RBI inflation forecast 2026: FY27 CPI raised 50bps to 5.1% from 4.6% (April 2026 estimate) at June 5 MPC meeting. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the revised RBI inflation forecast amid West Asia war-driven energy inflation. Key drivers: Brent crude $95/barrel, WPI 8.3%, petrol Rs 111.21/L (after 4 May 2026 hikes), rupee Rs 95.80/USD. Repo rate still HELD at 5.25%, neutral stance — 5.1% within 2-6% tolerance band. Cumulative FY27 inflation forecast revision since Feb 2026: ~+90-110bps total. August 2026 MPC hike probability rises: conditions = crude above $100, CPI above 5.5%, WPI broadening. Market impact: Nifty retreated from day high 23,516 to 23,362 partly on hawkish inflation signal. Sector impact: Commodities/energy outperform; real estate, NBFCs, FMCG face headwinds. Full analysis on Univest.