Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow 22 May 2026: LME at $18,985 as Indonesia Cuts Output and EV Demand Grows

Nickel price prediction for tomorrow 22 May: LME $18,985/tonne (+1.09%). Indonesia cuts 30% mining quotas. US PMI data today is key.

The nickel price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026 is cautiously positive, with LME nickel rising to $18,985 per tonne on 20 May, up 1.09 per cent, in a sustained uptrend that has now delivered a 4.60 per cent monthly gain and a 21.47 per cent year-on-year rise from near five-year lows. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow is shaped by the most important structural supply story in base metals right now: Indonesia, controlling up to 70 per cent of global nickel supply, has cut its 2026 mining quotas by approximately 30 per cent to around 250 million tonnes, triggering a supply tightening cycle that pushed LME nickel to a near two-year high of $19,350 per tonne in April 2026.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the nickel price prediction for tomorrow faces the most complex fundamental picture of any base metal: a genuine supply squeeze from Indonesian quota cuts on one side and a structural global oversupply of approximately 324,000 tonnes on the other. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, adds that Friday’s US PMI manufacturing data is the immediate near-term catalyst for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow, as stainless steel production, which accounts for 70 per cent of nickel demand globally, is directly tied to manufacturing and construction activity.

MCX and LME Nickel Market Data: 20-21 May 2026

Track live MCX nickel prices on the Univest Screener.

Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Key Drivers

• Indonesia Supply Cut: The Dominant Structural Positive: Indonesia cut 2026 nickel ore mining quotas to approximately 250 million tonnes, a 30 per cent reduction from the 379 million wet metric tonnes in 2025. Additionally, 10 to 15 per cent of high-grade nickel pig iron capacity at the Weda Bay Industrial Park is undergoing rotational maintenance. Some NPI production has already been reduced since March and April due to weaker ore availability and elevated costs. This supply discipline is the single largest driver pushing LME nickel toward the $19,000 level in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.
• LME Near Two-Year High at $18,985: LME nickel touched $19,350 per tonne in April 2026, a near two-year high, before consolidating near $18,985 on 20 May. The 21.47 per cent year-on-year gain confirms that the market is structurally repricing the Indonesian supply story. The consolidation near $19,000 in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow reflects traders digesting the speed of the move rather than any deterioration in the underlying supply tightening narrative.
• EV Demand and Sulfur Crisis MHP Impact: The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a Sulfur Crisis that has disrupted production of battery-grade Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), a key input for nickel-containing EV batteries. Global EV demand continues growing at approximately 20 per cent year-on-year, with Europe up 30 per cent and the rest of the world up 48 per cent. This sustained EV demand growth provides structural long-term support for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow despite the rise of LFP batteries.
• Global Oversupply Caps the Upside: The structural nickel market surplus stands at approximately 324,000 tonnes, with combined LME registered and off-warrant stocks near 367,000 tonnes. Shadow inventories in Singapore and Kaohsiung add further overhang. Most analysts expect LME nickel to settle between $15,000 and $20,000 rather than trend sharply higher, making $19,350 a significant ceiling in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.
• US PMI and Dow 50,000 (Manufacturing Confidence): The Dow Jones crossing 50,000 and Nasdaq gaining 1.55 per cent on 21 May signal broad US economic confidence. Friday’s US PMI manufacturing data provides the clearest near-term demand signal for nickel in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow. A PMI above 50 supports stainless steel and superalloy demand, pushing MCX nickel above Rs 1,870 resistance.

Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Technical Levels

Trend: Cautiously Positive; Consolidating Below $19,000 Two-Year High

LME Nickel Support 1: $18,500 per tonne

LME Nickel Support 2: $18,000 per tonne

LME Nickel Resistance 1: $19,350 (April high)

LME Nickel Resistance 2: $20,000 (psychological level)

MCX Nickel Support 1: Rs 1,750 per kg

MCX Nickel Support 2: Rs 1,680 per kg

MCX Nickel Resistance 1: Rs 1,870 per kg

MCX Nickel Resistance 2: Rs 1,950 per kg

Jaiswal’s nickel price prediction for tomorrow identifies the $19,350 April high as the critical LME ceiling. A sustained break above $19,350 would confirm the Indonesian supply discipline narrative is stronger than the surplus overhang, potentially driving LME toward $20,000 in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow medium-term framework. On MCX, the Rs 1,870 resistance corresponds to LME $19,350 at current Rupee levels.

Singla’s nickel price prediction for tomorrow notes that the oversupply narrative at approximately 324,000 tonnes remains the key counter-argument to any extended bull run. If Indonesia raises quotas back toward 300 million tonnes, the rally would likely collapse toward the $17,800 zone and MCX toward Rs 1,680 in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow bear scenario.

Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Supply vs Demand Analysis

Supply Side: Indonesia Controls the Narrative

Indonesia controls up to 70 per cent of global nickel supply through its nickel ore, nickel pig iron (NPI) and Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate production. The 2026 mining quota cut to 250 million tonnes from 379 million wet metric tonnes in 2025 represents the most significant supply intervention in the nickel market since 2022. The Indonesian government has also shifted emphasis from attracting capital to maximising returns on existing processing investments, reinforcing the supply discipline thesis in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.

Demand Side: Stainless Steel Dominates, EVs Add Structure

Stainless steel accounts for approximately 70 per cent of total nickel demand, consuming an estimated 2.45 to 2.5 million tonnes in 2026. China’s stainless steel production recovery offers support, while infrastructure spending in emerging markets adds incremental demand. EV battery nickel demand, despite the rise of LFP chemistry, is growing at approximately 6 to 7 per cent annually and contributes a structural demand floor for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.

