Best Steel Stocks to Watch: Why Aditya Birla Money Prefers JSW Steel and SAIL, Q2 Numbers, Valuation and Key Levels Compared
- October 27, 2026
- Posted by: Lakshit Sharma
- Category: News
Aditya Birla Money’s steel sector report of 23 Oct 2026 rates JSW Steel and SAIL as Buy and Tata Steel and Jindal Steel as Add, and steel stocks closed higher on Tuesday, 27 Oct 2026: SAIL at Rs 171.20 (up 0.82%), Tata Steel at Rs 171.42 (up 0.87%) and Jindal Steel at Rs 1,060 (up 1.93%), while JSW Steel was at Rs 1,252.70 (down 0.58%). The report gives no target prices, so the brokerage targets in this article come from other houses.
Quick Answer
Aditya Birla Money prefers JSW Steel, which it calls a compounder with consistent capacity additions, and SAIL, which it calls a margin recovery play, among steel stocks. The report assumes Indian steel consumption grows at a 7.5% CAGR, inventories of about 10 million tonnes fall to almost zero in three years, and prices stay above their 10-year averages. The main risk it names is the unwinding of the 11% to 12% safeguard duty in 2028. This is educational and not a recommendation.
Steel stocks are in focus because JSW Steel has just reported a threefold rise in profit and a broker has put two of them at the top of its list. This article compares the four steel stocks in that report on ratings, results, valuation and price levels, and it keeps the facts about each source clear. The headline names Aditya Birla Capital, while the report itself is from Aditya Birla Money, a group company.
I could not find target prices from Aditya Birla Money, so I show the brokerage targets for JSW Steel, the only one of these steel stocks with fresh targets in my sources, from other houses. SAIL’s Q2 FY27 results were not available in my data, and its latest quarter below is June 2026. It is educational and not advice.
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Steel Stocks: What Aditya Birla Money Says
| Steel stocks: company | Aditya Birla Money view | Reason given |
|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel | Buy | Compounder with consistent capacity additions |
| SAIL | Buy | Margin recovery play |
| Tata Steel | Add | Not detailed in the report summary |
| Jindal Steel | Add | Not detailed in the report summary |
| ArcelorMittal | Positive view, no rating stated | Targets 40 million tonnes of Indian capacity against about 9 million tonnes now |
The report argues that the market is not pricing a multi-year steel cycle and that guessing the peak is futile. It expects supply and demand to grow 6% to 8% a year, and it expects prices to stay above their 10-year averages. Policy support matters too for steel stocks: it cites the EU’s tariff rate quota, US Section 232 and India’s safeguard duty, and says Europe, the UK and the US have recently imposed tariffs of 50%.
The key worry for steel stocks is the safeguard duty of 11% to 12%, which investors fear could unwind in 2028. The author expects the measures to stay beyond 2028 as part of policy continuity. Short-term inventory flows could also cause modest price swings.
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JSW Steel Q2 FY27 Results and Brokerage Targets
| Steel stocks: JSW Steel Q2 FY27 (Rs crore) | Data provider | Business Today report |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54,927 (total income) | 54,486 from operations, up 10.7% |
| EBITDA | 10,561 | 10,120, up 42.2% YoY and 6% QoQ |
| Net profit | 5,359 (up 14.1% on Q1’s 4,696) | 5,279, up 225.3% from 1,623 |
The two sources use different bases, which explains the gaps: the larger profit appears to be before minority interest and the smaller one after it, and one revenue figure includes other income. Both agree that the quarter was strong, with record volumes, offset partly by higher coking coal prices and lower steel realisations.
| Steel stocks: JSW Steel brokerage | Rating and target | Upside from Rs 1,252.70 (my calculation) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Buy, Rs 1,650 (upside case Rs 1,800, downside case Rs 1,050) | 31.7% | 10 times Sep-28E EV/EBITDA; EPS expected to roughly triple over FY26 to FY29 |
| Systematix | Buy, Rs 1,515 | 20.9% | 9.5 times EBITDA plus a 50% stake in JJSL valued at about Rs 15,800 crore |
| MOSL | Buy, Rs 1,460 | 16.6% | Sum of the parts; 6.9 times FY28E EV/EBITDA |
The brokerages quoted a price of Rs 1,193.80, so the JSW Steel share price is about 4.9% higher now and the upside to each target is lower than they stated (my calculation). Jefferies says Indian steel prices have risen about 15% since August 2026 and points to a 10 million tonne expansion that supports a plan to double capacity by FY32. Systematix expects coking coal costs to rise by about USD 25 a tonne in the December quarter and lists weaker steel prices, higher input costs and project delays as risks.
