SBI Share Price Falls 11% in Two Days After Q4 NIM Miss: What Emkay, MOFSL, Macquarie and Systematix Say Now

May 11, 2026
Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
Category: News

The SBI share price has crashed 10.69 percent over two trading sessions on 8 and 11 May 2026, marking one of the steepest two-day falls for India’s largest public sector bank in recent years. The selloff follows Q4 FY26 results that missed Street estimates on net interest margin (NIM), which contracted sharply to 2.93 percent, falling below 3 percent for the first time in recent quarters. Rising treasury losses and a spike in fresh slippages added to the disappointment.

State Bank of India reported a Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 19,684 crore, up 5.6 percent year-on-year but down 6.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, missing the profitability run-rate investors had priced in. Three leading domestic brokerages, Emkay Global, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) and Systematix Equities, have retained their Buy ratings while cutting FY27 estimates. Macquarie Capital flagged the margin decline as steeper than the Street anticipated.

Table of Contents

SBI Share Price: Two-Day Performance at a Glance

8 May 2026 (Friday): SBI share price fell 6.62%, hitting a low of Rs 1,011.30, closing at Rs 1,019.55 on BSE. Steepest single-day decline in nearly two years.
11 May 2026 (Monday): SBI share price down an additional 4.36% intraday. Two-day cumulative fall: 10.69%.
52-Week High: Rs 1,234.70
52-Week Low: Rs 755.50
Market Cap: Rs 9,40,877 crore as of 8 May 2026
PE Ratio: 11.91 times
FY26 Full Year Net Profit: Rs 80,032 crore (highest ever, up 12.9% year-on-year)

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SBI Q4 FY26 Results: What Went Wrong

NIM Slips Below 3 Percent: The Core Miss

SBI’s domestic NIM fell to 2.93 percent in Q4 FY26, down 18 basis points sequentially from 3.11 percent in Q3 FY26 and 21 basis points below the 3.14 percent recorded in Q4 FY25. Wholesale NIM came in at 2.81 percent, down 17 basis points quarter-on-quarter. This NIM compression below the 3 percent mark was the primary trigger for the SBI share price crash.

SBI Chairman C S Setty explained the decline was due to repo rate cut transmission through the EBLR (external benchmark-linked rate) loan book in Q4. He guided that domestic NIM would recover above 3 percent in FY27, assuming no further repo rate hikes from the RBI.

Strong Loan Growth but NII Missed Estimates

SBI’s loan book grew 17.2 percent year-on-year and 5.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 FY26. Deposits rose 11 percent year-on-year. Yet net interest income (NII) of Rs 44,380 crore came in 4.1 percent above last year but 1 percent below Q3 FY26, missing Street estimates that expected 6 to 10 percent year-on-year growth. The combination of strong loan volume and weak margin created a credibility gap on the SBI share price recovery narrative.

Fresh Slippages Spike Sequentially

Fresh slippages rose to Rs 5,548 crore in Q4 FY26 from Rs 4,860 crore in Q3 FY26, a sequential increase of approximately 14 percent. However, the gross NPA ratio improved to 1.49 percent from 1.57 percent in Q3 FY26 and net NPA remained flat at 0.39 percent. Provisions declined 55.4 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,870 crore. The slippage spike, concentrated in the housing loan segment linked to West Asia workers in Kerala, added a sentiment-level concern for SBI share price watchers.

Treasury Losses Hit Operating Profit

SBI’s pre-provision operating profit fell 15.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 11.45 percent year-on-year to Rs 27,704 crore in Q4 FY26. Higher treasury losses driven by hardening government securities yields during the quarter were responsible for this sharp operating decline, compounding the margin-led weakness in the SBI share price.

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What Top Brokerages Say About SBI Share Price Now

Emkay Global: Buy Retained, Estimates Cut

Emkay Global highlighted SBI’s strong credit growth of 17.2 percent year-on-year and better-than-expected asset quality as positives. The brokerage retained its Buy rating on the SBI share price while trimming FY27 NII estimates to account for the lower margin trajectory. Emkay’s view is that the NIM recovery above 3 percent guided for FY27 is achievable if the RBI holds the repo rate steady.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services: Buy, FY27 Estimates Revised Down

MOFSL noted the treasury losses and NIM miss as the two core drags on Q4 FY26 profitability and cut its FY27 NII projections. The brokerage retained its Buy rating on the SBI share price, flagging the bank’s strong loan pipeline, 13 to 15 percent credit growth guidance for FY27 and management’s commitment to delivering return on asset (RoA) above 1 percent as reasons to stay invested.

Systematix Equities: Buy, Net Profit Estimates Actually Raised

Systematix Equities cut NII projections by 3.2 percent for FY27 and 2.2 percent for FY28. However, it raised PPOP by 1.1 percent each for FY27 and FY28 and increased net profit estimates by 3.4 percent each for both years, reflecting better-than-expected asset quality. Systematix retained Buy on the SBI share price, calling the NIM miss a temporary, rate-cycle-driven event rather than a structural problem.

Macquarie Capital: Margin Decline Bigger Than Anticipated

Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research at Macquarie Capital, stated that the Street did not anticipate such a sharp margin decline in Q4 FY26. Macquarie’s tone was more cautious than domestic brokerages on the SBI share price recovery timeline, noting that if crude oil price pressures and the West Asia conflict persist for another five to six months as Chairman Setty himself warned, macro headwinds could dampen loan growth and credit quality in FY27.

