Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 26 May 2026: MCX Crashes 5 Per Cent to Rs 8,710 on Iran Deal Weekend Progress
- May 25, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: News
Crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, 26 May: MCX Rs 8,710 (-5% on 25 May). Iran deal weekend progress. Hormuz closed. US crude reopens.
The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, on 26 May 2026, is bearish to cautious recovery, with MCX crude oil crashing 5 per cent to Rs 8,710 per barrel at the 25 May morning open, the largest single-session decline for crude in May 2026, driven by significant Iran-US peace deal progress over the Memorial Day weekend. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow marks a major structural shift: from the Rs 10,000-plus levels of April 2026, when the Strait of Hormuz closure and Iran strike threat pushed crude to multi-year highs, to Rs 8,710, representing a more than 13 per cent decline as the market prices in a higher probability of a peace deal.
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Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is the most important macro variable for the entire Indian market on 26 May: lower crude directly reduces inflation, strengthens the Rupee, improves India’s current account and directly benefits IOC, BPCL, HPCL and aviation stocks. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, adds that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow’s key uncertainty is whether the Hormuz structural supply disruption will ease: no formal deal has been signed, and the Strait remains largely closed, maintaining a supply floor even as peace talks progress.
Crude Oil Market Data: 25 May 2026
| Metric | Value (25 May 2026) | Signal for Tomorrow |
| MCX Crude (09:30 AM open) | Rs 8,710/barrel (-5.00%) | Largest single-day decline in May |
| WTI Crude (22 May close) | ~$97/barrel | Starting point before the weekend crash |
| Iran Deal Status | Pakistani mediators visit Tehran; draft reviewed | High deal probability priced in |
| Hormuz Status | Largely closed (no formal deal yet) | Structural supply floor maintained |
| Nifty 50 25 May close | 24,031 (+1.31%) | India’s macro benefits from lower crude |
| US Markets 26 May | REOPENING | Fresh US crude pricing from 3 days |
| MCX Crude Support 1 | Rs 8,400/barrel | First downside if the deal is confirmed |
| MCX Crude Support 2 | Rs 7,900/barrel | Full deal scenario |
| MCX Crude Resistance 1 | Rs 9,200/barrel | Recovery ceiling if the deal stalls |
| IOC (22 May close) | Rs 138 | Primary OMC beneficiary watch |
Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Iran Scenario Analysis
Jaiswal’s crude oil price prediction for tomorrow uses a three-scenario framework based on Iran deal developments. In the base case (Pakistani mediators visit Tehran, talks progress but no formal signed deal), MCX crude consolidates between Rs 8,400 and Rs 9,200, with the 5 per cent Monday crash representing the baseline deal-probability repricing.
In the bull case for crude (deal collapses, Hormuz disruption escalates), MCX crude rebounds sharply above Rs 9,200 toward Rs 10,000 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. In the bear case for crude (formal signed deal announced on 26 May), MCX crude crashes below Rs 8,000 toward Rs 7,500 to Rs 7,900 as Iranian supply returns to global markets in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
India Market Impact: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow
- IOC, BPCL, HPCL: Strongest Beneficiaries. Every Rs 500 per barrel crude decline improves OMC quarterly PAT by an estimated Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 crore. MCX crude at Rs 8,710 versus April highs above Rs 10,000 represents a Rs 1,290 per barrel reduction, a massive OMC margin improvement in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
- IndiGo and Aviation: ATF Cost Relief. Lower crude oil reduces aviation turbine fuel procurement costs. Combined with the Maharashtra VAT cut on ATF, IndiGo faces the most favourable fuel cost environment of May 2026 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
- India Rupee: Crude Fall Strengthens Currency. India imports approximately 85 per cent of its crude requirements. Lower crude prices reduce India’s import bill, improve the current account and directly support Rupee strengthening, which further benefits Indian equities in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
Trend: Bearish; Iran Deal Progress Dominating
MCX Crude Support 1: Rs 8,400/barrel
MCX Crude Support 2: Rs 7,900/barrel
MCX Crude Resistance 1: Rs 9,200/barrel
MCX Crude Resistance 2: Rs 9,700/barrel
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Conclusion: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 26 May 2026
The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, on 26 May 2026, is bearish, with MCX crude at Rs 8,710 per barrel after a 5 per cent crash on 25 May morning on Iran deal weekend progress. No formal deal has been signed; the Hormuz closure maintains the supply floor. Base case range Rs 8,400 to Rs 9,200. IOC, BPCL and HPCL are the primary beneficiaries. US crude futures reopen on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.
FAQs
What is the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 26 May 2026?
Ans. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is bearish with MCX crude at Rs 8,710 per barrel after a 5 per cent crash on 25 May morning on Iran deal weekend progress. No formal deal has been signed and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, maintaining the supply floor. Base case range Rs 8,400 to Rs 9,200. IOC, BPCL and HPCL are the primary Indian market beneficiaries.
Why did MCX crude crash 5 per cent on 25 May 2026?
Ans. MCX crude crashed 5 per cent to Rs 8,710 per barrel on 25 May morning because Iran-US peace talks made significant progress over the Memorial Day weekend, with Pakistani mediators visiting Tehran and both sides reviewing draft proposals for a nuclear deal. The market is pricing in a higher probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening, which would add 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian supply to global markets.
What are the MCX crude oil levels for tomorrow?
Ans. MCX crude support for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is Rs 8,400 per barrel as the first downside level in the base case and Rs 7,900 in the full deal scenario. Resistance is Rs 9,200 per barrel as the recovery ceiling if talks stall and Rs 9,700 if the deal collapses entirely. The Hormuz closure, maintaining supply disruption, is the structural floor.
What happens to Indian OMC stocks if crude stays at Rs 8,710?
Ans. IOC, BPCL and HPCL are the primary beneficiaries of MCX crude at Rs 8,710 versus April highs above Rs 10,000. This Rs 1,290 per barrel reduction from recent peaks translates to a substantial quarterly PAT improvement estimated at Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 crore per Rs 500 barrel reduction at the system level. IOC closed at Rs 138 on 22 May and is the key watch stock in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
Does the Hormuz closure still affect crude despite Iran deal progress?
Ans. Yes, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed despite Iran deal progress because no formal signed agreement exists yet. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow maintains a supply floor above zero because until the Hormuz is physically reopened, Iranian crude exports remain constrained. A formal signed deal would be required to see sustained crude falls below Rs 8,000 per barrel in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
