US Fed Meeting Today: Expectations, Time in IST, Where to Watch Kevin Warsh’s Speech and How the Rate Decision May Impact Gold and Markets
- October 28, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
The US Fed meeting ends today, Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026, with the policy statement due at 2:00 PM ET, which is 11:30 PM IST (my conversion), and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET, or 12:00 AM IST on 29 Oct. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% at its previous meeting on 16 Sep, and markets expect a hold, with the chance of another hike put at about 7% to 10%.
Quick Answer
The US Fed meeting is expected to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with market pricing of about 93% for a hold and about 7% for a 25-basis-point hike, but analysts expect a hawkish pause because September CPI inflation was 3.7% and a December hike looks more likely. The decision comes at 11:30 PM IST and Kevin Warsh’s press conference follows at 12:00 AM IST, so Indian markets react on Thursday, 29 Oct. A hawkish tone can lift the US dollar and Treasury yields, which usually weighs on gold and on foreign flows into India, while a softer tone can help both. This is educational and not a recommendation.
The US Fed meeting is the main global event this week, and it lands on a day when the Sensex fell as much as 995 points on crude above USD 115 and FII selling. This article explains the US Fed meeting schedule in IST, what markets expect from the Fed rate decision, what Kevin Warsh may say, where to watch the speech, and how the outcome may affect gold, the dollar and Indian markets, using data as of 12:58 PM IST.
The decision has not been announced as I write, so nothing here is a result. Sources differ on the hike probability (about 6.6% to 10% for October), on August PCE inflation and on the US 10-year yield, and I show the differences instead of choosing one. I did not retrieve a live gold spot price in dollars. It is educational and not advice.
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US Fed Meeting Today: Date, Time in IST and Key Facts
| US Fed meeting: item | Detail | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Meeting dates | 27 and 28 Oct 2026 | Decision on the second day |
| Current target range | 3.75% to 4.00% | After a 25 basis point hike on 16 Sep from 3.50% to 3.75%; the vote was unanimous |
| Policy statement | 2:00 PM ET on 28 Oct | 11:30 PM IST on 28 Oct (my conversion, US daylight time until 1 Nov) |
| Chair’s press conference | 2:30 PM ET | 12:00 AM IST on 29 Oct (my conversion) |
| Dot plot | Not due this month | The next Summary of Economic Projections comes at the 8 and 9 Dec meeting |
| Minutes | About three weeks after the decision | Usual schedule |
| Election timing | Six days before US Election Day | Seen as a deterrent to bold moves |
The statement and the press conference are separate events. The statement shows the rate, the vote and the wording on inflation, and the press conference is where the chair explains the thinking and takes questions. Because the US Fed meeting ends late at night in India, the first market reaction in Asia comes on Thursday morning.
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What Markets Expect From the US Fed Meeting: Hold, Hike and Dissent
| US Fed meeting: expectation | Reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Hold at 3.75% to 4.00% | About 93.4% priced | Coinpedia, 28 Oct; the pricing source is not named |
| 25 basis point hike | About 6.6% priced; earlier reports said 7% and less than 10% | Coinpedia; Yahoo Finance citing CME Group |
| Earlier hike odds (9 Oct, stale) | About 16% | Admiral Markets, average of prediction markets |
| December hike | Considered much more likely than October; about 75% to 85% on 9 Oct | Yahoo Finance; Admiral Markets |
| Possible dissenters | Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan, in favour of a hike | Associated Press, as reported by TechYorker |
| Style of outcome | A hawkish pause, in the view of former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder | Yahoo Finance |
A hawkish pause at this US Fed meeting means that the FOMC holds rates but signals that a hike is still possible. September’s minutes said most participants thought another increase could be appropriate before year-end, which is why December is the month markets are watching. A dissent for a hike would also send a hawkish signal even if the rate does not change.
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Kevin Warsh’s Speech: What to Watch at the US Fed Meeting
| US Fed meeting: what to watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Wording on inflation | Whether inflation is still called elevated and whether progress toward 2% is described as less convincing |
| Language on growth and jobs | Whether the phrase on a solid pace of activity stays, given weak September payrolls |
| Vote split | Any dissent in favour of a hike would be a hawkish surprise |
| Guidance | Warsh has shown little interest in explicit forward guidance, so he may stress flexibility and data |
| AI and inflation | Warsh called AI a shock that central bankers must recognise in remarks at the IMF meetings |
| December signal | Whether a hold still keeps a year-end hike open |
Warsh has said that the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long, as reported. That makes a soft message less likely than a firm one, although a hold on its own already counts as less than a hike. Where to watch the speech: the Federal Reserve usually streams the press conference on its website and YouTube channel, and most business news channels and finance sites carry it live, but I did not confirm today’s stream links. The press conference after the US Fed meeting is where any guidance will come.
Inflation and Jobs Data Behind the US Fed Meeting
| US Fed meeting: data point | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| September CPI | Up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year | BLS data, as reported |
| September core CPI | Up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year | Hotter than expected |
| August PCE inflation | 3.4% headline and 3.0% core in one report; 3.8% and 3.4% in another | Sources conflict; check the BEA release |
| September PCE | Due 29 Oct, the day after the decision | The Fed’s preferred gauge |
| September payrolls | Up 29,000 against a forecast of 90,000; earlier months revised down by 60,000 | Weak |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2%, up from 4.1% | Rising slowly |
| Energy prices | Brent near USD 103 on 9 Oct and above USD 115 in Indian trade on 28 Oct | Feeds inflation |
The data point in two directions. Inflation is hot, which supports a hike, while hiring is weak, which supports patience. That mix is why a hold with a hawkish tone is the base case for the US Fed meeting.
