{"id":134953,"date":"2026-06-30T10:17:56","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T04:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=134953"},"modified":"2026-06-30T10:17:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T04:47:58","slug":"india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/","title":{"rendered":"India Steel Earnings Outlook Stays Firm as Nomura Keeps Buy on Tata Steel and JSW Steel Despite Rebar Slump"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"meta-block\"><\/div>\n<p style=\"border-left: 4px solid #1F4E79; background: #EBF3FB; padding: 10px 16px; font-style: italic;\"><em>India steel earnings outlook stays firm. Nomura Buy on Tata Steel, target Rs 220. JSW Steel target Rs 1,340. HRC prices hold up despite rebar correction.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The India steel earnings outlook remains firm even as rebar prices correct, with brokerage Nomura maintaining its Buy rating on Tata Steel and JSW Steel in its latest sector note. The brokerage said flat steel prices, led by hot rolled coil, are holding up well, helping cushion overall profitability even as long steel products such as rebar see a pullback in realisations.<\/p>\n<p>Nomura&#8217;s view on the India steel earnings outlook is built on the idea that domestic price momentum, rather than global factors such as China, should largely determine the earnings potential of major Indian steel players over the coming quarters.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/user\/log-in?utm_source=blogs&amp;utm_medium=india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-jsw\"><strong>Click Here &#8211; Get Free Investment Predictions<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#What_Is_Driving_the_India_Steel_Earnings_Outlook_Despite_the_Rebar_Slump\" title=\"What Is Driving the India Steel Earnings Outlook Despite the Rebar Slump\">What Is Driving the India Steel Earnings Outlook Despite the Rebar Slump<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Why_Nomura_Is_Bullish_on_Tata_Steel_and_JSW_Steel\" title=\"Why Nomura Is Bullish on Tata Steel and JSW Steel\">Why Nomura Is Bullish on Tata Steel and JSW Steel<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#What_Should_Investors_Watch_in_the_India_Steel_Earnings_Outlook\" title=\"What Should Investors Watch in the India Steel Earnings Outlook\">What Should Investors Watch in the India Steel Earnings Outlook<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions\" title=\"Frequently Asked Questions\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#What_is_Nomuras_view_on_the_India_steel_earnings_outlook\" title=\"What is Nomura&#8217;s view on the India steel earnings outlook?\">What is Nomura&#8217;s view on the India steel earnings outlook?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#What_is_Nomuras_target_price_for_Tata_Steel\" title=\"What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for Tata Steel?\">What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for Tata Steel?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#What_is_Nomuras_target_price_for_JSW_Steel\" title=\"What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for JSW Steel?\">What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for JSW Steel?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Why_has_the_rebar_price_slump_not_hurt_the_India_steel_earnings_outlook\" title=\"Why has the rebar price slump not hurt the India steel earnings outlook?\">Why has the rebar price slump not hurt the India steel earnings outlook?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Which_other_steel_stocks_does_Nomura_rate_Buy\" title=\"Which other steel stocks does Nomura rate Buy?\">Which other steel stocks does Nomura rate Buy?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#How_is_Indias_steel_demand_trending_this_year\" title=\"How is India&#8217;s steel demand trending this year?\">How is India&#8217;s steel demand trending this year?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-steel-earnings-outlook-tata-steel-jsw-steel\/#Should_investors_buy_steel_stocks_based_on_this_outlook\" title=\"Should investors buy steel stocks based on this outlook?\">Should investors buy steel stocks based on this outlook?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_Driving_the_India_Steel_Earnings_Outlook_Despite_the_Rebar_Slump\"><\/span><strong>What Is Driving the India Steel Earnings Outlook Despite the Rebar Slump<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Domestic hot rolled coil prices have firmed up meaningfully through the year, supported by the government&#8217;s three year extension of safeguard duties aimed at curbing low priced imports. Nomura noted that the domestic flat to long spread has narrowed and turned positive, with HRC prices continuing to outperform the recent correction in rebar prices, a key reason the India steel earnings outlook has held steady even as construction linked long products soften.<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s HRC spot margin has remained well above the median level seen over the past two years, even after a modest sequential decline, according to Nomura. The brokerage believes large, blast furnace based players are better positioned than smaller, gas based producers, since the bigger players can more easily substitute alternate fuel sources and absorb input cost volatility.