{"id":328952,"date":"2026-10-27T17:10:54","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=328952"},"modified":"2026-10-27T17:10:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:40:54","slug":"amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Amazon Stock: Morgan Stanley and UBS Raise Price Targets Ahead of Q3 Results on 29 October, but What Do AWS Margins, Capex and Risks Say?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Amazon stock closed at USD 249.09 on the Nasdaq on Monday, 26 Oct 2026, and UBS raised its target to USD 348 from USD 318 with a Buy rating on the same day, while Morgan Stanley raised its target to USD 350 from USD 335 on 20 Oct. Amazon Q3 results are due on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026, after the US market close, and the USD 348 target is about 39.7% above the close (my calculation).<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">Amazon stock is in focus because UBS and Morgan Stanley have raised price targets to USD 348 and USD 350 ahead of the Amazon Q3 results on 29 Oct, with both pointing to AWS growth and profitability. UBS expects a 2027 AWS operating margin of 46% against a consensus of 38%, while the company guided Q3 net sales to USD 197 billion to USD 202 billion and operating income to USD 22.5 billion to USD 26.5 billion. The risks are capital spending of about USD 200 billion to USD 220 billion this year, negative trailing free cash flow and an options-implied move of about 7.4% on results. This is educational and not a recommendation.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>This is a US-listed share quoted in dollars, so Indian readers should also consider exchange-rate moves and the rules and charges for investing overseas. This article looks at what Morgan Stanley and UBS said, what the market expects from the Q3 results, what the AWS margin debate means for Amazon stock and which risks could change the picture.<\/p>\n<p>I could not retrieve the full UBS and Morgan Stanley notes, the rating attached to the Morgan Stanley target, or the live Amazon stock price on 27 Oct, so the price is the 26 Oct Nasdaq close. Capex figures differ between reports and I show both. It is educational and not advice.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\">Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Amazon_Stock_Price_Targets_From_Morgan_Stanley_and_UBS\" title=\"Amazon Stock: Price Targets From Morgan Stanley and UBS\">Amazon Stock: Price Targets From Morgan Stanley and UBS<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#The_AWS_Margin_Debate_Behind_Amazon_Stock\" title=\"The AWS Margin Debate Behind Amazon Stock\">The AWS Margin Debate Behind Amazon Stock<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_to_Expect_From_Amazon_Stock_on_Q3_Results_Day\" title=\"What to Expect From Amazon Stock on Q3 Results Day\">What to Expect From Amazon Stock on Q3 Results Day<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Capex_Debt_and_Cash_Flow_The_Other_Side_of_Amazon_Stock\" title=\"Capex, Debt and Cash Flow: The Other Side of Amazon Stock\">Capex, Debt and Cash Flow: The Other Side of Amazon Stock<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Risks_to_Amazon_Stock\" title=\"Risks to Amazon Stock\">Risks to Amazon Stock<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Conclusion_Amazon_Stock_Heads_Into_Q3_With_Higher_Targets_and_Higher_Stakes\" title=\"Conclusion: Amazon Stock Heads Into Q3 With Higher Targets and Higher Stakes\">Conclusion: Amazon Stock Heads Into Q3 With Higher Targets and Higher Stakes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions\" title=\"Frequently Asked Questions\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_is_the_Amazon_price_target_from_Morgan_Stanley_and_UBS\" title=\"What is the Amazon price target from Morgan Stanley and UBS?\">What is the Amazon price target from Morgan Stanley and UBS?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#When_are_the_Amazon_Q3_results\" title=\"When are the Amazon Q3 results?\">When are the Amazon Q3 results?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_does_Amazon_guide_for_Q3\" title=\"What does Amazon guide for Q3?\">What does Amazon guide for Q3?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_is_the_AWS_margin_argument_for_Amazon_stock\" title=\"What is the AWS margin argument for Amazon stock?\">What is the AWS margin argument for Amazon stock?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_was_the_Amazon_stock_price_before_the_results\" title=\"What was the Amazon stock price before the results?\">What was the Amazon stock price before the results?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Can_Indian_investors_buy_Amazon_stock\" title=\"Can Indian investors buy Amazon stock?\">Can Indian investors buy Amazon stock?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#What_are_the_biggest_risks_for_Amazon_stock\" title=\"What are the biggest risks for Amazon stock?\">What are the biggest risks for Amazon stock?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/amazon-stock-morgan-stanley-and-ubs-raise-price-targets-ahead-of-q3-results-on-29-october-aws-margins-capex-and-risks\/#Is_this_article_investment_advice\" title=\"Is this article investment advice?\">Is this article investment advice?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Amazon_Stock_Price_Targets_From_Morgan_Stanley_and_UBS\"><\/span><strong>Amazon Stock: Price Targets From Morgan Stanley and UBS<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Amazon stock: broker<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">New target<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Previous and date<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Upside from USD 249.09 (my calculation)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">UBS (Stephen Ju), Buy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 348<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 318; 26 Oct 2026<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 39.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Morgan Stanley<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 350<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 335; 20 Oct 2026; rating not stated in the source<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 40.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Koyfin average of analysts<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 331.72<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Range USD 230 to USD 405; 42 of 60 rate Buy and 16 Strong Buy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 33.