Gold Price Prediction: After a 20% Crash, Can Gold Rise 20-25% by Dhanteras 2027? Axis Direct’s Forecast, Targets, Risks and the Buy or Wait Question
- November 6, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: Predictions
Axis Direct: MCX gold Rs 1.65-1.80 lakh by next Dhanteras (about 13-23% from Rs 1.46 lakh, 4 Nov). Resistance Rs 1,60,000. Brokerage view, not a guarantee.
Quick Answer
Gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027: Axis Direct sees MCX gold at Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams, a rise of about 13% to 23% from the 4 November price near Rs 1.46 lakh. Here is what supports and threatens the call.
Gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027: Axis Direct sees MCX gold at Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams, a rise of about 13% to 23% from the 4 November price near Rs 1.46 lakh, per Business Today. The headline 20% to 25% return depends on which price you start from. This is a brokerage forecast, not a promise. Figures below come from Business Today, PTI and other press reports. This is not investment advice.
Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions
Gold Price Prediction: What Axis Direct Says
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Target by next Dhanteras | Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000 (one report); Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh (another report) |
| Reference price | About Rs 1.46 lakh on 4 November; another report cites Rs 1,42,750 |
| Resistance | Near Rs 1,60,000, which turned into a supply zone |
| Peak | Rs 1,80,000, from which gold fell more than 20% |
| Return since last Dhanteras | About 8% |
| Five-year gain | About 200%, from about Rs 47,600 in November 2021 |
The two Business Today reports give slightly different target ranges and starting prices, so I show both. On my arithmetic, Rs 1.65 lakh from Rs 1.46 lakh is about 13%, and Rs 1.80 lakh is about 23%. From Rs 1,42,750, Rs 1,71,000 is about 20% and Rs 1.80 lakh is about 26%. Always check the base price behind any percentage return.
Why Axis Direct Stays Positive
| Support | Detail |
|---|---|
| Correction view | Chirag Mehta of Axis Direct calls the fall a correction without capitulation and sees it as temporary liquidity pressure |
| ETF inflows | Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of USD 3.2 billion through 23 October, after 15 straight weeks of inflows |
| Central banks | China’s central bank added 21 tonnes in September, its 23rd straight month of buying |
| Staggered buying | Axis Direct says long-term investors can add gold gradually |
Motilal Oswal sees USD 3,800 to USD 3,900 per ounce as an accumulation zone, with medium-term targets of USD 4,500 to USD 4,700, per Business Today. Gold closed 30 October at USD 3,875 and was near USD 4,100 on 6 November.
Compare gold-linked stocks on the Univest Screener
Why Did Gold Fall More Than 20%?
| Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| Strong dollar | The dollar index rose about 4%, and gold usually moves opposite to the dollar |
| US rates | The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, and US inflation was 3.7% in September |
| Oil | Brent rose 13.6% in October and touched USD 118, per Business Today |
| Forced selling | Gold fell 2.8% on 22 October even as yields fell, which the report blames on margin calls and cash raising |
| Technicals | A weekly close below the 20-day moving average in September weakened the outlook |
In dollar terms gold closed October nearly 30% below its January record, per Business Today. In rupee terms the fall was about 20%, since a weaker rupee cushions domestic prices.
Risks That Could Break the Forecast
| Risk | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Stronger dollar | It can keep gold under pressure |
| Higher rates | Gold pays no interest, so rising rates hurt it |
| Geopolitics | Middle East tension cuts both ways |
| Rupee strength | A stronger rupee lowers domestic prices |
| Import duty | A duty cut can lower domestic prices quickly |
| Forecast error | Brokerage targets are often missed |
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to get gold alerts and track MCX gold on your phone.
Buy or Wait?
Axis Direct’s view favours gradual buying, but a forecast does not remove the risk of more short-term weakness. A staggered plan spreads timing risk, and the share of gold in your savings should reflect your goals. Review jewellery, coins, ETFs and digital gold by cost and resale terms. Our Dhanteras 2026 gold buying guide covers the practical side.
Conclusion
The gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027 from Axis Direct implies gains of about 13% to 23% from early November levels, supported by ETF inflows and central bank buying but exposed to the dollar and rates. Treat the target as one view, and invest gradually.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions on the Gold Price Prediction
What is the gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027?
Ans. Axis Direct expects MCX gold at Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams by next Dhanteras, per Business Today. Another report gives Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000. These are brokerage forecasts, not guarantees.
How much return does this forecast imply?
Ans. From the 4 November price near Rs 1.46 lakh, the range implies about 13% to 23% by my arithmetic. The headline says 20% to 25%, which uses a lower base price. Check the starting price.
Why did gold fall more than 20%?
Ans. Business Today cites a stronger dollar, high US rates, rising oil, persistent inflation and forced liquidation. It also notes gold fell 2.8% on 22 October even as yields dropped.
What supports a gold recovery?
Ans. Axis Direct points to central bank buying and ETF inflows. Global gold ETFs saw USD 3.2 billion of net inflows through 23 October, and China added gold for 23 months in a row.
What are the key gold levels to watch?
Ans. Axis Direct sees resistance near Rs 1,60,000 on MCX gold. Motilal Oswal sees USD 3,800 to USD 3,900 per ounce as an accumulation zone. Levels change, so check live data.
Is gold likely to fall further?
Ans. It could. The report warns liquidity-driven selling could bring short-term weakness. A firmer dollar or higher rates could extend losses, while Fed easing could help.
Should I buy gold now or wait?
Ans. Univest cannot say. Buying in parts spreads timing risk, and your allocation should match your goals. Compare costs and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before acting.
Are gold forecasts reliable?
Ans. No. Targets are opinions and are often revised. Gold has moved sharply in 2026 despite bullish forecasts, so use them as one input, not a plan.