How the US Fed Meeting May Affect Gold
| US Fed meeting: scenario | Dollar and yields | Likely effect on gold |
|---|---|---|
| Hold with a hawkish tone | Dollar firm, yields stay high | Gold stays under pressure, but much of this is priced in |
| Surprise hike or hike dissents | Dollar and yields rise | Gold likely falls, because it pays no interest |
| Hold with a softer tone | Dollar and yields ease | Gold may recover |
| Sharp warning on inflation or energy | Mixed; safe-haven demand rises | Gold can rise even with a firm Fed |
| US Fed meeting: gold and silver level (12:58 PM IST) | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| MCX Gold Mini, 5 Nov futures | Rs 142,000 per 10 grams, down 0.36% | Day range Rs 141,735 to Rs 142,384 |
| MCX Silver Mini, 30 Nov futures | Rs 197,281 per kg, down 0.76% | Day range Rs 196,830 to Rs 199,465 |
| Gold in dollars, resistance | USD 4,054 to USD 4,060 | Coinpedia technical view; spot price not stated |
| Gold in dollars, support | USD 4,029 to USD 4,038, then USD 4,020 and USD 4,016 | Same view |
The dollar levels come from one unnamed technical view and are not forecasts. Gold price moves after the US Fed meeting will also depend on the US dollar index, which was above 102 on Tuesday. The gold price was around USD 4,195 on 9 Oct (Admiral Markets), so it is lower now, which fits with the pressure from higher yields and a firm dollar. The effect on the gold price in India also depends on the rupee, which I did not retrieve.
How the US Fed Meeting May Affect Sensex, Nifty and the Rupee
| US Fed meeting: channel | What to watch | Current reading |
|---|---|---|
| Foreign flows | A hawkish Fed can keep FIIs selling | FIIs net sellers for ten straight weeks; about Rs 51,466 crore sold in October (my conversion), against Rs 59,110 crore bought by DIIs |
| US yields | Higher yields draw money away from emerging markets | 10-year yield reported at 4.99% by Yahoo Finance and about 5.42% earlier by Business Standard; sources conflict |
| Crude oil | Costlier oil adds to inflation and the import bill | Brent above USD 115 on 28 Oct |
| Index levels | Day’s low is the first reference point | Sensex fell as much as 995 points to 72,603 and Nifty as much as 252 points to 22,497 (Business Standard, 10:56 AM) |
| Rupee | A stronger dollar usually weighs on the rupee | Not retrieved |
Indian markets cannot react to the decision today, because it comes after the close. The Sensex and Nifty are already weak, so some caution may be priced in before the event. The reaction to the US Fed meeting on Thursday depends more on the tone and the vote than on the rate itself.
Risks Around the US Fed Meeting
- Hawkish surprise. A hike at the US Fed meeting, or two or more dissents for a hike, could lift yields and the dollar.
- Unclear guidance. Warsh may avoid giving a path, which can leave markets guessing and raise volatility.
- Energy shock. Brent above USD 115 can push inflation higher and make the Fed more cautious.
- Data conflicts. Reports differ on PCE inflation, yields and hike odds, so check official releases.
- Forecast error. Probabilities for the US Fed meeting change by the hour, and the figures here are from the morning.
Conclusion: The US Fed Meeting Is Likely a Hawkish Pause, and the Tone Decides the Reaction
The US Fed meeting is expected to hold the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with the statement at 11:30 PM IST and Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 12:00 AM IST. The tone, the vote and any hint about December matter more than the Fed rate decision itself. Check the official statement, watch gold, the dollar and yields, and decide with your own risk profile.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the US Fed meeting decision in India?
Ans. The statement is due at 2:00 PM ET on 28 Oct 2026, which is 11:30 PM IST, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference is at 2:30 PM ET, which is 12:00 AM IST on 29 Oct. This is my conversion, assuming US daylight time continues until 1 Nov.
What is the Fed rate decision expected to be?
Ans. The US Fed meeting is expected to end in a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%, with about 93% priced for no change and about 7% for a 25 basis point hike. Analysts expect a hawkish pause, and a December hike looks more likely.
Where can I watch Kevin Warsh’s speech?
Ans. The Federal Reserve usually streams the press conference live on its website and YouTube channel, and major business news channels carry it. I did not confirm today’s links, so check the Fed’s official page.
What did the Fed do at its previous meeting?
Ans. At the previous US Fed meeting on 16 Sep 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% from 3.50% to 3.75%.
How may the Fed decision affect gold?
Ans. After the US Fed meeting, a hawkish message can lift the dollar and yields, which usually weighs on gold, while a softer tone can help it. MCX Gold Mini November futures were at Rs 142,000 per 10 grams, down 0.36%, at 12:58 PM IST.
How may the Fed decision affect the Sensex and Nifty?
Ans. India reacts to the US Fed meeting on Thursday, 29 Oct. A hawkish tone can keep FIIs selling and pressure the rupee, while a softer tone can help. The Sensex fell as much as 995 points today before the event.
What is the inflation backdrop for the decision?
Ans. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and core CPI rose 2.6% on the year. September payrolls were weak at 29,000, and PCE inflation for September is due on 29 Oct.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