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Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Indian Sector Impact

• Stainless Steel and Alloy Makers: Indian stainless steel producers (SAIL, Jindal Stainless) are directly impacted by nickel price movements, as nickel is the primary alloying element in 300-series stainless steel. A rising LME nickel pushes input costs higher, compressing margins or requiring stainless steel price increases downstream.
• EV Battery Manufacturing: India’s emerging EV battery sector, particularly manufacturers using NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) chemistry, faces higher input costs when nickel prices rise. However, the shift toward LFP batteries by major OEMs reduces this exposure in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow context.
• MCX Nickel Traders: MCX nickel futures (lot size 250 kg, Rs 1 move = Rs 250 per lot) offer Indian traders direct exposure to the global nickel supply story. The Indonesian quota cut and LME near two-year highs create a favourable medium-term technical setup in the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.

Conclusion: Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow 22 May 2026

The nickel price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026 is cautiously positive, with LME nickel at $18,985 per tonne, up 1.09 per cent on 20 May, and an annual gain of 21.47 per cent driven by Indonesia’s 30 per cent mining quota cut. MCX nickel reference is approximately Rs 1,808 per kilogram, with support at Rs 1,750 and resistance at Rs 1,870. The primary upside catalyst is continued Indonesian supply discipline. The primary downside risk is the structural global surplus of approximately 324,000 tonnes and elevated LME inventory near 367,000 tonnes.

Ankit Jaiswal’s nickel price prediction for tomorrow places $19,350 as the LME bull pivot: a sustained break above this April high targets $20,000. Kunal Singla’s nickel price prediction for tomorrow identifies Friday’s US PMI manufacturing data as the near-term directional catalyst, with a reading above 50 supporting stainless steel demand and pushing MCX above Rs 1,870 resistance.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). Commodity and futures trading involves significant risk of loss. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.

FAQs on Nickel Price Prediction for Tomorrow

What is the nickel price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow is cautiously positive, with LME nickel at $18,985 per tonne on 20 May (+1.09%) and MCX nickel reference near Rs 1,808 per kilogram. Indonesia’s 30 per cent mining quota cut is the structural supply driver. LME support is $18,500 and resistance is the April high of $19,350. MCX support is Rs 1,750 and resistance Rs 1,870. US PMI manufacturing data releasing Friday 22 May is the primary near-term catalyst.

What is the LME nickel price today and how has it performed in 2026?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow is anchored by LME nickel at $18,985 per tonne on 20 May 2026, up 1.09 per cent on the day, with a 4.60 per cent monthly gain and a 21.47 per cent year-on-year increase from near five-year lows. LME nickel touched a near two-year high of $19,350 per tonne in April 2026, driven by Indonesia cutting 2026 mining quotas by approximately 30 per cent to 250 million tonnes from 379 million wet metric tonnes in 2025.

Why is Indonesia’s mining quota cut important for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow is highly sensitive to Indonesia because the country controls up to 70 per cent of global nickel supply through ore, nickel pig iron and MHP production. The 2026 quota cut to 250 million tonnes, combined with 10 to 15 per cent of Weda Bay NPI capacity undergoing maintenance, represents a genuine supply reduction after years of aggressive output expansion. This discipline is the primary reason LME nickel has gained 21.47 per cent year-on-year and the key structural driver for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow.

What is the MCX nickel support and resistance for 22 May 2026?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow identifies MCX nickel support at Rs 1,750 per kilogram (first) and Rs 1,680 (second). Resistance levels are Rs 1,870 (first, corresponding to LME $19,350) and Rs 1,950 (second, approaching the Rs 2,000 psychological level). On LME, support is at $18,500 and $18,000. Resistance is the April high of $19,350 and the key $20,000 psychological level.

How does the global nickel surplus affect the nickel price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow faces a persistent headwind from the structural global surplus of approximately 324,000 tonnes, with combined LME and off-warrant warehouse stocks near 367,000 tonnes. This elevated inventory means every price spike faces resistance from physical holders willing to sell. Most analysts expect LME nickel to settle between $15,000 and $20,000 per tonne rather than trending sharply higher. If Indonesia raises quotas back to 300 million tonnes, LME could fall toward $17,800 and MCX toward Rs 1,680.

What is the connection between EV demand and nickel price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. The nickel price prediction for tomorrow is supported by global EV demand growing at approximately 20 per cent year-on-year, with Europe up 30 per cent and the rest of the world up 48 per cent in 2026. Nickel is used in NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) EV batteries. However, the rise of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries reduces nickel intensity per vehicle. The Hormuz Sulfur Crisis has also disrupted battery-grade MHP production, tightening nickel supply for the EV sector.

How does stainless steel demand affect the nickel price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Stainless steel accounts for approximately 70 per cent of total global nickel consumption, making it the most important demand driver for the nickel price prediction for tomorrow. An estimated 2.45 to 2.5 million tonnes of nickel will be consumed by stainless steel production in 2026. Friday’s US PMI manufacturing data is the immediate catalyst: a reading above 50 confirms manufacturing expansion that supports stainless steel orders. China’s stainless production recovery adds structural demand.

How can I trade MCX nickel futures based on the nickel price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. To trade the nickel price prediction for tomorrow on MCX, open a commodity account with a SEBI-registered broker. MCX nickel futures have a lot size of 250 kilograms with a tick size of Rs 1.00, making each tick move worth Rs 250 per lot. Track LME nickel overnight for direction, watch the Friday US PMI release at approximately 7:30 PM IST, and monitor Indonesia production headlines for supply signals. Use the Univest Screener to track live MCX nickel prices and set price alerts. Always consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before trading futures.