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Steel Stocks Compared: Prices, Results and Valuation
| Steel stocks: company | Close on 27 Oct | Latest quarter (data provider) | Price to earnings | Price to book | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel | Rs 1,252.70 | Sep 2026: revenue Rs 54,927 crore, profit Rs 5,359 crore | 9.70 | 2.72 | 11.86% |
| SAIL | Rs 171.20 | Jun 2026: revenue Rs 26,451.21 crore, profit Rs 1,644.05 crore | 16.43 | 1.16 | 6.35% |
| Tata Steel | Rs 171.42 | Jun 2026: revenue Rs 61,026.97 crore, profit Rs 2,385.24 crore | 18.82 | 2.11 | 10.56% |
| Jindal Steel | Rs 1,060 | Sep 2026: revenue Rs 19,447.87 crore, profit Rs 770.64 crore | 37.12 | 2.02 | 6.16% |
The industry price to earnings for steel stocks is 19.89. JSW Steel’s 9.70 looks low, but its trailing earnings include a March 2026 quarter with profit of Rs 19,243 crore and an operating margin of 53.6%, which looks like a one-off gain (my reading), so the multiple flatters the stock. The SAIL share price has backing from profit, which for June 2026 was more than double that of a year earlier, at Rs 1,644.05 crore against Rs 744.58 crore (my calculation), which supports the margin recovery view, while its return on equity of 6.35% is still low.
Jindal Steel’s Q2 revenue rose about 44.0% year on year to Rs 19,447.87 crore and profit about 21.3% to Rs 770.64 crore (my calculation), but its operating margin eased to 13.37% from 15.04% in June. The Tata Steel share price has June profit about 18.8% higher than a year earlier behind it, and the dividend yield of 2.36% is the highest of the four.
Technical Levels for Steel Stocks
| Steel stocks: company | 14-day RSI | 20-day EMA | SuperTrend (10, 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel | 48.86 | Rs 1,225.79 | Buy; lower band Rs 1,135.45, upper band Rs 1,261.68 |
| SAIL | 40.97 | Rs 172.74 | Buy; lower band Rs 155.00, upper band Rs 182.41 |
| Tata Steel | 36.92 | Rs 175.37 | Buy; lower band Rs 164.45, upper band Rs 180.60 |
| Jindal Steel | 44.00 | Rs 1,057.54 | Buy; lower band Rs 964, upper band Rs 1,100.78 |
The JSW Steel share price is about 2.2% above its 20-day average and near the upper SuperTrend band of Rs 1,261.68, while the SAIL share price and the Tata Steel share price trade slightly below their averages. All four steel stocks carry a buy signal from SuperTrend, which reflects the trend and not a recommendation.
Risks and What to Watch Next
- Safeguard duty. An unwinding of the 11% to 12% duty in 2028 is the main investor concern for steel stocks.
- Input costs. A rise in coking coal costs can reduce margins, as Systematix flags for the December quarter.
- Price swings. Weaker steel prices would hit earnings across steel stocks.
- Source differences. JSW Steel’s profit and EBITDA differ by source, so check the exchange filing.
- No targets. The Aditya Birla Money report summary gives ratings only, so upside in these steel stocks cannot be measured from it.
Conclusion: Steel Stocks Have Momentum, but Check the Basis
Among steel stocks, the JSW Steel share price has the strongest results and the widest brokerage support behind it, SAIL has the clearest margin recovery, and the Tata Steel share price and Jindal Steel carry Add ratings. Prices have already moved, margins depend on coking coal and policy, and the headline rating is a view and not a target. Compare the filings, the safeguard duty risk and your own risk profile before acting on any of these steel stocks.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Which steel stocks does Aditya Birla Money prefer?
Ans. Its steel sector report of 23 Oct 2026 rates JSW Steel and SAIL as Buy, and Tata Steel and Jindal Steel as Add. It calls JSW Steel a compounder with consistent capacity additions and SAIL a margin recovery play. The report summary I found gives no target prices.
What did JSW Steel report in Q2 FY27?
Ans. The data provider shows revenue of Rs 54,927 crore, EBITDA of Rs 10,561 crore and net profit of Rs 5,359 crore, up 14.1% on Q1. Another report shows EBITDA of Rs 10,120 crore and profit of Rs 5,279 crore, up 225.3% year on year. The bases differ, so check the filing.
What are the brokerage targets for JSW Steel among steel stocks?
Ans. Jefferies has a Buy with a target of Rs 1,650, Systematix a Buy with Rs 1,515 and MOSL a Buy with Rs 1,460. Against the 27 Oct close of Rs 1,252.70, the upside is about 31.7%, 20.9% and 16.6% (my calculation). Targets are opinions.
Why is SAIL called a margin recovery play?
Ans. The SAIL share price rests on an operating margin that rose from 11.59% in June 2025 to 16.16% in June 2026, and its profit more than doubled to Rs 1,644.05 crore. Its return on equity is still low at 6.35%, and its Q2 FY27 results were not available in my data.
What is the biggest risk for steel stocks?
Ans. Aditya Birla Money names the possible unwinding of the 11% to 12% safeguard duty in 2028 as the main worry, although it expects policy to continue. Input costs, weaker steel prices and project delays are further risks.
How do the valuations of these steel stocks compare?
Ans. The data provider shows price to earnings of 9.70 for JSW Steel, 16.43 for SAIL, 18.82 for Tata Steel and 37.12 for Jindal Steel, against an industry level of 19.89. JSW Steel’s multiple is flattered by a one-off looking March 2026 profit, so use forward estimates.
What are the technical levels for these steel stocks?
Ans. RSI readings are 48.86 for JSW Steel, 40.97 for SAIL, 36.92 for Tata Steel and 44.00 for Jindal Steel, and all four have a SuperTrend buy signal. JSW Steel’s upper band is Rs 1,261.68 and SAIL’s lower band is Rs 155.00. These are trend readings and not targets.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.