Adani Green Energy Shares Up 16% in 6 Months: Jefferies Sees 35% More Upside With Target Price Rs 1,695, 22% Correction From Peak, 20x EV/EBITDA, 30% EBITDA CAGR, Q1 FY27 Numbers and Risks

October 12, 2026
Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
Category: News

Adani Green Energy shares: about Rs 1,269. Jefferies Buy, target Rs 1,695 (about 34% above, my calculation; report says 35%). 22% below peak, 20x 1Y forward EV/EBITDA, EBITDA CAGR 30% (FY26-30E). Q1 FY27 EBITDA Rs 4,122 cr (+33%).

Quick Answer

Adani Green Energy shares are up about 16% in six months and trade near Rs 1,269, and Jefferies has a Buy rating with a target of Rs 1,695, which is about 34% above that price (my calculation, while the report says 35%). Jefferies says the stock has corrected about 22% from its peak and trades at about 20 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which looks attractive against an expected 30% EBITDA CAGR over FY26 to FY30. Q1 FY27 supported the case, with power supply EBITDA up 33% to Rs 4,122 crore and operational capacity up 27% to 20,142 MW, but finance costs of Rs 2,001 crore absorb about half of that EBITDA (my calculation). Risks include the recent RBI rate hike, utilisation below Jefferies’ assumptions and execution delays at Khavda, so a target price is an opinion and not a guarantee.

Adani Green Energy shares are the listed flagship of the Adani group’s renewable business, with more than 20 GW of operating capacity and a plan to reach 50 GW by 2030. A fresh Buy call from Jefferies after a 22% fall from the peak has put Adani Green Energy shares back in the spotlight.

This article covers the Jefferies call, how the target is built, the valuation, the Q1 FY27 results, the Khavda and storage plans, the triggers, the risks and a checklist, so you can judge Adani Green Energy shares from the numbers.

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Table of Contents

Adani Green Energy Shares: The Jefferies Call in Numbers

Item	Detail	Note
Rating	Buy	Jefferies India
Target price	Rs 1,695	Based on 20 times EV/EBITDA for September 2028E, per the September note
Share price	About Rs 1,269	Ticker on the Business Today page
Upside	About 34%	My calculation; the report says 35%, likely from a different reference price
Correction	About 22% from the peak	Jefferies
Valuation	About 20 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA	Described as reasonable
EBITDA growth	About 30% CAGR over FY26 to FY30E	EPS CAGR about 26%, per the September note
Six-month return	Up about 16%	From the headline

The difference between 34% and 35% is a reminder that upside figures depend on the reference price, so always check the price used for Adani Green Energy shares.

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Jefferies Scenarios for Adani Green Energy Shares

Case	Target	Multiple	Move from about Rs 1,274 (September)
Upside case	Rs 2,140	22 times EV/EBITDA	About 69% up
Base case	Rs 1,695	20 times EV/EBITDA	About 34% up
Downside case	Rs 1,250	18 times EV/EBITDA	About 2% down

These cases are from the 18 September note. The narrow gap between the downside case and the current price is the argument that risk and reward for Adani Green Energy shares looks favourable, though it depends on the assumptions.

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Why Jefferies Is Bullish on Adani Green Energy Shares

Capacity growth: Jefferies expects 6.5 to 6.8 GW of annual additions in FY28E to FY30E on a 44 GW capacity base, with Khavda over 65% of incremental additions by FY30E.
Valuation: 20 times forward EV/EBITDA after a 22% correction, with the premium to JSW Energy narrowing from 264% in January 2023 to 58%.
Demand: strong power demand and better utilisation from higher temperatures should largely offset higher interest costs.
Long-term contracts: most installed capacity is covered by long-term power purchase agreements, which supports cash flow visibility.
Power shortage risk: if El Niño persists into 2027, power shortages could help, and coal stocks are at critical levels of under seven days.

These are the brokerage’s arguments for Adani Green Energy shares, and each depends on execution and weather.

Adani Green Energy Shares and the Q1 FY27 Results

Measure	Q1 FY27	Change
Revenue from operations	Rs 4,663 crore	Up 16%
Revenue from power supply	Rs 4,280 crore	Up 29%
EBITDA from power supply	Rs 4,122 crore	Up 33%; margin 94%
Net profit	Rs 845 crore	Up 19% from Rs 713 crore
Cash profit	Rs 2,225 crore	Up from Rs 1,744 crore
Finance costs	Rs 2,001 crore	Up from Rs 1,525 crore, about 31% higher (my calculation)
Operational capacity	20,142 MW	Up 27%; 848 MW added in the quarter
Energy sales	13,657 million units	Up 30%

Profit grew slower than EBITDA because interest and depreciation rose with the new capacity. Other reports show slightly different net profit figures, so check the exchange filing for Adani Green Energy shares.

