Reliance Shares: Why Experts See RIL as an Opportunity Amid a Falling Stock Market, Explained With 3 Reasons and Target Price
- October 26, 2026
- Posted by: Neeraj Pandey
- Category: News
Reliance shares traded near Rs 1,195.80 around 11:08 AM on Monday, 26 Oct 2026, up 0.49% on the day but about 25.8% below the 52-week high of Rs 1,611.80. Experts quoted in the headline see the market fall as a chance for long-term investors to add RIL at a lower price. Nuvama has a Buy with a 12-month target of Rs 1,766 and Motilal Oswal has a Buy with a target of Rs 1,530, which imply gains of about 47.7% and 27.9% from here (my calculation).
Quick Answer
Reliance shares are being called an opportunity by experts because of three reasons: the Jio Platforms listing on 28 Oct could unlock value, Nuvama expects Q2 FY27 EBITDA to rise 17% year on year led by oil-to-chemicals, and the stock is about 25.8% below its 52-week high on a balance sheet with debt to equity of 0.44. The risks are a trailing price to earnings of 18.27 against an industry level of 15.22, weak oil and gas and retail EBITDA, and a daily trend that is still down. I could not retrieve the experts’ own list of three reasons, so the reasons here are drawn from verified notes and data. This is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Reliance shares have fallen with the market. The Nifty is down about 13.56% for 2026 and fell 2.36% last week, while Reliance was down about 25.6% for the year on 9 Oct, according to Business Today. A larger fall than the index is the reason experts call it a long-term opportunity, and also the reason to check the risks.
This article covers the three reasons, the brokerage targets, valuation, technical levels and the counter-arguments. It is educational and not advice.
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Reliance Shares Today: Where RIL Trades
| Reliance shares: measure (NSE, about 11:08 AM) | Reading |
|---|---|
| Last price | Rs 1,195.80, up 0.49% |
| Previous close (23 Oct) | Rs 1,190.00 |
| Day high and low | Rs 1,200.90 and Rs 1,174.50 |
| 52-week high and low | Rs 1,611.80 and Rs 1,152.20 |
| Distance from 52-week high | About 25.8% below (my calculation) |
| Distance from 52-week low | About 3.8% above (my calculation) |
| Market capitalisation | About Rs 16,10,372 crore |
The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 1,160.40 on 9 Oct, according to Business Today, and the data provider now shows a 52-week low of Rs 1,152.20. At Rs 1,195.80, Reliance shares sit only about 3.8% above that low, so the stock has not yet recovered much from the bottom. A long fall followed by a flat base is typical of a stock that is waiting for a trigger.
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Reason 1: The Jio Platforms Listing Could Unlock Value in Reliance Shares
| Reliance shares: Jio item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Jio Platforms issue | Rs 30,213 crore fresh issue, price band Rs 1,065 to Rs 1,119 |
| Allotment and listing | Allotment on 26 Oct, listing on 28 Oct 2026 |
| Motilal Oswal valuation of Jio | About Rs 11.2 lakh crore, about 12.1 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA |
| Reliance’s stake | About 66.48%, worth about Rs 7.45 lakh crore, or Rs 550 per RIL share, before a discount |
| Holding-company discount in the target | 25% |
| Discount implied by the share price | 18% to 36%, depending on the Reliance Retail multiple |
Motilal Oswal argues that a Jio listing could clarify its valuation and drive a re-rating, because the holding-company discount that Reliance shares trade at would be visible. Its target of Rs 1,530 values Jio at about Rs 413 per RIL share after the discount, Reliance Retail at Rs 505, oil-to-chemicals and exploration at Rs 418 and new energy at Rs 174. The date of that note was not stated on the page I found, so please check the latest version of the RIL target price before you rely on it.
Jio’s own numbers support the value case. Jio Platforms reported FY26 revenue of Rs 1,46,885.3 crore, EBITDA of Rs 76,255.4 crore and profit of Rs 30,052.7 crore in its offer documents. If the market values Jio near its issue pricing, the gap with Reliance’s share price becomes easier to see.
Reason 2: Earnings Support for Reliance Shares
| Reliance shares: Nuvama Q2 FY27 estimate (reported 9 Oct) | EBITDA change year on year |
|---|---|
| Consolidated EBITDA | Up 17%, above the earlier estimate |
| Oil-to-chemicals | Up 38%, helped by middle distillate crack spreads |
| Digital | Up 16% |
| Oil and gas | Down 6% |
| Retail | Down 1% |
Nuvama Institutional Equities rates Reliance shares Buy, and its Reliance share price target is Rs 1,766 over 12 months, which is the highest RIL target price I could verify. The mix matters, because oil-to-chemicals and digital carry the growth while oil and gas and retail are soft. Q1 FY27 numbers, as summarised in a Univest preview dated 8 Sep, were revenue of Rs 3,11,850 crore and net profit of Rs 20,946 crore, with Jio’s EBITDA margin at 53.3%.
