{"id":258617,"date":"2026-09-21T10:37:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T05:07:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=258617"},"modified":"2026-09-21T10:37:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T05:07:19","slug":"rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI May Hike the Repo Rate Twice by December as Inflation Stays Sticky, Says Templeton&#8217;s Kiran Sebastian"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Kiran Sebastian, Templeton: CPI at 4.8%, could reach 5.5%, staying above 5% for quarters. RBI may hike repo rate twice by December.<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">The Reserve Bank of India may hike the repo rate twice by December as inflation stays sticky, according to Kiran Sebastian of Franklin Templeton, in comments carried in Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column. Inflation is likely to remain elevated for the rest of FY27, with CPI currently at 4.8 percent and several forecasts indicating it could move toward 5.5 percent and stay above 5 percent for the next few quarters. Sebastian&#8217;s view adds another voice to a growing chorus of economists and fund managers now expecting the RBI&#8217;s extended pause on rates to give way to tightening in the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of India may raise the repo rate twice by December as inflation remains stubbornly elevated, according to Kiran Sebastian of Franklin Templeton, speaking to Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<p>Sebastian&#8217;s inflation outlook is specific: CPI currently stands at 4.8 percent, with several forecasts pointing to a move toward 5.5 percent and inflation staying above 5 percent for the next few quarters, a trajectory he argues strengthens the case for the RBI to act rather than continue its extended policy pause.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\"><strong>Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#Why_Sebastian_Expects_Two_Rate_Hikes_Rather_Than_One\" title=\"Why Sebastian Expects Two Rate Hikes Rather Than One\">Why Sebastian Expects Two Rate Hikes Rather Than One<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#The_Inflation_Trajectory_Behind_This_View\" title=\"The Inflation Trajectory Behind This View\">The Inflation Trajectory Behind This View<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#How_This_View_Fits_the_Broader_RBI_Rate_Hike_Debate\" title=\"How This View Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate\">How This View Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#FAQs\" title=\"FAQs\">FAQs<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#What_did_Kiran_Sebastian_say_about_the_RBI_repo_rate\" title=\"What did Kiran Sebastian say about the RBI repo rate?\">What did Kiran Sebastian say about the RBI repo rate?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#What_is_the_current_level_of_CPI_inflation_according_to_this_view\" title=\"What is the current level of CPI inflation according to this view?\">What is the current level of CPI inflation according to this view?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#Why_does_Sebastian_expect_two_rate_hikes_rather_than_one\" title=\"Why does Sebastian expect two rate hikes rather than one?\">Why does Sebastian expect two rate hikes rather than one?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#Who_is_Kiran_Sebastian\" title=\"Who is Kiran Sebastian?\">Who is Kiran Sebastian?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#Is_there_broad_agreement_on_the_size_of_the_expected_RBI_rate_hikes\" title=\"Is there broad agreement on the size of the expected RBI rate hikes?\">Is there broad agreement on the size of the expected RBI rate hikes?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-templeton-kiran-sebastian-inflation-sticky\/#What_is_driving_the_broader_consensus_toward_RBI_rate_hikes\" title=\"What is driving the broader consensus toward RBI rate hikes?\">What is driving the broader consensus toward RBI rate hikes?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Sebastian_Expects_Two_Rate_Hikes_Rather_Than_One\"><\/span><strong>Why Sebastian Expects Two Rate Hikes Rather Than One<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Sebastian&#8217;s call for two hikes by December, rather than a single larger move, reflects a calibrated approach to tightening, allowing the RBI to assess the impact of an initial move before deciding on a second, a sequencing pattern several other economists have also floated for the central bank&#8217;s upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meetings.<\/p>\n<p>This two-step approach contrasts with more aggressive single-move forecasts from some other brokerages, illustrating that while there is now broad consensus that the RBI&#8217;s rate pause is ending, meaningful disagreement remains on the specific size and pacing of the tightening that follows.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\"><strong>Track Rate-Sensitive Stocks on the Univest Screener<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Inflation_Trajectory_Behind_This_View\"><\/span><strong>The Inflation Trajectory Behind This View<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Sebastian&#8217;s specific inflation figures, CPI currently at 4.8 percent with forecasts pointing toward 5.5 percent, describe a trajectory that would take inflation meaningfully above the RBI&#8217;s comfort zone if it plays out as projected, since price pressures staying above 5 percent for several quarters would represent a sustained breach rather than a brief, transient spike.