Jio IPO Valuation Likely at Rs 11 Lakh Crore: Will Mukesh Ambani’s RIL Gain, Do Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea Feel the Heat? Rs 30,200 Crore Issue, Motilal Oswal View, EV/EBITDA, ARPU and Risks
- October 12, 2026
- Posted by: Neeraj Pandey
- Category: News
Jio IPO valuation: likely near Rs 11 lakh crore ($114 bn), below the $130 to $170 bn discussed earlier. Issue of up to 27 crore new shares, about Rs 30,200 cr per the headline. Motilal Oswal: Jio Rs 11.2 lakh cr (12x FY28E EV/EBITDA); Airtel India 10.3x. RIL owns about 66.4%.
Quick Answer
Jio IPO valuation is likely to be about Rs 11 lakh crore ($114 billion), below the $130 billion to $170 billion discussed earlier, with a fresh issue of up to 27 crore shares that the headline says could raise about Rs 30,200 crore. Motilal Oswal values Jio at Rs 11.2 lakh crore, or about 12 times FY28E EV/EBITDA, says the listing may set a benchmark for telecom valuations and sees room for Bharti Airtel to re-rate because its India business trades near 10.3 times. RIL gains through its roughly 66.4% stake, worth about Rs 7.44 lakh crore at that value, while Vodafone Idea looks stretched with net debt of 9.6 times FY28E EBITDA against 0.3 times for Airtel. The valuation and dates can still change, so the final price band in the prospectus will decide the actual numbers.
Jio IPO valuation has become the biggest talking point in Indian markets, because a Rs 11 lakh crore listing would make Jio Platforms the third most valuable listed company in India, behind Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel.
The questions investors are asking are simple: is the Jio IPO valuation fair, does Reliance gain, and does Jio’s listing help or hurt Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea? This guide covers the valuation range, the issue size, Motilal Oswal’s numbers, the Jio versus Airtel comparison, what it means for RIL and the risks.
A note on the numbers: reports differ on the issue size and valuation, and the final price band had not been announced in the sources I read. Where figures conflict, the difference is flagged.
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Jio IPO Valuation: What Is Reported
| Item | Reported detail | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Likely Jio IPO valuation | About Rs 11 lakh crore ($114 billion) | Per Bloomberg; lower than earlier expectations |
| Earlier range | $130 billion to $170 billion | Discussed in earlier months |
| Brokerage estimates of Jio IPO valuation | Motilal Oswal $115 billion to $118 billion; Dolat Capital about $110 billion | Motilal Oswal now uses Rs 11.2 lakh crore |
| Issue | Up to 27 crore new shares, about 2.93% of post-issue equity | Bloomberg’s calculation; no offer for sale mentioned |
| Raise | About Rs 30,200 crore per the headline | Another calculation gives Rs 32,000 crore to Rs 32,500 crore |
| Timing | Opening targeted for the week of 19 October; listing before 30 October | Dates could change |
| Bankers | 19 banks, including Kotak, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Axis Capital, BNP Paribas, Citigroup | Per BusinessToday |
At Rs 11 lakh crore, Jio IPO valuation would sit just below Bharti Airtel at about $116 billion and well below Reliance at about $169 billion. The Rs 30,200 crore and Rs 32,000 crore figures differ because 2.75% and 2.93% of the equity give different totals (my calculation), so wait for the final issue size.
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Why the Jio IPO Valuation Is Lower Than Expected
- Market mood: a stock rout has hit pricing ambitions across Indian IPOs, and the NSE offering was forced to downsize.
- Size: at about 2.93% of equity, the issue is large in rupees even at a lower valuation, and bankers want it fully subscribed.
- Comparison: Airtel’s India business trades at about 10.3 times FY28E EV/EBITDA, so a much higher multiple in the Jio IPO valuation is hard to justify.
- Earlier talk of the Jio IPO valuation was high: figures of $130 billion to $170 billion were discussed before demand gauging.
A lower Jio IPO valuation may help the issue sell well and leave room for gains after listing, but that depends on the price band and market conditions.
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Motilal Oswal on the Jio IPO Valuation
| Item | Motilal Oswal view | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Jio valuation | Rs 11.2 lakh crore, about 12x FY28E EV/EBITDA | Close to the likely IPO level |
| Airtel India at market price | 10.3x FY28E EV/EBITDA | At Rs 11 lakh crore, Jio would be about 17% higher |
| Airtel discount to Jio | No case for a meaningful discount | Airtel has stronger free cash flow and return on capital |
| Tariffs | The Jio IPO and Vodafone Idea’s fundraise make the case for a tariff hike stronger | Motilal Oswal assumes a 15% smartphone tariff hike in December 2026 |
| RIL target | Rs 1,530 retained | Jio adds Rs 413 per RIL share after a 25% discount |
The key point is that the Jio IPO valuation becomes a yardstick. If Jio lists at about 12 times, Airtel at 10.3 times for its India business looks inexpensive, which is the basis for the re-rating argument.
