{"id":262625,"date":"2026-09-23T09:22:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T03:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=262625"},"modified":"2026-09-23T09:22:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T03:52:45","slug":"rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI May Hike the Repo Rate by 50-75 bps This Cycle, Says Bandhan Life&#8217;s Avinash Agarwal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Avinash Agarwal, Bandhan Life: RBI may hike the policy repo rate by 50-75 bps this cycle, among the more aggressive tightening forecasts.<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">The Reserve Bank of India may hike the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle, according to Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life, in comments carried in Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column. Agarwal&#8217;s forecast sits at the more aggressive end of the range of RBI tightening estimates that have emerged from various economists and fund managers in recent weeks, several of whom have converged on the view that some degree of rate hikes is now likely, even as they differ meaningfully on the total magnitude.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of India may raise the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle, according to Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life, speaking to Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<p>Agarwal&#8217;s forecast sits at the more aggressive end of the spectrum of RBI tightening estimates that have circulated in recent weeks, with the 50-75 basis point range implying either two hikes of roughly similar size or one larger move, depending on how the central bank chooses to sequence its response.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\"><strong>Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#How_This_Forecast_Compares_With_Other_Recent_Views\" title=\"How This Forecast Compares With Other Recent Views\">How This Forecast Compares With Other Recent Views<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#What_Would_Justify_the_More_Aggressive_End_of_This_Range\" title=\"What Would Justify the More Aggressive End of This Range\">What Would Justify the More Aggressive End of This Range<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#What_This_Means_for_Rate-Sensitive_Sectors\" title=\"What This Means for Rate-Sensitive Sectors\">What This Means for Rate-Sensitive Sectors<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#FAQs\" title=\"FAQs\">FAQs<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#What_did_Avinash_Agarwal_say_about_the_RBI_repo_rate\" title=\"What did Avinash Agarwal say about the RBI repo rate?\">What did Avinash Agarwal say about the RBI repo rate?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#How_does_this_forecast_compare_with_other_RBI_rate_hike_estimates\" title=\"How does this forecast compare with other RBI rate hike estimates?\">How does this forecast compare with other RBI rate hike estimates?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#Who_is_Avinash_Agarwal\" title=\"Who is Avinash Agarwal?\">Who is Avinash Agarwal?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#What_factors_would_justify_a_50-75_basis_point_rate_hike\" title=\"What factors would justify a 50-75 basis point rate hike?\">What factors would justify a 50-75 basis point rate hike?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#Which_sectors_are_most_exposed_to_a_more_aggressive_RBI_rate_hike\" title=\"Which sectors are most exposed to a more aggressive RBI rate hike?\">Which sectors are most exposed to a more aggressive RBI rate hike?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-bandhan-life-avinash-agarwal-50-75-bps\/#Is_there_consensus_on_the_exact_size_of_the_expected_RBI_rate_hike\" title=\"Is there consensus on the exact size of the expected RBI rate hike?\">Is there consensus on the exact size of the expected RBI rate hike?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_This_Forecast_Compares_With_Other_Recent_Views\"><\/span><strong>How This Forecast Compares With Other Recent Views<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Agarwal&#8217;s 50-75 basis point range is broadly in line with, though at the higher end of, forecasts from other economists who have separately projected two hikes over a similar timeframe, while it sits above more conservative estimates such as a single 25 basis point move floated by some rating agencies.<\/p>\n<p>This spread of estimates, from a single modest hike to a cumulative 75 basis points, reflects genuine uncertainty about how much tightening will actually be needed, rather than a lack of consensus on direction, since virtually every recent forecast agrees the RBI&#8217;s extended pause is coming to an end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\"><strong>Track Rate-Sensitive Stocks on the Univest Screener<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Would_Justify_the_More_Aggressive_End_of_This_Range\"><\/span><strong>What Would Justify the More Aggressive End of This Range<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A 50-75 basis point cumulative hike would typically be justified by a combination of persistently elevated inflation running well above the RBI&#8217;s comfort zone, sustained currency pressure requiring a wider interest rate differential to support the rupee, and continued strength in domestic demand that gives the central bank room to tighten without meaningfully denting growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/hal-share-price-citi-goldman-sachs-buy-rating-target-price\">HAL Share Price Rises 1% as Citi and Goldman Sachs Stick With Buy Calls, See Up to 27% Upside<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Agarwal&#8217;s framing suggests he sees enough of these pressures building simultaneously to warrant a more decisive policy response than the RBI has signalled through its recent pause, a view that will be tested against actual incoming inflation and currency data over the coming Monetary Policy Committee meetings.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_This_Means_for_Rate-Sensitive_Sectors\"><\/span><strong>What This Means for Rate-Sensitive Sectors<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A tightening cycle at the more aggressive end of current forecasts would have meaningful implications for rate-sensitive sectors including real estate, auto financing and banking net interest margins, since borrowing costs across the economy would rise more than under the milder single-hike scenarios some other forecasters have floated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/moodys-india-fy27-gdp-forecast-7-percent-middle-east\">Moody&#8217;s Raises India&#8217;s FY27 GDP Forecast to 7%, Citing Resilience Amid Middle East Conflict<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Investors in these sectors should treat the current spread of RBI forecasts, from 25 basis points to as much as 75, as a genuine range of plausible outcomes rather than a settled number, and should watch for how the central bank&#8217;s own communication evolves at its next policy review for a clearer signal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track RBI policy updates and rate-sensitive stocks live.