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/nifty-it-stocks-fall-tcs-hcl-infosys-coforge-ai-rally-wall-street\">Nifty IT Stocks Slide as TCS Falls 3%, HCL Tech, Infosys and Coforge Down 2% Each<\/a><\/p>\n<p>This kind of durable, rather than temporary, inflation overshoot is typically what prompts central banks to move from a wait-and-watch stance to active tightening, since a genuinely temporary spike driven by one or two volatile categories would more often be looked through rather than acted upon.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_This_View_Fits_the_Broader_RBI_Rate_Hike_Debate\"><\/span><strong>How This View Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Sebastian&#8217;s comments add to an increasingly crowded field of economists and fund managers now projecting an RBI repo rate hike in the coming months, following similar calls flagging risks from elevated crude oil prices, a broadening inflation basket, and rupee pressure tied to global monetary policy shifts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/10-stocks-to-buy-today-21-september-shortlist\">10 Stocks to Buy Today: A Shortlist Built Around Last Week&#8217;s Confirmed Catalysts<\/a><\/p>\n<p>With multiple, independently arrived-at forecasts now converging on the same broad conclusion, even as the specific size and timing estimates vary, investors should treat the direction of RBI policy, toward tightening rather than continued easing, as the more settled part of this debate, with the pace and magnitude remaining the open questions heading into the next Monetary Policy Committee meetings.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track RBI policy updates and rate-sensitive stocks live.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Kiran Sebastian&#8217;s view that the RBI could hike the repo rate twice by December, driven by inflation staying above 5 percent for several quarters, adds a specific, data-grounded forecast to a broader chorus of economists now expecting tightening ahead. Investors should track upcoming CPI prints and Monetary Policy Committee commentary for confirmation, and should consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before repositioning portfolios around rate expectations.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FAQs\"><\/span><strong>FAQs<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_did_Kiran_Sebastian_say_about_the_RBI_repo_rate\"><\/span><strong>What did Kiran Sebastian say about the RBI repo rate?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Kiran Sebastian of Franklin Templeton said the RBI may hike the repo rate twice by December as inflation stays sticky.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_current_level_of_CPI_inflation_according_to_this_view\"><\/span><strong>What is the current level of CPI inflation according to this view?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> CPI currently stands at 4.8 percent, with forecasts indicating it could move toward 5.5 percent and stay above 5 percent for the next few quarters.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_does_Sebastian_expect_two_rate_hikes_rather_than_one\"><\/span><strong>Why does Sebastian expect two rate hikes rather than one?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> A two-step, calibrated approach allows the RBI to assess the impact of an initial hike before deciding on a second, a sequencing several other economists have also floated.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Who_is_Kiran_Sebastian\"><\/span><strong>Who is Kiran Sebastian?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Kiran Sebastian is associated with Franklin Templeton and shared this view in Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_there_broad_agreement_on_the_size_of_the_expected_RBI_rate_hikes\"><\/span><strong>Is there broad agreement on the size of the expected RBI rate hikes?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> No. While there is now broad consensus that the RBI&#8217;s rate pause is ending, forecasts vary on the specific size and pacing of the tightening that follows.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_driving_the_broader_consensus_toward_RBI_rate_hikes\"><\/span><strong>What is driving the broader consensus toward RBI rate hikes?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Elevated crude oil prices, a broadening inflation basket, and rupee pressure tied to global monetary policy shifts have all been cited by various economists as factors supporting the case for tightening.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What did Kiran Sebastian say about the RBI repo 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5%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":258616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[842],"tags":[5422,6213],"class_list":["post-258617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-inflation","tag-rbi-repo-rate"],"metadata":{"rank_math_internal_links_processed":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["258616"],"rank_math_title":["RBI Repo Rate Hike View: Templeton's Kiran Sebastian"],"rank_math_description":["Templeton's Kiran Sebastian expects the RBI to hike the repo rate twice by December as inflation, currently at 4.8%, could move toward 5.5% and stay above 5%."],"rank_math_focus_keyword":["RBI repo rate 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