{"id":294180,"date":"2026-10-08T11:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T05:37:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=294180"},"modified":"2026-10-08T11:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T05:37:05","slug":"adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/","title":{"rendered":"Adani Energy Solutions Is Among Jefferies India&#8217;s Top 3 Power Picks Despite the RBI&#8217;s 25 bps Rate Hike: Regulated Equity, Fixed-Rate Loans and Lower Pass-Through, the Rs 2,060 Target, Debt and the Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Jefferies top 3 power picks: AESL, JSW Energy, NTPC. AESL target Rs 2,060 vs about Rs 1,354 (+52%). Net debt Rs 43,428 cr. Power seen shielded from hikes.<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">Adani Energy Solutions is among Jefferies India&#8217;s top three power picks, with JSW Energy and NTPC, and the brokerage says power companies have some protection against the RBI&#8217;s 25 bps rate hike through regulated equity returns, fixed-rate loans and lower pass-through of rate increases, while its target of Rs 2,060 is about 52% above the price near Rs 1,354. The case rests on India&#8217;s only listed private-sector pure-play transmission and distribution company, with an earnings growth rate of about 21% a year to FY30, a share of about 23% in private competitive transmission bids and a Rs 1.1 trillion bid pipeline. The balance sheet is the counterpoint, with net debt of about Rs 43,428 crore at March 2026, capex of Rs 3,498 crore in Q1 alone and a P\/E near 55 times, so even a protected rate profile can hurt if funding costs rise. The stock is down about 18% in three months, so the Jefferies call is a view that execution and the order book will outweigh valuation and rate risk.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Adani Energy Solutions is the transmission and distribution arm of the Adani group, with a network of 27,949 circuit kilometres and a growing smart-metering and energy-trading business. The Jefferies note comes at a time when power demand is up about 15% year on year in September and coal stocks at plants are thin.<\/p>\n<p>If you are deciding whether a rate hike changes the power thesis, this article covers the Jefferies top picks among power stocks (Adani Energy Solutions, JSW Energy and NTPC), the argument on rate protection, the Adani Energy Solutions target of Rs 2,060 against Rs 1,354, the 21% earnings growth and smart meter business, net debt of Rs 43,428 crore, valuation and the risks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\">Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Adani_Energy_Solutions_Why_Jefferies_Says_Power_Is_Protected_From_the_Rate_Hike\" title=\"Adani Energy Solutions: Why Jefferies Says Power Is Protected From the Rate Hike\">Adani Energy Solutions: Why Jefferies Says Power Is Protected From the Rate Hike<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Jefferies_Top_Picks_The_Top_3_Power_Picks_Including_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"Jefferies Top Picks: The Top 3 Power Picks Including Adani Energy Solutions\">Jefferies Top Picks: The Top 3 Power Picks Including Adani Energy Solutions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Growth_Drivers_Behind_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"Growth Drivers Behind Adani Energy Solutions\">Growth Drivers Behind Adani Energy Solutions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Debt_and_Rate_Sensitivity_of_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"Debt and Rate Sensitivity of Adani Energy Solutions\">Debt and Rate Sensitivity of Adani Energy Solutions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Valuation_and_the_Adani_Energy_Solutions_Target\" title=\"Valuation and the Adani Energy Solutions Target\">Valuation and the Adani Energy Solutions Target<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Risks_Behind_the_Jefferies_Call_on_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"Risks Behind the Jefferies Call on Adani Energy Solutions\">Risks Behind the Jefferies Call on Adani Energy Solutions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#What_to_Watch_Next_for_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"What to Watch Next for Adani Energy Solutions\">What to Watch Next for Adani Energy Solutions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions\" title=\"Frequently Asked Questions\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Why_is_Adani_Energy_Solutions_among_the_Jefferies_top_picks\" title=\"Why is Adani Energy Solutions among the Jefferies top picks?\">Why is Adani Energy Solutions among the Jefferies top picks?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Does_the_RBI_rate_hike_hurt_power_companies\" title=\"Does the RBI rate hike hurt power companies?\">Does the RBI rate hike hurt power companies?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#What_are_Jefferies_other_top_power_picks\" title=\"What are Jefferies&#8217; other top power picks?\">What are Jefferies&#8217; other top power picks?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#What_is_the_Adani_Energy_Solutions_target_price\" title=\"What is the Adani Energy Solutions target price?\">What is the Adani Energy Solutions target price?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#How_much_debt_does_Adani_Energy_Solutions_have\" title=\"How much debt does Adani Energy Solutions have?\">How much debt does Adani Energy Solutions have?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#How_expensive_is_Adani_Energy_Solutions\" title=\"How expensive is Adani Energy Solutions?\">How expensive is Adani Energy Solutions?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#What_are_the_main_risks\" title=\"What are the main risks?\">What are the main risks?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/adani-energy-solutions-jefferies-top-pick-rbi-rate-hike-regulated-equity-fixed-rate-loans\/#Should_I_buy_Adani_Energy_Solutions_now\" title=\"Should I buy Adani Energy Solutions now?\">Should I buy Adani Energy Solutions now?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Adani_Energy_Solutions_Why_Jefferies_Says_Power_Is_Protected_From_the_Rate_Hike\"><\/span><strong>Adani Energy Solutions: Why Jefferies Says Power Is Protected From the Rate Hike<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Protection<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">How it works<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">My note<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Regulated equity<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Transmission and similar assets earn a regulated return on the equity part of their capital<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Returns do not move with market rates day to day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Fixed-rate loans<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">A part of power companies&#8217; debt is at fixed rates<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Only new and floating debt reprices<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Lower rate-hike pass-through<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Regulators and tariffs pass on only part of a rate rise<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Both a shield and a limit