{"id":289062,"date":"2026-10-06T10:44:35","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T05:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=289062"},"modified":"2026-10-06T10:44:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T05:14:35","slug":"rbi-mpc-october-2026-25-bps-hike-impact-sensex-nifty-bank-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-mpc-october-2026-25-bps-hike-impact-sensex-nifty-bank-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI MPC October 2026: Will the Repo Rate Rise 25 bps on 7 October? Three Possible Outcomes, What Economists Expect, and the Likely Impact on Sensex, Nifty, Bank Stocks, Home Loan EMIs and the Rupee"},"content":{"rendered":"

RBI MPC decision 7 Oct. Repo 5.25%. Most economists expect +25 bps to 5.50% (BS poll 8 of 10). CPI 4.82%, Brent >$100, rupee about 96. Nifty 22,556.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n

RBI MPC concludes its three-day meeting on 7 October, and most economists expect a 25 basis point hike in the repo rate to 5.50% from 5.25%, which would be the first increase since February 2023, with eight of ten economists in a Business Standard poll and 80% in a Financial Express poll backing it. The case rests on retail inflation of 4.82% in August, Brent above $100, a rupee near 96 and strong growth, while a minority, including HDFC Bank, expects a hold to support the festive season. Markets see three outcomes: a hold, a 25 bps hike or a larger hike, and a hike is largely priced in, so the reaction will depend on the tone and guidance. A 25 bps hike would add about Rs 850 to the monthly EMI on a Rs 50 lakh, 25-year loan, my calculation, and it can hit rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, autos and NBFCs while helping banks with repo-linked loans.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

RBI MPC is the next big trigger for Indian markets, with the six-member Monetary Policy Committee chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra due to announce its decision on Wednesday, 7 October. The repo rate has been held at 5.25% for four straight meetings after 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, and the Nifty closed at 22,555.75 on 5 October after an eight-week losing streak.<\/p>\n

If you are searching for what to expect from the RBI MPC, this article covers the poll expectations for a repo rate hike to 5.50%, the three possible outcomes, why inflation and crude matter, the likely impact on the Sensex, Nifty, bank stocks, NBFC shares and other sectors, the home loan EMI effect, the rupee and bond yields, a scenario table and the risks. Forecasts are from polls and brokerages, so the actual decision may differ.<\/p>\n

Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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