Khavda, Storage and Capex Plans

Item	Detail
Khavda capacity	10.3 GW operational, up from 5.6 GW a year earlier; target of 30 GW by 2029
FY27 target	5 GW of renewable capacity and more than 10,000 MWh of battery storage
Battery storage	3,551 MWh installed at June 2026, per the company; the Business Today article cites 6.6 GWh, so verify
2030 goal	50 GW of renewable capacity, including 5 GW of pumped storage
FY27E capex	About Rs 42,000 crore, per Jefferies in September
Net debt to EBITDA	Expected to fall from 8.9 times in FY26 to 7.1 times by FY30E

Jefferies notes that each 200 bps gain in solar utilisation adds about 20% to profits, which is why utilisation at Khavda matters so much for Adani Green Energy shares.

Promoter Funding and Balance Sheet

The promoter group subscribed to 6.3 crore warrants in 2024 at Rs 1,480.75 per share, with a planned equity investment of Rs 9,350 crore. The report says 25% was paid in 2024 and the balance between April and July 2025.

Debt remains high, with net debt at 8.9 times EBITDA in FY26, so the interest burden is a key variable for Adani Green Energy shares.

Risks for Adani Green Energy Shares

Interest costs: The RBI’s recent rate hike may raise interest costs, though Jefferies expects the drag to be limited.

Utilisation: Current utilisation is below Jefferies’ assumptions, so the upside depends on improvement.

Execution: Delays at Khavda or in transmission and aggressive bidding for projects can hurt returns.

High debt: Net debt of 8.9 times EBITDA leaves less room for error.

Target risk: A brokerage target is an opinion, and the 35% figure differs from the 34% implied by the price.

What to Watch Next for Adani Green Energy Shares

Q2 FY27 capacity additions and utilisation.
Progress at Khavda and the battery storage build.
Interest costs after the RBI rate hike.
Power demand and weather, including El Niño.
Any change in the Jefferies target or other brokerages’ views.

Conclusion

Adani Green Energy shares are up about 16% in six months, and Jefferies sees roughly 34% to 35% more upside to Rs 1,695, backed by 20 times forward EV/EBITDA and a 30% EBITDA CAGR. High debt, interest costs and utilisation are the swing factors. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decision.

Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Jefferies target price for Adani Green Energy shares?

Ans. Rs 1,695 with a Buy rating, based on 20 times EV/EBITDA. That is about 34% above Rs 1,269 (my calculation), and the report says 35%.

How much have Adani Green Energy shares returned?

Ans. Up about 16% in six months, after a correction of about 22% from the peak, per the headline and Jefferies.

Is Adani Green Energy valuation attractive?

Ans. Jefferies calls 20 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA reasonable given an expected 30% EBITDA CAGR over FY26 to FY30.

How did Adani Green do in Q1 FY27?

Ans. EBITDA from power supply rose 33% to Rs 4,122 crore, net profit rose 19% to Rs 845 crore and capacity rose 27% to 20,142 MW.

What is Khavda?

Ans. Khavda is Adani Green’s large renewable energy park in Gujarat, with 10.3 GW operational and a target of 30 GW by 2029.

What are the Jefferies upside and downside cases?

Ans. Rs 2,140 at 22 times, Rs 1,695 at 20 times and Rs 1,250 at 18 times EV/EBITDA, from the 18 September note.

What are the main risks for Adani Green Energy shares?

Ans. The RBI rate hike, utilisation below assumptions, execution delays at Khavda and high debt.

Should I buy Adani Green Energy shares after the Jefferies call?

Ans. This article does not constitute investment advice. Adani Green Energy shares are volatile. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor.

Author: Ankit Jaiswal

Ankit Jaiswal is the Senior Research Analyst at Univest, leading the platform's in-house equity research desk and serving as the editorial reviewer for all research and blog content published at univest.in. With 11+ years of experience in Indian equity markets, he oversees stock recommendations, earnings analysis, sector coverage, and ensures every published article meets SEBI Research Analyst Regulations. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com) from St. Xavier's College, Kolkata — one of India's most prestigious commerce institutions — and has cleared CMT Level 2 from the CMT Association, a globally recognised certification in technical analysis and market research. His research methodology combines fundamental analysis (earnings quality, balance sheet strength, management commentary) with advanced technical analysis (chart patterns, momentum indicators, market structure) — giving Univest's retail investors a dual-lens approach that most Indian research platforms lack. Ankit is among the most comprehensively certified analysts in Indian financial media, holding five NISM certifications: Series-XV (Research Analyst), Series-VIII (Equity Derivatives), Series-VII (SORM), Series-VI (Depository Operations), and Series-V-A (Mutual Fund Distributors). At Univest — India's SEBI-registered research and advisory platform — Ankit's responsibilities include leading the research team, finalising stock recommendations published across Pro Lite, Pro Super, and Pro Gold advisory services, and maintaining editorial oversight of all YMYL financial content published on the blog.