green a Buy at Rs 124, so brokers do not agree on it.
Quick Answer
In the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green comparison, Nomura prefers Acme Solar, rating it Buy with a target of Rs 505, against a Neutral rating and a Rs 100 target on NTPC Green, in coverage initiated on 21 Oct 2026. Nomura expects revenue to compound at 66% a year for Acme Solar and 74% for NTPC Green over FY26 to FY29, and values Acme Solar at 10.2 times forward EV/EBITDA against 13.3 times for NTPC Green. The preference rests on Acme Solar’s shift to firm and dispatchable power with storage, while NTPC Green faces transmission delays that Nomura has built into lower capacity additions than company guidance. Both stocks fell on 21 Oct, to Rs 403.50 and Rs 84.04, so the targets imply about 25.2% and 19.0% upside from the close (my calculation).
The Acme Solar vs NTPC Green question reached the market on 21 Oct 2026, when Nomura started coverage of the two listed renewable developers on the same day with different ratings. Acme Solar is a mid-sized developer moving into storage-backed power, and NTPC Green is the renewable arm of NTPC with a far larger market value.
This Acme Solar vs NTPC Green guide covers the Nomura calls, price and valuation today, the reasoning behind each rating, the gap with Centrum’s earlier calls, and the risks. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any share.
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Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: Nomura’s Calls at a Glance
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: item | Acme Solar | NTPC Green |
|---|---|---|
| Nomura rating in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green | Buy | Neutral |
| Nomura target price | Rs 505 | Rs 100 |
| Upside to target at the 21 Oct close | About 25.2% (my calculation) | About 19.0% (my calculation) |
| Revenue CAGR, FY26 to FY29 | 66% | 74% |
| EBITDA CAGR, FY26 to FY29 | 65% | 72% |
| Valuation basis in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green | 10.2 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA on Dec 2028 EBITDA | 13.3 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA on Dec 2028 EBITDA |
| Capacity and pipeline | 8.4 GW portfolio, 5.4 GW under execution, PPAs signed for 4.3 GW | 16 GW awarded, plus MoUs with other PSUs and state entities |
| Storage plan in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green | Aims for 25 GWh of BESS | About 34 GWh of BESS and contracting of pumped storage |
Nomura does not say outright which stock it prefers, but a Buy against a Neutral makes the preference clear in the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green pair. The headline on the source report says upside of up to 21%, which matches the Acme Solar target against its previous close of Rs 417.75 (my calculation), and the upside looks larger now because the price fell.
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Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: Price and Valuation Today
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: measure | Acme Solar share price | NTPC Green share price |
|---|---|---|
| Close on 21 Oct 2026 (NSE) | Rs 403.50, down 3.41% | Rs 84.04, down 4.15% |
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: day range | Rs 395.35 to Rs 423.70 | Rs 83.26 to Rs 88.22 |
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: 2026 high | Rs 476.90, so about 15.4% below it (my calculation) | Rs 119.95, so about 29.9% below it (my calculation) |
| Acme Solar share price and NTPC Green share price move in 2026 so far | Up about 70% (my calculation) | Down about 11.7% (my calculation) |
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: 50-day average | Rs 410.80 | Rs 90.59 |
| 14-day RSI | 34.6 | 37.5 |
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: market capitalisation | About Rs 29,526 crore | About Rs 73,966 crore |
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: P/E and industry P/E | 49.03 against 22.67 | 121.92 against 21.75 |
| Price to book and return on equity | 3.76 and 9.86% | 3.90 and 2.76% |
| Debt to equity | 3.93 | 1.67 |
The numbers show why the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green debate is not simple. NTPC Green has the larger market value but a trailing P/E near 122 and a return on equity of 2.76%, so its price rests on growth still to come. Acme Solar has a better return on equity of 9.86% but carries a debt to equity of 3.93, which is the price of building storage and solar quickly. NTPC Green touched Rs 83.26 on 21 Oct, which is at or below its earlier 2026 low of Rs 83.34.
Why Nomura Likes Acme Solar and Stays Neutral on NTPC Green
On Acme Solar, Nomura says the company is moving from a conventional solar producer to a platform for firm and dispatchable renewable energy, which tends to earn higher equity returns. Falling battery prices and early commissioning let storage run in merchant and short-term markets, and signed PPAs for 4.3 GW improve visibility, according to the report summary I read.
On NTPC Green, Nomura points to its position as the renewable arm of NTPC, with India’s largest non-hydro renewable capacity and a lower cost of debt because of sovereign backing, plus storage plans that include pumped storage. The Neutral rating reflects execution risk, since tight transmission availability could delay projects and Nomura has assumed lower capacity additions than the company guides.
Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: Brokers Do Not Agree
| Acme Solar vs NTPC Green: broker | Acme Solar call | NTPC Green call |
|---|---|---|
| Nomura on Acme Solar vs NTPC Green, 21 Oct 2026 | Buy, target Rs 505 (about 25.2% above the close) | Neutral, target Rs 100 (about 19.0% above the close) |
| Centrum on Acme Solar vs NTPC Green, 7 Oct 2026 | Buy, target Rs 458 (about 13.5% above the close) | Buy, target Rs 124 (about 47.5% above the close) |
Centrum’s note, written ahead of the September-quarter results, expects Acme Solar to add 67 MW to reach 3,057 MW of operating capacity and an EBITDA margin of 82.5%, down 309 basis points from the previous quarter because of more lower-margin BESS revenue. For NTPC Green it expects 0.6 GW of additions to reach 11.3 GW by 30 Sep, a margin of 89.4% and 7 GW to 8 GW of additions in FY27. The upside figures in the table use the 21 Oct close and are my calculation, so the two brokers differ most on NTPC Green, where one says Neutral and the other says Buy.
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Risks in the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green Choice
Risk: Grid instability, curtailment and timing mismatches between solar output and demand can hold back both companies, and Nomura lists transmission availability as the specific hurdle for NTPC Green.
Risk: Acme Solar’s storage push is capital intensive and relies partly on merchant markets, so a fall in power prices or a delay in commissioning would hit returns, and its debt to equity of 3.93 leaves less room for error.
Risk: Both stocks are richly valued on trailing earnings, and both fell sharply on 21 Oct, so a broker target is a view and not a promise.
What to Watch Next in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green
- The September-quarter results of both companies, to check capacity added and margins against the Centrum estimates
- Whether NTPC Green holds the Rs 83.26 to Rs 83.34 area, which was its 2026 low
- Whether Acme Solar closes back above its 50-day average of Rs 410.80
- Progress on transmission connectivity and storage commissioning, the two items Nomura flags most
Conclusion
In the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green pair, Nomura prefers Acme Solar for its firm and dispatchable power plan and a lower forward multiple, and stays Neutral on NTPC Green because of transmission and execution risk. Centrum rates both a Buy, which shows how much the answer depends on assumptions. Read the full broker reports, compare your risk limit with the debt and valuation numbers above, and decide for yourself.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Which stock does Nomura prefer in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green?
Ans. Nomura rates Acme Solar a Buy with a target of Rs 505 and NTPC Green a Neutral with a target of Rs 100, so it prefers Acme Solar. The report does not use the word preferred, so this is read from the ratings and the stronger growth and valuation case it makes for Acme Solar.
What are the Nomura target prices in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green?
Ans. The targets are Rs 505 for Acme Solar and Rs 100 for NTPC Green, in coverage initiated on 21 Oct 2026. Against the 21 Oct closes of Rs 403.50 and Rs 84.04 they imply about 25.2% and 19.0% upside, which is my calculation and changes with the price.
How does Nomura value the two companies in Acme Solar vs NTPC Green?
Ans. Nomura uses a one-year forward EV/EBITDA on Dec 2028 EBITDA, at 10.2 times for Acme Solar and 13.3 times for NTPC Green. It also expects revenue to grow at 66% and 74% a year, and EBITDA at 65% and 72% a year, over FY26 to FY29.
Why is Nomura Neutral on NTPC Green?
Ans. The main reason is execution risk from tight transmission availability, which could delay projects. Nomura has assumed lower capacity additions than company guidance. Sovereign backing and a lower cost of debt are strengths, but they were not enough for a Buy at the price.
Do other brokers agree with Nomura in the Acme Solar vs NTPC Green choice?
Ans. Not in the note I read. Centrum rated NTPC Green a Buy with a Rs 124 target on 7 Oct 2026, ahead of the September-quarter results. That target is about 47.5% above the 21 Oct close, so the two brokers clearly differ on the stock.
Why did the Acme Solar share price and NTPC Green share price fall on 21 Oct 2026?
Ans. Acme Solar fell 3.41% to Rs 403.50 and NTPC Green fell 4.15% to Rs 84.04. I found no single reported cause, and the fall came despite the Nomura initiation, so I treat the reason as unconfirmed rather than guess.
Is NTPC Green or Acme Solar lower on valuation?
Ans. On trailing P/E, Acme Solar at 49.03 is lower than NTPC Green at 121.92, and on Nomura’s forward EV/EBITDA it is also lower at 10.2 times against 13.3 times. Acme Solar carries more debt, with a debt to equity of 3.93 against 1.67, so a lower multiple is not the whole story.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
