{"id":302149,"date":"2026-10-12T13:11:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T07:41:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=302149"},"modified":"2026-10-12T13:11:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T07:41:13","slug":"adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/","title":{"rendered":"Adani Green Energy Shares Up 16% in 6 Months: Jefferies Sees 35% More Upside With Target Price Rs 1,695, 22% Correction From Peak, 20x EV\/EBITDA, 30% EBITDA CAGR, Q1 FY27 Numbers and Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Adani Green Energy shares: about Rs 1,269. Jefferies Buy, target Rs 1,695 (about 34% above, my calculation; report says 35%). 22% below peak, 20x 1Y forward EV\/EBITDA, EBITDA CAGR 30% (FY26-30E). Q1 FY27 EBITDA Rs 4,122 cr (+33%).<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">Adani Green Energy shares are up about 16% in six months and trade near Rs 1,269, and Jefferies has a Buy rating with a target of Rs 1,695, which is about 34% above that price (my calculation, while the report says 35%). Jefferies says the stock has corrected about 22% from its peak and trades at about 20 times one-year forward EV\/EBITDA, which looks attractive against an expected 30% EBITDA CAGR over FY26 to FY30. Q1 FY27 supported the case, with power supply EBITDA up 33% to Rs 4,122 crore and operational capacity up 27% to 20,142 MW, but finance costs of Rs 2,001 crore absorb about half of that EBITDA (my calculation). Risks include the recent RBI rate hike, utilisation below Jefferies&#8217; assumptions and execution delays at Khavda, so a target price is an opinion and not a guarantee.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Adani Green Energy shares are the listed flagship of the Adani group&#8217;s renewable business, with more than 20 GW of operating capacity and a plan to reach 50 GW by 2030. A fresh Buy call from Jefferies after a 22% fall from the peak has put Adani Green Energy shares back in the spotlight.<\/p>\n<p>This article covers the Jefferies call, how the target is built, the valuation, the Q1 FY27 results, the Khavda and storage plans, the triggers, the risks and a checklist, so you can judge Adani Green Energy shares from the numbers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\">Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Adani_Green_Energy_Shares_The_Jefferies_Call_in_Numbers\" title=\"Adani Green Energy Shares: The Jefferies Call in Numbers\">Adani Green Energy Shares: The Jefferies Call in Numbers<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Jefferies_Scenarios_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\" title=\"Jefferies Scenarios for Adani Green Energy Shares\">Jefferies Scenarios for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Why_Jefferies_Is_Bullish_on_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\" title=\"Why Jefferies Is Bullish on Adani Green Energy Shares\">Why Jefferies Is Bullish on Adani Green Energy Shares<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Adani_Green_Energy_Shares_and_the_Q1_FY27_Results\" title=\"Adani Green Energy Shares and the Q1 FY27 Results\">Adani Green Energy Shares and the Q1 FY27 Results<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Khavda_Storage_and_Capex_Plans\" title=\"Khavda, Storage and Capex Plans\">Khavda, Storage and Capex Plans<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Promoter_Funding_and_Balance_Sheet\" title=\"Promoter Funding and Balance Sheet\">Promoter Funding and Balance Sheet<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Risks_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\" title=\"Risks for Adani Green Energy Shares\">Risks for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#What_to_Watch_Next_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\" title=\"What to Watch Next for Adani Green Energy Shares\">What to Watch Next for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions\" title=\"Frequently Asked Questions\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#What_is_the_Jefferies_target_price_for_Adani_Green_Energy_shares\" title=\"What is the Jefferies target price for Adani Green Energy shares?\">What is the Jefferies target price for Adani Green Energy shares?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#How_much_have_Adani_Green_Energy_shares_returned\" title=\"How much have Adani Green Energy shares returned?\">How much have Adani Green Energy shares returned?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Is_Adani_Green_Energy_valuation_attractive\" title=\"Is Adani Green Energy valuation attractive?\">Is Adani Green Energy valuation attractive?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#How_did_Adani_Green_do_in_Q1_FY27\" title=\"How did Adani Green do in Q1 FY27?\">How did Adani Green do in Q1 FY27?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#What_is_Khavda\" title=\"What is Khavda?\">What is Khavda?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#What_are_the_Jefferies_upside_and_downside_cases\" title=\"What are the Jefferies upside and downside cases?\">What are the Jefferies upside and downside cases?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#What_are_the_main_risks_for_Adani_Green_Energy_shares\" title=\"What are the main risks for Adani Green Energy shares?\">What are the main risks for Adani Green Energy shares?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-18\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-percent-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-percent-more-upside-target-price-rs-1695\/#Should_I_buy_Adani_Green_Energy_shares_after_the_Jefferies_call\" title=\"Should I buy Adani Green Energy shares after the Jefferies call?\">Should I buy Adani Green Energy shares after the Jefferies call?