{"id":251150,"date":"2026-09-17T10:04:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T04:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=251150"},"modified":"2026-09-17T10:04:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T04:34:07","slug":"rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Voice: A Hawkish Fed Could Force the RBI&#8217;s Hand on a Repo Rate Hike, Says Spark Capital&#8217;s CIO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #1F4E79;background:#EBF3FB;padding:10px 16px;font-style:italic;\"><em>Deepan Kapadia, CIO, Spark Capital PWM: if crude stays above $100\/barrel for months and rupee stays under pressure, a 25 bps RBI repo rate hike becomes a realistic possibility.<\/em><\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#F0F9FF;border-left:4px solid #2E7D32;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 18px;margin:18px 0;\">\n<p style=\"margin:0;color:#1F4E79;font-size:14px;\"><strong>Quick Answer<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:8px 0 0;\">A hawkish Federal Reserve stance could put fresh pressure on the rupee and foreign portfolio flows into India, according to Deepan Kapadia, Chief Investment Officer at Spark Capital PWM, in comments to Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column. Kapadia said that if crude oil prices remain above 100 dollars a barrel for several months and the rupee stays under sustained pressure, a 25 basis point RBI repo rate hike becomes a realistic possibility for the central bank. His comments come days after the US Federal Reserve delivered its own rate hike, adding a fresh layer of complexity to the RBI&#8217;s policy calculus heading into its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>A hawkish Federal Reserve could pressure the rupee and foreign portfolio flows into Indian markets, cautioned Deepan Kapadia, Chief Investment Officer at Spark Capital PWM, in the latest edition of Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<p>Kapadia&#8217;s specific formulation is conditional: if crude oil prices remain above 100 dollars a barrel for several months and the rupee stays under pressure, a 25 basis point RBI repo rate hike becomes, in his words, a realistic possibility for the central bank to consider.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&#038;utm_medium=rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\"><strong>Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#Why_a_Hawkish_Fed_Complicates_the_RBIs_Calculus\" title=\"Why a Hawkish Fed Complicates the RBI&#8217;s Calculus\">Why a Hawkish Fed Complicates the RBI&#8217;s Calculus<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#The_Conditions_That_Would_Trigger_an_RBI_Repo_Rate_Hike\" title=\"The Conditions That Would Trigger an RBI Repo Rate Hike\">The Conditions That Would Trigger an RBI Repo Rate Hike<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#How_This_Fits_the_Broader_RBI_Rate_Hike_Debate\" title=\"How This Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate\">How This Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#FAQs\" title=\"FAQs\">FAQs<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#What_did_Spark_Capital_PWMs_CIO_say_about_an_RBI_repo_rate_hike\" title=\"What did Spark Capital PWM&#8217;s CIO say about an RBI repo rate hike?\">What did Spark Capital PWM&#8217;s CIO say about an RBI repo rate hike?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#How_does_a_hawkish_Fed_affect_the_RBIs_rate_decisions\" title=\"How does a hawkish Fed affect the RBI&#8217;s rate decisions?\">How does a hawkish Fed affect the RBI&#8217;s rate decisions?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#What_two_conditions_would_need_to_hold_for_this_RBI_repo_rate_hike_view_to_play_out\" title=\"What two conditions would need to hold for this RBI repo rate hike view to play out?\">What two conditions would need to hold for this RBI repo rate hike view to play out?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#Is_a_25_bps_hike_the_only_estimate_for_the_RBIs_next_move\" title=\"Is a 25 bps hike the only estimate for the RBI&#8217;s next move?\">Is a 25 bps hike the only estimate for the RBI&#8217;s next move?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#Who_is_Deepan_Kapadia\" title=\"Who is Deepan Kapadia?\">Who is Deepan Kapadia?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-repo-rate-hike-outlook-spark-capital-pwm-hawkish-fed\/#Do_most_market_participants_expect_the_RBI_to_hold_rates_steady\" title=\"Do most market participants expect the RBI to hold rates steady?\">Do most market participants expect the RBI to hold rates steady?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_a_Hawkish_Fed_Complicates_the_RBIs_Calculus\"><\/span><strong>Why a Hawkish Fed Complicates the RBI&#8217;s Calculus<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>When the US Federal Reserve turns hawkish, either by raising rates or signalling further tightening ahead, it tends to widen the interest rate differential in favour of dollar assets, which can pull foreign portfolio flows away from emerging markets like India and put downward pressure on the rupee.<\/p>\n<p>A weaker rupee, in turn, makes imported goods, most notably crude oil, more expensive in rupee terms, adding to domestic inflation even if global commodity prices themselves are not rising. This is the specific transmission channel Kapadia is flagging: a hawkish Fed, sustained crude above 100 dollars, and rupee weakness compounding into a case for RBI tightening.