Bond yields June 5, 2026: Indian 10-year G-Sec yield set to fall 15-30bps on dual catalyst. (1) G-Sec FII tax exemption ordinance: removes capital gains tax on govt bond investments for FIIs, increases overseas demand, pushes bond yields down. (2) RBI holds repo at 5.25%, neutral stance: removes near-term rate hike risk to bond yields. Rupee +50 paise to Rs 95.30/USD on FII bond inflow expectations. Bank Nifty day high 54,732.20. PSU banks up 1-2% on G-Sec portfolio MTM gains. JP Morgan GBI-EM (India ~10% weight) + Bloomberg Global Aggregate = passive + active FII flows. India govt bond market Rs 100+ lakh crore: 25bps fall = Rs 1.5-2L Cr portfolio value creation. Corporate bond yields also fall: lower borrowing costs for Indian companies. Gilt and bond mutual funds: NAV appreciation. Key risk: August 2026 MPC — if crude above $100 and CPI above 5.5%, rate hike possible. Ideal scenario: US-Iran ceasefire brings crude below $80 — bond yields could fall 40-60bps. Full analysis on Univest.