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The UBS Amazon price target rests on 18 times its revised 2027 earnings per share, and the Morgan Stanley Amazon price target rests on AWS growth and profitability rather than retail sales alone (as reported). The Amazon stock price had been higher a week earlier, at a close of USD 262.37 on 21 Oct, so the share has fallen about 5.1% since then (my calculation) even as targets were raised. The 52-week range is USD 196.00 to USD 287.20 and the market value is about USD 2.7 trillion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\">Track Amazon stock and global market news on Univest<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_AWS_Margin_Debate_Behind_Amazon_Stock\"><\/span><strong>The AWS Margin Debate Behind Amazon Stock<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Amazon stock: AWS item<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Reading<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Source<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q2 AWS revenue<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 42.23 billion, up 37%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Company results as reported<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q2 AWS operating margin<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 39.4%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Pepperstone preview<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">UBS 2027 AWS margin<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">46%, against a consensus of 38%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">UBS via StockTwits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">UBS AWS revenue add<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About USD 80 billion of incremental revenue and USD 20 billion of added depreciation<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">UBS via StockTwits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q3 AWS growth expected<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 35%, down from 37%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Pepperstone preview<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>UBS argues that the Street&#8217;s AWS margin for 2027 is too low and says Amazon would need about USD 29 billion of extra SG&amp;A to keep its operating margin near the Q2 level of about 39% (as reported). If the AWS margin stays high while growth continues, earnings could beat estimates. If depreciation from the large data centre build-out rises faster than revenue, the margin could disappoint.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_to_Expect_From_Amazon_Stock_on_Q3_Results_Day\"><\/span><strong>What to Expect From Amazon Stock on Q3 Results Day<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Amazon stock: Q3 2026 item<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Guidance or consensus<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Year-ago or note<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Results date<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Thursday, 29 Oct 2026 after US close; call at 5:00 PM ET<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 2:30 AM IST on 30 Oct (my calculation)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Net sales guidance<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 197 billion to USD 202 billion, including about 80 basis points of currency headwind<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Year-ago revenue USD 180.17 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Operating income guidance<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 22.5 billion to USD 26.5 billion<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Midpoint USD 24.5 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Consensus revenue<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About USD 202 billion<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Just above the top of the guidance range<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Consensus EPS<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 1.96<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Year-ago USD 1.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Options-implied move<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 7.4% either way<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Pepperstone preview<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Because consensus revenue already sits at the top of guidance, the market is expecting a beat. In the Q2 reaction the share rose 15.3% the day after results, so the bar for Q3 is higher. An implied move of 7.4% on USD 249.09 equals about USD 18.4 either way (my calculation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"http:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to set price alerts on global stocks and follow results days.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Capex_Debt_and_Cash_Flow_The_Other_Side_of_Amazon_Stock\"><\/span><strong>Capex, Debt and Cash Flow: The Other Side of Amazon Stock<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Amazon stock: cash item<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Reading<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Note<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">2026 capital spending plan<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About USD 220 billion (Pepperstone) or near USD 200 billion (another report)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Reports differ; the plan reportedly rose by USD 20 billion in July on higher memory costs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q2 net capex<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 53.1 billion<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">H2 run-rate of about USD 61.8 billion a quarter would be about 17% higher<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Trailing free cash flow<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Negative USD 7.6 billion<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Expected to stay negative in Q3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Long-term debt<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">USD 128.9 billion<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up from USD 65.6 billion at year-end<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The strategy behind the share is to spend heavily on AI and cloud capacity now and earn higher margins later. That is the bull case in the UBS note, and it is also the main risk, since spending is rising and free cash flow is negative. The same preview notes that Amazon&#8217;s holding in Anthropic, carried at about USD 190.4 billion at 30 June, could move reported earnings if a new pricing event occurs.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Risks_to_Amazon_Stock\"><\/span><strong>Risks to Amazon Stock<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>High expectations.<\/strong> The share rose sharply after Q2, and consensus revenue already sits above guidance.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Capex and debt.<\/strong> Higher spending, negative free cash flow and rising debt raise the cost of any AWS slowdown.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AWS growth.<\/strong> Analysts expect growth to slow to about 35% from 37%, and a bigger slowdown could hurt Amazon stock.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cost inflation.<\/strong> Fuel, memory prices and tariffs can pressure margins in retail and cloud.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Event risk.<\/strong> An implied move of about 7.4% means the share can move sharply in either direction on results.