SBI’s FY27 Guidance: Key Metrics to Watch for Share Price Recovery

Credit Growth Target: 13 to 15 percent year-on-year. SBI will not grow materially ahead of the broader macro environment.
NIM Recovery Guidance: Domestic NIM guided above 3 percent for FY27, up from Q4 FY26’s 2.93 percent. Assumes no RBI rate hike in FY27.
Return on Asset: RoA guided above 1 percent for FY27. Key profitability metric brokerages track for SBI share price valuation.
Credit Cost Guidance: 50 basis points maintained. Staying below this is the key asset quality variable for SBI share price.
West Asia Housing Loan Watch: Kerala-concentrated West Asia worker housing loans flagged as a monitor item. No material concern currently per management.

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SBI Share Price After Q4 FY26: Buy, Hold or Sell

The SBI share price correction of 10.69 percent in two days has made the stock cheaper relative to its 52-week high of Rs 1,234.70. At current levels near Rs 1,019 and a PE of 11.91 times, SBI trades at a meaningful discount to its recent peak.

The case for holding or adding rests on three pillars: the bank’s highest-ever full-year net profit of Rs 80,032 crore in FY26, a credible FY27 NIM recovery guidance above 3 percent and improving gross NPA at 1.49 percent. All three domestic brokerages with post-results notes retain Buy on the SBI share price.

The case for caution rests on the sharpness of the NIM decline, the slippage spike and macro headwinds from crude oil above $104 and the West Asia conflict. If these pressures persist for six months as Chairman Setty flagged, they could dampen loan growth and credit quality in FY27.

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Conclusion

The SBI share price crash of 10.69 percent over two days is sharp but not a signal of a structural breakdown in India’s largest bank. The core misses in Q4 FY26 were NIM compression to 2.93 percent, a slippage spike to Rs 5,548 crore and higher treasury losses. Emkay, MOFSL and Systematix retain Buy with revised targets. Macquarie flags the margin miss as deeper than anticipated. FY27 recovery hinges on NIM normalising above 3 percent, credit cost staying at 50 basis points and loan growth holding at 13 to 15 percent. Track the SBI share price live and get daily brokerage updates on Univest.

FAQs

Why did the SBI share price fall 11% in two days?

Ans. The SBI share price fell 10.69 percent over 8 and 11 May 2026 after Q4 FY26 results missed on NIM, which contracted to 2.93 percent below 3 percent, NII, which missed by 2 to 6 percent versus estimates, and treasury losses that hit operating profit by 15.7 percent quarter-on-quarter.

What is the current SBI share price and 52-week range?

Ans. The SBI share price is approximately Rs 1,019 after the two-day crash. The 52-week high is Rs 1,234.70 and the 52-week low is Rs 755.50. The stock is still up nearly 27 percent over the past 12 months despite the recent sell-off.

What do Emkay, MOFSL and Systematix say about SBI share price?

Ans. All three retain Buy on the SBI share price after Q4 FY26 while cutting FY27 NII estimates. Systematix even raised net profit estimates by 3.4 percent for FY27 and FY28, citing better-than-expected asset quality. Macquarie Capital sounded more cautious on the recovery timeline.

What is SBI’s FY27 NIM and loan growth guidance?

Ans. SBI has guided domestic NIM above 3 percent for FY27, recovering from Q4 FY26’s 2.93 percent. Loan growth target is 13 to 15 percent year-on-year. Return on asset is expected above 1 percent and credit cost guidance is maintained at 50 basis points.

Should investors buy SBI shares at current levels?

Ans. Three leading brokerages retain Buy on the SBI share price post Q4 FY26 results, and the two-day correction has improved entry levels. However, crude oil above $104, West Asia uncertainty and NIM recovery risk make patience essential. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting.

Disclaimer: Investment in the share market is subject to risk. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Verify all numbers before investing. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.

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Author: Ankit Jaiswal

Ankit Jaiswal is the Senior Research Analyst at Univest, leading the platform's in-house equity research desk and serving as the editorial reviewer for all research and blog content published at univest.in. With 11+ years of experience in Indian equity markets, he oversees stock recommendations, earnings analysis, sector coverage, and ensures every published article meets SEBI Research Analyst Regulations. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com) from St. Xavier's College, Kolkata — one of India's most prestigious commerce institutions — and has cleared CMT Level 2 from the CMT Association, a globally recognised certification in technical analysis and market research. His research methodology combines fundamental analysis (earnings quality, balance sheet strength, management commentary) with advanced technical analysis (chart patterns, momentum indicators, market structure) — giving Univest's retail investors a dual-lens approach that most Indian research platforms lack. Ankit is among the most comprehensively certified analysts in Indian financial media, holding five NISM certifications: Series-XV (Research Analyst), Series-VIII (Equity Derivatives), Series-VII (SORM), Series-VI (Depository Operations), and Series-V-A (Mutual Fund Distributors). At Univest — India's SEBI-registered research and advisory platform — Ankit's responsibilities include leading the research team, finalising stock recommendations published across Pro Lite, Pro Super, and Pro Gold advisory services, and maintaining editorial oversight of all YMYL financial content published on the blog.