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Adani_Green_Energy_Shares_The_Jefferies_Call_in_Numbers\"><\/span><strong>Adani Green Energy Shares: The Jefferies Call in Numbers<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Item<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Detail<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Note<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rating<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Jefferies India<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Target price<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 1,695<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Based on 20 times EV\/EBITDA for September 2028E, per the September note<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Share price<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 1,269<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Ticker on the Business Today page<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Upside<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 34%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">My calculation; the report says 35%, likely from a different reference price<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Correction<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 22% from the peak<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Jefferies<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Valuation<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 20 times one-year forward EV\/EBITDA<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Described as reasonable<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">EBITDA growth<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 30% CAGR over FY26 to FY30E<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">EPS CAGR about 26%, per the September note<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Six-month return<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up about 16%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">From the headline<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The difference between 34% and 35% is a reminder that upside figures depend on the reference price, so always check the price used for Adani Green Energy shares.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\">Check the Univest Screener for live data on renewable energy stocks<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jefferies_Scenarios_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\"><\/span><strong>Jefferies Scenarios for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Case<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Target<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Multiple<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Move from about Rs 1,274 (September)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Upside case<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,140<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">22 times EV\/EBITDA<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 69% up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Base case<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 1,695<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">20 times EV\/EBITDA<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 34% up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Downside case<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 1,250<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">18 times EV\/EBITDA<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 2% down<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>These cases are from the 18 September note. The narrow gap between the downside case and the current price is the argument that risk and reward for Adani Green Energy shares looks favourable, though it depends on the assumptions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"http:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track Adani Green Energy shares and renewable stocks live.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Jefferies_Is_Bullish_on_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\"><\/span><strong>Why Jefferies Is Bullish on Adani Green Energy Shares<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>Capacity growth: Jefferies expects 6.5 to 6.8 GW of annual additions in FY28E to FY30E on a 44 GW capacity base, with Khavda over 65% of incremental additions by FY30E.<\/li>\n<li>Valuation: 20 times forward EV\/EBITDA after a 22% correction, with the premium to JSW Energy narrowing from 264% in January 2023 to 58%.<\/li>\n<li>Demand: strong power demand and better utilisation from higher temperatures should largely offset higher interest costs.<\/li>\n<li>Long-term contracts: most installed capacity is covered by long-term power purchase agreements, which supports cash flow visibility.<\/li>\n<li>Power shortage risk: if El Ni\u00f1o persists into 2027, power shortages could help, and coal stocks are at critical levels of under seven days.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>These are the brokerage&#8217;s arguments for Adani Green Energy shares, and each depends on execution and weather.