on upside<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>These are the points in the Jefferies report as summarised in the headline, and the exact share of fixed-rate debt at Adani Energy Solutions is not given in my sources, so check the company&#8217;s disclosures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\">Check the Univest Screener for live data on power stocks<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jefferies_Top_Picks_The_Top_3_Power_Picks_Including_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>Jefferies Top Picks: The Top 3 Power Picks Including Adani Energy Solutions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Stock<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Jefferies view<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Target and upside<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Adani Energy Solutions<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy; a top pick<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,060, about 52% above Rs 1,354<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">JSW Energy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy; a top pick<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 720, about 45% to 48% upside<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">NTPC<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy; a top pick<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Target not stated in my sources<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Adani Power<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 270, about 38% upside<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Adani Green Energy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Buy<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 1,695, about 37% upside<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Tata Power<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Underperform<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 335, below the price<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Jefferies expects utilities to keep growing earnings from FY26 to FY29 through execution, and it names Adani Energy Solutions for visible EBITDA growth above 20%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"http:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track Adani Energy Solutions and power stocks live.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Growth_Drivers_Behind_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>Growth Drivers Behind Adani Energy Solutions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Driver<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Detail<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Transmission bids<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 23% share of private competitive bidding, second only to Power Grid; the industry bid pipeline is about Rs 1.1 trillion against Rs 900 billion a year ago<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Projects under execution<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 718 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Earnings growth<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 21% a year through FY30, according to Jefferies<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Smart metering<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Scaling up, including the IntelliSmart acquisition<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Power trading<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">A 25-year round-the-clock supply agreement for 2.5 GW with Maharashtra&#8217;s distribution company; contracted capacity to rise from about 20% in Q1 FY27 to about 57% by FY28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q1 FY27 results<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Revenue about Rs 9,711 crore; profit of about Rs 1,150 crore to Rs 1,237 crore, more than double a year earlier, according to different sources<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Capex rose about 57% to Rs 3,498 crore in Q1 FY27 and annual capex runs at Rs 200 billion to Rs 250 billion, which is the fuel for its growth and also the reason for its debt.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Debt_and_Rate_Sensitivity_of_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>Debt and Rate Sensitivity of Adani Energy Solutions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Measure<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Figure<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Comment<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Net debt<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 43,428 crore at March 2026<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rising with capex<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Upper bound of a 25 bps rate effect<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 109 crore a year before tax<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">If all net debt were floating, my calculation; the real effect is smaller<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Q1 FY27 profit<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 1,150 crore to Rs 1,237 crore<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">A year&#8217;s upper-bound effect is under 10% of one quarter&#8217;s profit<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Price to earnings<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 55 times trailing and 41 times forward<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">A premium valuation sensitive to yields<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Price move<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Down about 18% in three months, up about 47% in a year<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Volatile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The direct interest cost of a 25 bps hike looks small for the company, and the bigger risk to the stock is a higher discount rate on a premium multiple if yields keep rising.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Valuation_and_the_Adani_Energy_Solutions_Target\"><\/span><strong>Valuation and the Adani Energy Solutions Target<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Source<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Target<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;background:#0A0E1A;color:#FFFFFF;\">Note<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Jefferies<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,060<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Raised from Rs 1,905; sum-of-the-parts<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Jefferies upside case<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Rs 2,400<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">If transmission and smart-meter wins add up<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Consensus of nine analysts<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 1,748<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About 29% above the price<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Price on 7 October<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">About Rs 1,354<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #DDDDDD;\">Market capitalisation about Rs 1.66 lakh crore<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Jefferies values the trading business at 5 times EV\/EBITDA against 22 times for the rest, so the trading segment adds less to Adani Energy Solutions than its headline growth suggests.