{"id":249588,"date":"2026-09-16T14:45:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:15:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=249588"},"modified":"2026-09-16T14:45:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:15:07","slug":"rbi-rate-hike-nomura-50-bps-q4-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/rbi-rate-hike-nomura-50-bps-q4-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI Rate Hike Alert: Nomura Sees 50 bps Increase in Q4 as Inflation Pressure Builds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nomura expects a cumulative 50 bps RBI rate hike in Q4 FY27, calling it recalibration, not a broader tightening cycle. Retail inflation seen near 6.1% in Q3, above RBI’s tolerance band.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of India to deliver a cumulative 50 basis point RBI rate hike in the fourth quarter of FY27, framing it as a recalibration rather than the start of a fresh tightening cycle. The brokerage’s view follows signs of rising inflation, with retail price pressures expected to peak close to 6.1 percent in the third quarter, above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit. Other economists, including those at SBI Research, expect a more staggered path of two 25 basis point hikes across the October and December policy meetings. The RBI rate hike debate now centres on timing and pace rather than direction, with most desks agreeing the easing cycle is behind us for now.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Global brokerage Nomura has added to a growing chorus of voices flagging an RBI rate hike in the coming months, projecting a cumulative 50 basis point increase in the repo rate during the fourth quarter of FY27. Importantly, Nomura is careful to frame this as a recalibration of policy rather than the start of a broader, sustained tightening cycle, a distinction that matters for how markets price in the path beyond the immediate move.<\/p>\n

The view comes as retail inflation shows signs of broadening out. Recent commentary from other research desks, including SBI Research, points to consumer price inflation potentially crossing 6.5 percent in the coming months before easing back below 6 percent in early 2027, driven by a wider basket of goods and services contributing to price pressure rather than just a handful of volatile items such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n

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