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Adani_Green_Energy_Shares_and_the_Q1_FY27_Results\"><\/span><strong>Adani Green Energy Shares and the Q1 FY27 Results<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Measure<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Q1 FY27<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Revenue from operations<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 4,663 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 16%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Revenue from power supply<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 4,280 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 29%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">EBITDA from power supply<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 4,122 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 33%; margin 94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Net profit<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 845 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 19% from Rs 713 crore<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Cash profit<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,225 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up from Rs 1,744 crore<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Finance costs<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,001 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up from Rs 1,525 crore, about 31% higher (my calculation)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Operational capacity<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">20,142 MW<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 27%; 848 MW added in the quarter<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Energy sales<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">13,657 million units<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Up 30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Profit grew slower than EBITDA because interest and depreciation rose with the new capacity. Other reports show slightly different net profit figures, so check the exchange filing for Adani Green Energy shares.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Khavda_Storage_and_Capex_Plans\"><\/span><strong>Khavda, Storage and Capex Plans<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Item<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Detail<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Khavda capacity<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">10.3 GW operational, up from 5.6 GW a year earlier; target of 30 GW by 2029<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">FY27 target<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">5 GW of renewable capacity and more than 10,000 MWh of battery storage<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Battery storage<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">3,551 MWh installed at June 2026, per the company; the Business Today article cites 6.6 GWh, so verify<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">2030 goal<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">50 GW of renewable capacity, including 5 GW of pumped storage<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">FY27E capex<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 42,000 crore, per Jefferies in September<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Net debt to EBITDA<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Expected to fall from 8.9 times in FY26 to 7.1 times by FY30E<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Jefferies notes that each 200 bps gain in solar utilisation adds about 20% to profits, which is why utilisation at Khavda matters so much for Adani Green Energy shares.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Promoter_Funding_and_Balance_Sheet\"><\/span><strong>Promoter Funding and Balance Sheet<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The promoter group subscribed to 6.3 crore warrants in 2024 at Rs 1,480.75 per share, with a planned equity investment of Rs 9,350 crore. The report says 25% was paid in 2024 and the balance between April and July 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Debt remains high, with net debt at 8.9 times EBITDA in FY26, so the interest burden is a key variable for Adani Green Energy shares.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Risks_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\"><\/span><strong>Risks for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Interest costs:<\/strong> The RBI&#8217;s recent rate hike may raise interest costs, though Jefferies expects the drag to be limited.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Utilisation:<\/strong> Current utilisation is below Jefferies&#8217; assumptions, so the upside depends on improvement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Execution:<\/strong> Delays at Khavda or in transmission and aggressive bidding for projects can hurt returns.<\/p>\n<p><strong>High debt:<\/strong> Net debt of 8.9 times EBITDA leaves less room for error.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Target risk:<\/strong> A brokerage target is an opinion, and the 35% figure differs from the 34% implied by the price.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_to_Watch_Next_for_Adani_Green_Energy_Shares\"><\/span><strong>What to Watch Next for Adani Green Energy Shares<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>Q2 FY27 capacity additions and utilisation.<\/li>\n<li>Progress at Khavda and the battery storage build.<\/li>\n<li>Interest costs after the RBI rate hike.<\/li>\n<li>Power demand and weather, including El Ni\u00f1o.<\/li>\n<li>Any change in the Jefferies target or other brokerages&#8217; views.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Adani Green Energy shares are up about 16% in six months, and Jefferies sees roughly 34% to 35% more upside to Rs 1,695, backed by 20 times forward EV\/EBITDA and a 30% EBITDA CAGR. High debt, interest costs and utilisation are the swing factors. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decision.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions\"><\/span><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_Jefferies_target_price_for_Adani_Green_Energy_shares\"><\/span><strong>What is the Jefferies target price for Adani Green Energy shares?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Rs 1,695 with a Buy rating, based on 20 times EV\/EBITDA. That is about 34% above Rs 1,269 (my calculation), and the report says 35%.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_much_have_Adani_Green_Energy_shares_returned\"><\/span><strong>How much have Adani Green Energy shares returned?