{"id":109861,"date":"2026-06-08T14:21:21","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T08:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/?p=109861"},"modified":"2026-06-08T14:21:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T08:51:23","slug":"india-inflation-may-2026-reuters-poll-cpi-4-percent-food-fuel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/univest.in\/blogs-2\/india-inflation-may-2026-reuters-poll-cpi-4-percent-food-fuel\/","title":{"rendered":"India CPI Inflation Likely Rose to 4% in May 2026 as Food Prices Jump and Fuel Costs Surge on US-Iran War: Reuters Poll Ahead of June 12 Data Release"},"content":{"rendered":"
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India inflation May 2026 Reuters poll: ~4% forecast (April actual 3.48%). Food 4.20%+. Brent $97. LPG elevated. Rupee Rs 95.36. CPI data release June 12. RBI target 4%.<\/em><\/p>\n

India inflation is likely to have risen to approximately 4% in May 2026, according to a Reuters poll of economists, representing a significant jump from the 3.48% recorded in April 2026 and aligning with the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term inflation target for the first time in the current cycle. The rise in India inflation for May is being driven by a combination of elevated food prices, particularly for seasonal vegetables, and a sharp increase in fuel costs stemming from Brent crude oil crossing $97 per barrel amid the ongoing US-Iran war and the Iran-Israel escalation on June 8, 2026. The official May 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on June 12, 2026.<\/p>\n

A May CPI reading at or near 4% would mark a significant inflection in India’s inflation trajectory. Following the introduction of a revised CPI series in January 2026 (which updated commodity weightages based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey), headline inflation had remained well below 4%: February 2026 delivered the first reading under the new series, March came in at 3.40%, and April surprised on the downside at 3.48% against a consensus forecast of 3.8%. A May print at 4% would bring India inflation back precisely to the RBI’s stated medium-term target, raising questions about whether the central bank can sustain its rate-cutting cycle in H2 FY27.<\/p>\n

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Month<\/th>\nIndia Inflation (CPI)<\/th>\nFood Inflation<\/th>\nNote<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
February 2026<\/td>\nFirst new series reading<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\nRevised CPI series launched<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
March 2026<\/td>\n3.40%<\/td>\n3.87%<\/td>\nBelow consensus 3.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
April 2026<\/td>\n3.48% (Actual)<\/td>\n4.20%<\/td>\nBelow consensus 3.80%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
May 2026<\/td>\n~4.0% (Reuters Poll Est.)<\/td>\n~4.5%+ est.<\/td>\nData due June 12, 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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