<\/p>\n<p>The table below summarises Nomura&#8217;s key calls underpinning its India steel earnings outlook.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"6\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background: #1F3864; color: #ffffff;\">\n<th>Company<\/th>\n<th>Nomura Rating<\/th>\n<th>Target Price<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tata Steel<\/td>\n<td>Buy<\/td>\n<td>Rs 220<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>JSW Steel<\/td>\n<td>Buy<\/td>\n<td>Rs 1,340<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jindal Steel<\/td>\n<td>Buy<\/td>\n<td>Rs 1,280<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Lloyds Metals and Energy<\/td>\n<td>Buy<\/td>\n<td>Rs 1,600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Nomura_Is_Bullish_on_Tata_Steel_and_JSW_Steel\"><\/span><strong>Why Nomura Is Bullish on Tata Steel and JSW Steel<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/stocks\/tatasteel\/tata-steel-ltd-share-price-today\">Tata Steel<\/a> was trading around Rs 188 on Tuesday, with Nomura&#8217;s target of Rs 220 implying meaningful upside if the India steel earnings outlook continues to hold up as domestic volumes expand. The brokerage expects steady year on year volume growth in the company&#8217;s India operations, even as its European business continues to face a tougher demand environment. Use the Univest Screener to compare Tata Steel&#8217;s valuation against domestic and global steel peers.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/stocks\/jswsteel\/jsw-steel-ltd-share-price-today\">JSW Steel<\/a> was trading around Rs 1,236, leaving room toward Nomura&#8217;s target of Rs 1,340. The brokerage expects consolidated volume growth to be driven in part by the company&#8217;s joint ventures, even as it continues working through a blast furnace shutdown at its Vijayanagar plant. Despite this near term operational headwind, Nomura&#8217;s constructive India steel earnings outlook keeps JSW Steel among its preferred large cap picks in the sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 24px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/univest.in\/screeners\"><strong>Check Tata Steel and JSW Steel Fundamentals on Univest<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Should_Investors_Watch_in_the_India_Steel_Earnings_Outlook\"><\/span><strong>What Should Investors Watch in the India Steel Earnings Outlook<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Investors tracking the India steel earnings outlook should watch monthly crude steel production and finished steel consumption data, both of which have continued to expand steadily through the year, supported by sustained government infrastructure spending and steady demand from construction, railways and manufacturing. Coking coal prices and the trajectory of safeguard duty enforcement are also likely to remain key swing factors for sector margins.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 24px;\"><em>Download the <a href=\"http:\/\/apps.apple.com\/in\/app\/univest-stocks-investment\/id6443753518\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest iOS App<\/a> or <a href=\"http:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.univest.capp&amp;hl=en_IN\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Univest Android App<\/a> to track live Tata Steel, JSW Steel prices and sector updates.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The India steel earnings outlook remains constructive despite a correction in rebar prices, with Nomura&#8217;s continued Buy ratings on Tata Steel and JSW Steel reflecting confidence that domestic price strength and steady volume growth can offset global headwinds. With targets implying double digit upside on both names, the sector remains one to watch as the next round of quarterly earnings approaches. These targets are analyst estimates and not guaranteed returns, so investors should consult a SEBI registered advisor before making any investment decision.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background: #CC0000; border-radius: 8px; padding: 16px 20px; margin: 24px 0;\">\n<p style=\"color: #ffffff; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.7; margin: 0;\"><strong style=\"color: #ffffff;\">Disclaimer:<\/strong> Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions\"><\/span><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Nomuras_view_on_the_India_steel_earnings_outlook\"><\/span><strong>What is Nomura&#8217;s view on the India steel earnings outlook?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Nomura believes the India steel earnings outlook remains firm, underpinned by strong domestic hot rolled coil prices, steady volume growth and government infrastructure spending, even as rebar prices have corrected recently.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Nomuras_target_price_for_Tata_Steel\"><\/span><strong>What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for Tata Steel?