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Up about 16% in six months, after a correction of about 22% from the peak, per the headline and Jefferies.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_Adani_Green_Energy_valuation_attractive\"><\/span><strong>Is Adani Green Energy valuation attractive?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Jefferies calls 20 times one-year forward EV\/EBITDA reasonable given an expected 30% EBITDA CAGR over FY26 to FY30.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_did_Adani_Green_do_in_Q1_FY27\"><\/span><strong>How did Adani Green do in Q1 FY27?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> EBITDA from power supply rose 33% to Rs 4,122 crore, net profit rose 19% to Rs 845 crore and capacity rose 27% to 20,142 MW.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Khavda\"><\/span><strong>What is Khavda?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Khavda is Adani Green&#8217;s large renewable energy park in Gujarat, with 10.3 GW operational and a target of 30 GW by 2029.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_are_the_Jefferies_upside_and_downside_cases\"><\/span><strong>What are the Jefferies upside and downside cases?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Rs 2,140 at 22 times, Rs 1,695 at 20 times and Rs 1,250 at 18 times EV\/EBITDA, from the 18 September note.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_are_the_main_risks_for_Adani_Green_Energy_shares\"><\/span><strong>What are the main risks for Adani Green Energy shares?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> The RBI rate hike, utilisation below assumptions, execution delays at Khavda and high debt.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Should_I_buy_Adani_Green_Energy_shares_after_the_Jefferies_call\"><\/span><strong>Should I buy Adani Green Energy shares after the Jefferies call?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> This article does not constitute investment advice. Adani Green Energy shares are volatile. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the Jefferies target price for Adani Green Energy shares?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Rs 1,695 with a Buy rating, based on 20 times EV\/EBITDA. That is about 34% above Rs 1,269 (my calculation), and the report says 35%.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How much have Adani Green Energy shares returned?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Up about 16% in six months, after a correction of about 22% from the peak, per the headline and Jefferies.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Is Adani Green Energy valuation attractive?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Jefferies calls 20 times one-year forward EV\/EBITDA reasonable given an expected 30% EBITDA CAGR over FY26 to FY30.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How did Adani Green do in Q1 FY27?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"EBITDA from power supply rose 33% to Rs 4,122 crore, net profit rose 19% to Rs 845 crore and capacity rose 27% to 20,142 MW.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is Khavda?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Khavda is Adani Green's large renewable energy park in Gujarat, with 10.3 GW operational and a target of 30 GW by 2029.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are the Jefferies upside and downside cases?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Rs 2,140 at 22 times, Rs 1,695 at 20 times and Rs 1,250 at 18 times EV\/EBITDA, from the 18 September note.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are the main risks for Adani Green Energy shares?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"The RBI rate hike, utilisation below assumptions, execution delays at Khavda and high debt.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Should I buy Adani Green Energy shares after the Jefferies call?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"This article does not constitute investment advice. Adani Green Energy shares are volatile. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.\"}}]}<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Adani Green Energy shares: Jefferies sees 35% upside with a Rs 1,695 target. See valuation, Q1 FY27 numbers, Khavda plans and risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":302148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[842],"tags":[11317,11318,7763,11319,5824],"class_list":["post-302149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-adani-green-energy-shares","tag-adani-green-share-price","tag-jefferies","tag-khavda","tag-renewable-energy-stocks"],"metadata":{"rank_math_internal_links_processed":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["302148"],"rank_math_title":["Adani Green Energy Shares: Jefferies Sees 35% Upside, Rs 1,695"],"rank_math_description":["Adani Green Energy shares: Jefferies sees 35% upside with a Rs 1,695 target. See the 20x EV\/EBITDA valuation, Q1 FY27 numbers, Khavda plan, triggers and risks."],"rank_math_focus_keyword":["Adani Green Energy shares"],"rank_math_robots":["a:2:{i:0;s:7:\"noindex\";i:1;s:8:\"nofollow\";}"]},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/adani-green-energy-shares-up-16-in-6-months-jefferies-sees-35-more-upside-with.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/302149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=302149"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/302149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":302150,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/302149\/revisions\/302150"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/302148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=302149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=302149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=302149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}