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Risks_Behind_the_Jefferies_Call_on_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>Risks Behind the Jefferies Call on Adani Energy Solutions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Debt and funding costs:<\/strong> Net debt above Rs 43,000 crore and heavy capex make refinancing and rates relevant.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Market share:<\/strong> Jefferies lists loss of market share in transmission bids as a downside.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Execution:<\/strong> Delays in commissioning projects would hit growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Valuation:<\/strong> A P\/E near 55 times leaves little room for a miss.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Group and governance perceptions:<\/strong> Adani group stocks can swing on sentiment that is unrelated to results.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_to_Watch_Next_for_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>What to Watch Next for Adani Energy Solutions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>Q2 FY27 results, expected in late October, for profit, capex and debt.<\/li>\n<li>New transmission bid wins and the order book.<\/li>\n<li>Smart-meter rollout and trading contracts.<\/li>\n<li>Bond yields and the RBI&#8217;s next move in December.<\/li>\n<li>Whether the stock holds recent support after a fall of about 18% in three months.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Adani Energy Solutions is a top 3 Jefferies power pick with a target of Rs 2,060, about 52% above its price, and the brokerage argues that regulated equity, fixed-rate loans and lower pass-through shield power companies from the RBI&#8217;s 25 bps hike. Net debt of Rs 43,428 crore and a P\/E near 55 times are the risks, and results in late October are the next test. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decision.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions\"><\/span><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_is_Adani_Energy_Solutions_among_the_Jefferies_top_picks\"><\/span><strong>Why is Adani Energy Solutions among the Jefferies top picks?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Jefferies cites visible EBITDA growth above 20%, a strong transmission bid pipeline, smart metering and trading deals, and puts the target at Rs 2,060.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Does_the_RBI_rate_hike_hurt_power_companies\"><\/span><strong>Does the RBI rate hike hurt power companies?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Jefferies says they have some protection through regulated equity, fixed-rate loans and lower pass-through of hikes.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_are_Jefferies_other_top_power_picks\"><\/span><strong>What are Jefferies&#8217; other top power picks?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> JSW Energy and NTPC, along with Adani Energy Solutions.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_Adani_Energy_Solutions_target_price\"><\/span><strong>What is the Adani Energy Solutions target price?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Jefferies has Rs 2,060, with an upside case of Rs 2,400, against a price near Rs 1,354.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_much_debt_does_Adani_Energy_Solutions_have\"><\/span><strong>How much debt does Adani Energy Solutions have?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Net debt was about Rs 43,428 crore at March 2026 and is rising with capex.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_expensive_is_Adani_Energy_Solutions\"><\/span><strong>How expensive is Adani Energy Solutions?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> It trades near 55 times trailing and 41 times forward earnings.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_are_the_main_risks\"><\/span><strong>What are the main risks?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Debt and funding costs, loss of market share, project delays, valuation and group sentiment.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Should_I_buy_Adani_Energy_Solutions_now\"><\/span><strong>Should I buy Adani Energy Solutions now?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> This article does not constitute investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why is Adani Energy Solutions among the Jefferies top picks?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Jefferies cites visible EBITDA growth above 20%, a strong transmission bid pipeline, smart metering and trading deals, and puts the target at Rs 2,060.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Does the RBI rate hike hurt power companies?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Jefferies says they have some protection through regulated equity, fixed-rate loans and lower pass-through of hikes.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are Jefferies' other top power picks?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"JSW Energy and NTPC, along with Adani Energy Solutions.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is the Adani Energy Solutions target price?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Jefferies has Rs 2,060, with an upside case of Rs 2,400, against a price near Rs 1,354.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How much debt does Adani Energy Solutions have?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Net debt was about Rs 43,428 crore at March 2026 and is rising with capex.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How expensive is Adani Energy Solutions?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"It trades near 55 times trailing and 41 times forward earnings.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What are the main risks?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Debt and funding costs, loss of market share, project delays, valuation and group sentiment.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Should I buy Adani Energy Solutions now?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"This article does not constitute investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.\"}}]}<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Adani Energy Solutions is a Jefferies top 3 power pick despite the RBI hike. See the protection thesis, target, debt and risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":294179,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[842],"tags":[8054,8057,10005,4293,9471,8320],"class_list":["post-294180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-adani-energy-solutions","tag-adani-group","tag-jefferies-top-picks","tag-power-stocks","tag-rbi-rate-hike","tag-transmission"],"metadata":{"rank_math_internal_links_processed":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["294179"],"rank_math_title":["Adani Energy Solutions: Jefferies Top Pick Despite RBI Rate Hike"],"rank_math_description":["Adani Energy Solutions is a Jefferies top 3 power pick despite the RBI hike. 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