I could not confirm the Q2 results date, so the estimate remains an estimate until the company reports. If the numbers match Nuvama’s view, Reliance shares would have an earnings reason to recover as well as a Jio reason.
Reason 3: Valuation and Balance Sheet of Reliance Shares
| Reliance shares: valuation (data provider, trailing) | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price to earnings | 18.27 against an industry level of 15.22 |
| Price to book | 1.78 |
| Return on equity | 8.94% |
| Earnings per share | Rs 65.15 |
| Book value per share | Rs 668.04 |
| Debt to equity | 0.44 |
| Dividend yield | 0.50% |
Reliance shares are not lower-priced than their industry, since the price to earnings is about 1.2 times the industry level (my calculation). The case is about the fall from the high and the balance sheet, with debt to equity of 0.44, and not about a low multiple. A return on equity of 8.94% is also modest, so the argument depends on earnings growth and on the Jio value.
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Technical Levels for Reliance Shares
| Reliance shares: indicator (daily) | Reading |
|---|---|
| 14-day RSI | About 52.3, a neutral zone |
| 50-day average | About Rs 1,234.04, 3.1% above the price (my calculation) |
| 200-day average | About Rs 1,336.21, 10.5% above the price (my calculation) |
| SuperTrend | Sell signal; upper band Rs 1,230.75, lower band Rs 1,145.73 |
| Bollinger bands | Upper Rs 1,229.56, lower Rs 1,153.26 |
| MACD | Minus 13.60 against a signal of minus 18.17, improving |
The daily trend is still down, because the price is under both averages and under the SuperTrend upper band at Rs 1,230.75. The MACD histogram is positive at 4.57, which shows that selling pressure is easing. Support lies near Rs 1,174.50 (today’s low), Rs 1,153 and the 52-week low of Rs 1,152.20, and resistance near Rs 1,230 and Rs 1,234. These are indicator readings and not forecasts.
What Could Go Wrong for Reliance Shares
- Oil and gas. The West Asia crisis can weigh on profitability, and Nuvama expects oil and gas EBITDA to fall 6%.
- Depreciation. Heavy capital spending can raise depreciation charges, as Business Today notes.
- Retail. Retail EBITDA is expected to fall 1%, which would remove one growth leg.
- Valuation. A price to earnings of 18.27 is above the industry level.
- Market. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 Oct and Brent crude is near $115, so the market can fall further.
Conclusion
Experts see Reliance shares as an opportunity because of the Jio Platforms listing, Nuvama’s earnings view and a 25.8% fall from the high, with targets of Rs 1,766 from Nuvama and Rs 1,530 from Motilal Oswal. The risks are weak oil and gas and retail EBITDA, a premium valuation and a daily downtrend for Reliance shares, so any Reliance share price target or RIL target price should be rechecked. Check the facts and decide according to your own risk profile.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do experts say Reliance shares are an opportunity now?
Ans. Experts quoted in the headline argue that the market fall lets long-term investors add RIL at a lower price. Verified support includes the Jio Platforms listing on 28 Oct, Nuvama’s expectation of 17% EBITDA growth in Q2 FY27 and a fall of about 25.8% from the 52-week high. I could not retrieve their exact list of three reasons.
What is the RIL target price?
Ans. Nuvama Institutional Equities has a Buy with a 12-month target of Rs 1,766, according to Business Today on 9 Oct. Motilal Oswal has a Buy with a target of Rs 1,530. Against Rs 1,195.80, these imply gains of about 47.7% and 27.9% by my calculation. Targets change, so check the latest reports on the Reliance share price target.
How does the Jio Platforms listing affect Reliance shares?
Ans. Reliance owns about 66.48% of Jio Platforms, according to Motilal Oswal, so a listing could show how the market values the stake and narrow the holding-company discount. Motilal Oswal applies a 25% discount in its target and says the share price implies a discount of 18% to 36%.
What are the technical levels for Reliance shares?
Ans. On daily indicators, support is near Rs 1,174.50, Rs 1,153 and Rs 1,152.20, and resistance is near Rs 1,230.75 and Rs 1,234. The 14-day RSI is about 52.3 and the SuperTrend is on a sell signal. These readings are not forecasts.
Are Reliance shares undervalued?
Ans. Not on the headline multiple. The data provider shows a trailing price to earnings of 18.27 against an industry level of 15.22 and a return on equity of 8.94%. The argument for Reliance shares rests on the fall from the high, the Jio value and expected earnings growth.
When will Reliance announce Q2 FY27 results?
Ans. I could not confirm the board meeting date. Reliance reported Q2 FY26 on 17 Oct 2025 and Q1 FY27 on 17 Jul 2026, so please check the exchange filing for the Q2 FY27 date.
Is this Reliance shares article investment advice?
Ans. No. This article is educational. Targets and figures come from news reports, company disclosures and data providers and may change. Please check the facts and your own risk profile before you invest.
Is this article investment advice?
Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.