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Avinash Agarwal&#8217;s forecast of a 50-75 basis point RBI rate hike this cycle sits at the more aggressive end of a widening range of tightening estimates, underscoring genuine disagreement on magnitude even as consensus builds around the direction of policy. Investors in rate-sensitive sectors should track upcoming inflation data and RBI commentary closely, and should consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before repositioning portfolios around rate expectations.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FAQs\"><\/span><strong>FAQs<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_did_Avinash_Agarwal_say_about_the_RBI_repo_rate\"><\/span><strong>What did Avinash Agarwal say about the RBI repo rate?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life said the RBI may hike the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_does_this_forecast_compare_with_other_RBI_rate_hike_estimates\"><\/span><strong>How does this forecast compare with other RBI rate hike estimates?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> It sits at the more aggressive end of the spectrum, above a more conservative single 25 basis point estimate from some rating agencies, though broadly in line with other forecasts projecting two hikes.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Who_is_Avinash_Agarwal\"><\/span><strong>Who is Avinash Agarwal?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Avinash Agarwal is associated with Bandhan Life and shared this view in Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_factors_would_justify_a_50-75_basis_point_rate_hike\"><\/span><strong>What factors would justify a 50-75 basis point rate hike?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Persistently elevated inflation, sustained currency pressure, and continued strength in domestic demand could together justify a more decisive tightening response from the RBI.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_sectors_are_most_exposed_to_a_more_aggressive_RBI_rate_hike\"><\/span><strong>Which sectors are most exposed to a more aggressive RBI rate hike?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Real estate, auto financing and banking net interest margins are among the sectors most exposed to a more aggressive tightening cycle.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_there_consensus_on_the_exact_size_of_the_expected_RBI_rate_hike\"><\/span><strong>Is there consensus on the exact size of the expected RBI rate hike?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> No. Estimates currently range from 25 basis points to as much as 75 basis points, though there is broader agreement that the RBI&#8217;s extended policy pause is ending.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What did Avinash Agarwal say about the RBI repo rate?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life said the RBI may hike the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How does this forecast compare with other RBI rate hike estimates?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"It sits at the more aggressive end of the spectrum, above a more conservative single 25 basis point estimate from some rating agencies, though broadly in line with other forecasts projecting two hikes.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Who is Avinash Agarwal?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Avinash Agarwal is associated with Bandhan Life and shared this view in Moneycontrol's Daily Voice column.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What factors would justify a 50-75 basis point rate hike?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Persistently elevated inflation, sustained currency pressure, and continued strength in domestic demand could together justify a more decisive tightening response from the RBI.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Which sectors are most exposed to a more aggressive RBI rate hike?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Real estate, auto financing and banking net interest margins are among the sectors most exposed to a more aggressive tightening cycle.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Is there consensus on the exact size of the expected RBI rate hike?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"No. Estimates currently range from 25 basis points to as much as 75 basis points, though there is broader agreement that the RBI's extended policy pause is ending.\"}}]}<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bandhan Life&#8217;s Avinash Agarwal expects the RBI to hike the policy repo rate by 50-75 basis points this cycle, one of the more aggressive tightening forecasts so far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":262620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[842],"tags":[6705,6213],"class_list":["post-262625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bandhan-life","tag-rbi-repo-rate"],"metadata":{"rank_math_internal_links_processed":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["262620"],"rank_math_title":["RBI Repo Rate Hike View: Bandhan Life's Avinash Agarwal"],"rank_math_description":["Bandhan Life's Avinash Agarwal expects the RBI to hike the policy repo rate by 50-75 basis points this cycle, one of the more aggressive tightening forecasts so far."],"rank_math_focus_keyword":["RBI repo rate hike"],"rank_math_robots":["a:2:{i:0;s:7:\"noindex\";i:1;s:8:\"nofollow\";}"]},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/rbi-may-hike-the-repo-rate-by-50-75-bps-this-cycle-says-bandhan-life-s-avinash.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=262625"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":262627,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/262625\/revisions\/262627"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/262620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=262625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=262625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=262625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}