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Nomura has a Buy rating on Tata Steel with a target price of around Rs 220, citing resilient India operations even as the company&#8217;s European business faces a tougher environment.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_Nomuras_target_price_for_JSW_Steel\"><\/span><strong>What is Nomura&#8217;s target price for JSW Steel?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Nomura has a Buy rating on JSW Steel with a target price of around Rs 1,340, supported by expected consolidated volume growth despite a blast furnace shutdown at its Vijayanagar plant.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_has_the_rebar_price_slump_not_hurt_the_India_steel_earnings_outlook\"><\/span><strong>Why has the rebar price slump not hurt the India steel earnings outlook?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Hot rolled coil prices have held up well even as rebar prices correct, helped by safeguard duties on imports. Since large players have a diversified product mix, the overall India steel earnings outlook has stayed resilient.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_other_steel_stocks_does_Nomura_rate_Buy\"><\/span><strong>Which other steel stocks does Nomura rate Buy?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Apart from Tata Steel and JSW Steel, Nomura also has Buy ratings on Jindal Steel, with a target of Rs 1,280, and Lloyds Metals and Energy, with a target of Rs 1,600.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_is_Indias_steel_demand_trending_this_year\"><\/span><strong>How is India&#8217;s steel demand trending this year?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> India&#8217;s finished steel consumption and crude steel production have both continued to expand steadily through the year, supported by government infrastructure spending and steady demand from construction, railways and manufacturing.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Should_investors_buy_steel_stocks_based_on_this_outlook\"><\/span><strong>Should investors buy steel stocks based on this outlook?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Ans.<\/strong> Nomura&#8217;s targets reflect the brokerage&#8217;s own estimates and are not guaranteed returns. This article does not constitute investment advice, and investors should consult a SEBI registered advisor before making decisions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"faq-schema\"><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is Nomura's view on the India steel earnings outlook?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Nomura believes the India steel earnings outlook remains firm, underpinned by strong domestic hot rolled coil prices, steady volume growth and government infrastructure spending, even as rebar prices have corrected recently.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is Nomura's target price for Tata Steel?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Nomura has a Buy rating on Tata Steel with a target price of around Rs 220, citing resilient India operations even as the company's European business faces a tougher environment.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is Nomura's target price for JSW Steel?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Nomura has a Buy rating on JSW Steel with a target price of around Rs 1,340, supported by expected consolidated volume growth despite a blast furnace shutdown at its Vijayanagar plant.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why has the rebar price slump not hurt the India steel earnings outlook?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Hot rolled coil prices have held up well even as rebar prices correct, helped by safeguard duties on imports. Since large players have a diversified product mix, the overall India steel earnings outlook has stayed resilient.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Which other steel stocks does Nomura rate Buy?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Apart from Tata Steel and JSW Steel, Nomura also has Buy ratings on Jindal Steel, with a target of Rs 1,280, and Lloyds Metals and Energy, with a target of Rs 1,600.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How is India's steel demand trending this year?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"India's finished steel consumption and crude steel production have both continued to expand steadily through the year, supported by government infrastructure spending and steady demand from construction, railways and manufacturing.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Should investors buy steel stocks based on this outlook?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Nomura's targets reflect the brokerage's own estimates and are not guaranteed returns. This article does not constitute investment advice, and investors should consult a SEBI registered advisor before making decisions.\"}}]}<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India steel earnings outlook stays firm despite a rebar price slump as Nomura keeps Buy on Tata Steel and JSW Steel. 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