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion_Amazon_Stock_Heads_Into_Q3_With_Higher_Targets_and_Higher_Stakes\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion: Amazon Stock Heads Into Q3 With Higher Targets and Higher Stakes<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Amazon stock enters its 29 Oct results with an Amazon price target of USD 348 from UBS and USD 350 from Morgan Stanley, a guided operating income range of USD 22.5 billion to USD 26.5 billion and a clear debate about AWS margins. Targets are opinions, and results day can move the share by several percent either way. Read the company&#8217;s own release, check the AWS margin and capex lines, and size any position to your own risk profile.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions\"><\/span><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_Amazon_price_target_from_Morgan_Stanley_and_UBS\"><\/span><strong>What is the Amazon price target from Morgan Stanley and UBS?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> UBS raised its target to USD 348 from USD 318 with a Buy rating on 26 Oct 2026, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to USD 350 from USD 335 on 20 Oct 2026. The Morgan Stanley source did not state the rating. Both notes point to AWS growth and profitability.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"When_are_the_Amazon_Q3_results\"><\/span><strong>When are the Amazon Q3 results?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Amazon reports on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026 after the US market close, with the call at 5:00 PM ET. That is about 2:30 AM IST on 30 Oct (my calculation).<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_does_Amazon_guide_for_Q3\"><\/span><strong>What does Amazon guide for Q3?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Amazon guided net sales of USD 197 billion to USD 202 billion and operating income of USD 22.5 billion to USD 26.5 billion. Consensus revenue is about USD 202 billion and consensus EPS is USD 1.96.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_AWS_margin_argument_for_Amazon_stock\"><\/span><strong>What is the AWS margin argument for Amazon stock?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> UBS expects a 2027 AWS operating margin of 46% against a consensus of 38%, with about USD 80 billion of incremental AWS revenue. The risk is about USD 20 billion of added depreciation and heavy capital spending.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_was_the_Amazon_stock_price_before_the_results\"><\/span><strong>What was the Amazon stock price before the results?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Amazon stock closed at USD 249.09 on the Nasdaq on 26 Oct 2026. It had closed at USD 262.37 on 21 Oct. The 52-week range is USD 196.00 to USD 287.20.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Can_Indian_investors_buy_Amazon_stock\"><\/span><strong>Can Indian investors buy Amazon stock?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Amazon stock trades on the Nasdaq in dollars. Investors in India need an account that offers overseas investing and should check the rules, charges and tax treatment, and the effect of the rupee, before investing.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_are_the_biggest_risks_for_Amazon_stock\"><\/span><strong>What are the biggest risks for Amazon stock?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> The main risks are high expectations, capital spending of USD 200 billion to USD 220 billion, negative free cash flow, rising debt, slower AWS growth and a possible move of about 7.4% on results day. The capex figures differ between reports.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_this_article_investment_advice\"><\/span><strong>Is this article investment advice?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the Amazon price target from Morgan Stanley and UBS?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"UBS raised its target to USD 348 from USD 318 with a Buy rating on 26 Oct 2026, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to USD 350 from USD 335 on 20 Oct 2026. The Morgan Stanley source did not state the rating. Both notes point to AWS growth and profitability.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"When are the Amazon Q3 results?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Amazon reports on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026 after the US market close, with the call at 5:00 PM ET. That is about 2:30 AM IST on 30 Oct (my calculation).\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What does Amazon guide for Q3?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Amazon guided net sales of USD 197 billion to USD 202 billion and operating income of USD 22.5 billion to USD 26.5 billion. Consensus revenue is about USD 202 billion and consensus EPS is USD 1.96.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the AWS margin argument for Amazon stock?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"UBS expects a 2027 AWS operating margin of 46% against a consensus of 38%, with about USD 80 billion of incremental AWS revenue. The risk is about USD 20 billion of added depreciation and heavy capital spending.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What was the Amazon stock price before the results?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Amazon stock closed at USD 249.09 on the Nasdaq on 26 Oct 2026. It had closed at USD 262.37 on 21 Oct. The 52-week range is USD 196.00 to USD 287.20.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Can Indian investors buy Amazon stock?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Amazon stock trades on the Nasdaq in dollars. Investors in India need an account that offers overseas investing and should check the rules, charges and tax treatment, and the effect of the rupee, before investing.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are the biggest risks for Amazon stock?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The main risks are high expectations, capital spending of USD 200 billion to USD 220 billion, negative free cash flow, rising debt, slower AWS growth and a possible move of about 7.4% on results day. The capex figures differ between reports.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Is this article investment advice?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.\"}}]}<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amazon stock gets higher targets from Morgan Stanley and UBS before Q3 results on 29 Oct 2026. See AWS margins, expectations, capex, valuation and risks to watch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":328951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[842],"tags":[16916,16914,16909,16912,16908,16915,16913,16910,16911,7122],"class_list":["post-328952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-amazon-capex","tag-amazon-earnings-preview","tag-amazon-price-target","tag-amazon-q3-results","tag-amazon-stock","tag-amzn-stock","tag-aws-margin","tag-morgan-stanley-amazon","tag-ubs-amazon","tag-us-stocks"],"metadata":{"rank_math_internal_links_processed":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["328951"],"rank_math_title":["Amazon Stock: Morgan Stanley, UBS Raise Targets Before Q3"],"rank_math_description":["Amazon stock gets higher targets from Morgan Stanley and UBS before Q3 results on 29 Oct 2026. 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