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\"><strong>Track Rate-Sensitive Stocks on the Univest Screener<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Conditions_That_Would_Trigger_an_RBI_Repo_Rate_Hike\"><\/span><strong>The Conditions That Would Trigger an RBI Repo Rate Hike<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Kapadia&#8217;s view is explicitly conditional rather than a firm prediction: both crude oil staying elevated for an extended period and the rupee remaining under sustained pressure would need to hold true simultaneously for a 25 basis point move to become the realistic base case he describes.<\/p>\n<p>This framing is useful for investors because it identifies two concrete, trackable variables, crude oil prices and the rupee&#8217;s exchange rate, rather than a vague macro narrative, giving markets specific data points to watch ahead of the RBI&#8217;s next policy meeting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/steel-sector-stocks-to-buy-tata-steel-jsw-steel-jindal-steel-nomura\">Steel Stocks Rally as Nomura Backs Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel Buy Calls Amid 4-Year High Prices<\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_This_Fits_the_Broader_RBI_Rate_Hike_Debate\"><\/span><strong>How This Fits the Broader RBI Rate Hike Debate<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Kapadia&#8217;s 25 basis point view sits at the more conservative end of the range of estimates currently circulating among economists and brokerages for the RBI&#8217;s next move, with some other desks flagging a larger cumulative hike spread across multiple meetings.<\/p>\n<p>The common thread across these varying estimates is that most market participants now agree the RBI&#8217;s extended pause is likely ending, with the debate increasingly centred on the size and timing of the move rather than whether one happens at all.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-style:italic;color:#000000;margin:14px 0;\">Also read &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs\/rbi-rate-hike-nomura-50-bps-q4-inflation\">RBI Rate Hike Alert: Nomura Sees 50 bps Increase in Q4 as Inflation Pressure Builds<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&#038;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track RBI policy updates and rate-sensitive stocks live.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Spark Capital PWM&#8217;s Deepan Kapadia frames the case for an RBI repo rate hike around two specific, trackable conditions: sustained elevated crude oil prices and continued rupee pressure following a hawkish Fed move. Investors should monitor both variables closely ahead of the RBI&#8217;s next policy meeting, and should consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before repositioning portfolios around rate expectations.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background:#CC0000;border-radius:8px;padding:16px 20px;margin:24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color:#FFFFFF;font-size:13px;line-height:1.7;margin:0;\"><strong style=\"color:#FFFFFF;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FAQs\"><\/span><strong>FAQs<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_did_Spark_Capital_PWMs_CIO_say_about_an_RBI_repo_rate_hike\"><\/span><strong>What did Spark Capital PWM&#8217;s CIO say about an RBI repo rate hike?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Deepan Kapadia said that if crude oil remains above 100 dollars a barrel for several months and the rupee stays under pressure, a 25 basis point RBI repo rate hike becomes a realistic possibility.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_does_a_hawkish_Fed_affect_the_RBIs_rate_decisions\"><\/span><strong>How does a hawkish Fed affect the RBI&#8217;s rate decisions?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> A hawkish Fed can widen the interest rate differential in favour of dollar assets, pulling foreign portfolio flows away from India and pressuring the rupee, which in turn can add to imported inflation.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_two_conditions_would_need_to_hold_for_this_RBI_repo_rate_hike_view_to_play_out\"><\/span><strong>What two conditions would need to hold for this RBI repo rate hike view to play out?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Crude oil prices would need to stay above 100 dollars a barrel for several months, and the rupee would need to remain under sustained pressure, according to Kapadia&#8217;s comments.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_a_25_bps_hike_the_only_estimate_for_the_RBIs_next_move\"><\/span><strong>Is a 25 bps hike the only estimate for the RBI&#8217;s next move?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> No. Other economists and brokerages have flagged a range of estimates, with some projecting a larger cumulative hike spread across multiple policy meetings.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Who_is_Deepan_Kapadia\"><\/span><strong>Who is Deepan Kapadia?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Deepan Kapadia is the Chief Investment Officer at Spark Capital PWM, who shared his view in Moneycontrol&#8217;s Daily Voice column.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Do_most_market_participants_expect_the_RBI_to_hold_rates_steady\"><\/span><strong>Do most market participants expect the RBI to hold rates steady?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> No. Most market participants now expect the RBI&#8217;s extended rate pause to end, with the debate centred on the size and timing of the move rather than whether it happens.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script 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