Jio vs Airtel: The Numbers Behind the Jio IPO Valuation
| Measure | Jio | Bharti Airtel |
|---|---|---|
| Paying wireless subscribers, FY26 | 497 million | 373 million |
| ARPU, FY26 | Rs 203 | Rs 254 |
| ARPU, FY29 projected | Rs 244 | Rs 322 |
| Wireless revenue, FY26 | Rs 1,180 billion | Rs 1,121 billion |
| Wireless EBITDA, FY26 | Rs 698 billion | Rs 680 billion |
| Wireless EBITDA margin, FY26 | 54.2% | 60.2% |
| EBITDA growth, FY20 to FY26 CAGR | 21.6% | 26.1% |
Jio has more subscribers and slightly higher revenue, but Airtel earns a higher ARPU and a higher margin. That is why Motilal Oswal argues Airtel should not trade at a discount to the Jio IPO valuation.
Will RIL Gain From the Jio IPO Valuation?
| Item | Figure | Note |
|---|---|---|
| RIL stake in Jio | About 66.4% | Per Motilal Oswal |
| Value of the stake at Rs 11.2 lakh crore | About Rs 7.44 lakh crore | About Rs 550 per RIL share before discount |
| Value at Rs 11 lakh crore | About Rs 7.31 lakh crore | My calculation at 66.43% |
| After a 25% holding-company discount | Rs 413 per RIL share | Used in Motilal Oswal’s target |
| Discount in RIL’s price | 18% to 36% on the Jio stake | Depends on the value given to retail |
RIL gains in two ways: the listing sets a market price for its Jio stake, and it can narrow the holding-company discount. At this Jio IPO valuation, the fresh issue also dilutes Reliance only slightly, to about 64.5% if fully sold (my calculation from an earlier DRHP-based article).
Do Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea Feel the Heat?
| Measure | Vodafone Idea | Bharti Airtel |
|---|---|---|
| Net debt to FY28E EBITDA | 9.6x | 0.3x |
| EV to FY28E EBITDA | 15.9x | 7.3x |
| Effect of Jio IPO valuation | A listing at 12x makes a 15.9x multiple look stretched | A re-rating argument if Jio lists above 10.3x |
| Tariff angle | A fundraise and the Jio IPO strengthen the case for higher tariffs | Benefits from any tariff hike |
Airtel may see the heat as a comparison, not as a threat, since the Jio IPO valuation could lift sector multiples. Vodafone Idea faces the sharper test because its debt is high, and it benefits only if tariffs rise.
Risks Around the Jio IPO Valuation
Pricing change: The valuation and dates were reported as subject to change, and the price band was not yet announced.
Weak market: A stock rout has already forced other issuers to cut size or price.
Supply: Fresh equity of about Rs 30,000 crore or more can absorb a lot of investor money.
Lower ARPU: Jio’s ARPU of Rs 203 trails Airtel’s Rs 254, so growth depends on tariff hikes.
Estimate risk: Motilal Oswal’s figures for the Jio IPO valuation assume a 15% tariff increase in December 2026, which is not certain.
What to Watch Next for the Jio IPO Valuation
- The price band, issue size and final Jio IPO valuation in the red herring prospectus.
- Anchor investor demand and subscription numbers.
- Any change to the opening date in the week of 19 October.
- Whether Airtel and Vodafone Idea react when the price band is announced.
- Tariff hike news from the three operators.
Conclusion
Jio IPO valuation near Rs 11 lakh crore is lower than hoped but still makes Jio the third most valuable listed company, and it gives RIL a clear market value for its stake. Airtel gains a benchmark and Vodafone Idea faces the toughest comparison. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decision.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the likely Jio IPO valuation?
Ans. About Rs 11 lakh crore ($114 billion), per Bloomberg, lower than the $130 billion to $170 billion discussed earlier.
How much will Jio raise in the IPO?
Ans. The headline says about Rs 30,200 crore from up to 27 crore new shares. Another calculation gives Rs 32,000 crore to Rs 32,500 crore.
When is the Jio IPO expected?
Ans. It is targeted to open in the week of 19 October and list before 30 October, but the dates could change.
What does Motilal Oswal say about the Jio IPO valuation?
Ans. It values Jio at Rs 11.2 lakh crore, about 12 times FY28E EV/EBITDA, and says the listing may influence telecom valuations.
Will RIL gain from the Jio IPO?
Ans. RIL owns about 66.4% of Jio, worth about Rs 7.44 lakh crore at Motilal Oswal’s value, and the IPO sets a market price for it.
How does the Jio IPO affect Bharti Airtel?
Ans. Motilal Oswal sees room for Airtel to re-rate, since its India business trades near 10.3 times FY28E EV/EBITDA against about 12 times for Jio.
How does it affect Vodafone Idea?
Ans. Vodafone Idea has net debt of 9.6 times FY28E EBITDA, so it looks stretched next to Jio, and it benefits mainly if tariffs rise.
Should I apply for the Jio IPO?
Ans. This article does not constitute investment advice. Check the final price band and risks. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.
