RBI May Hike the Repo Rate by 50-75 bps This Cycle, Says Bandhan Life’s Avinash Agarwal

Avinash Agarwal, Bandhan Life: RBI may hike the policy repo rate by 50-75 bps this cycle, among the more aggressive tightening forecasts.

The Reserve Bank of India may raise the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle, according to Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life, speaking to Moneycontrol’s Daily Voice column.

Agarwal’s forecast sits at the more aggressive end of the spectrum of RBI tightening estimates that have circulated in recent weeks, with the 50-75 basis point range implying either two hikes of roughly similar size or one larger move, depending on how the central bank chooses to sequence its response.

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How This Forecast Compares With Other Recent Views

Agarwal’s 50-75 basis point range is broadly in line with, though at the higher end of, forecasts from other economists who have separately projected two hikes over a similar timeframe, while it sits above more conservative estimates such as a single 25 basis point move floated by some rating agencies.

This spread of estimates, from a single modest hike to a cumulative 75 basis points, reflects genuine uncertainty about how much tightening will actually be needed, rather than a lack of consensus on direction, since virtually every recent forecast agrees the RBI’s extended pause is coming to an end.

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What Would Justify the More Aggressive End of This Range

A 50-75 basis point cumulative hike would typically be justified by a combination of persistently elevated inflation running well above the RBI’s comfort zone, sustained currency pressure requiring a wider interest rate differential to support the rupee, and continued strength in domestic demand that gives the central bank room to tighten without meaningfully denting growth.

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Agarwal’s framing suggests he sees enough of these pressures building simultaneously to warrant a more decisive policy response than the RBI has signalled through its recent pause, a view that will be tested against actual incoming inflation and currency data over the coming Monetary Policy Committee meetings.

What This Means for Rate-Sensitive Sectors

A tightening cycle at the more aggressive end of current forecasts would have meaningful implications for rate-sensitive sectors including real estate, auto financing and banking net interest margins, since borrowing costs across the economy would rise more than under the milder single-hike scenarios some other forecasters have floated.

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Investors in these sectors should treat the current spread of RBI forecasts, from 25 basis points to as much as 75, as a genuine range of plausible outcomes rather than a settled number, and should watch for how the central bank’s own communication evolves at its next policy review for a clearer signal.

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Conclusion

Avinash Agarwal’s forecast of a 50-75 basis point RBI rate hike this cycle sits at the more aggressive end of a widening range of tightening estimates, underscoring genuine disagreement on magnitude even as consensus builds around the direction of policy. Investors in rate-sensitive sectors should track upcoming inflation data and RBI commentary closely, and should consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before repositioning portfolios around rate expectations.

FAQs

What did Avinash Agarwal say about the RBI repo rate?

Ans. Avinash Agarwal of Bandhan Life said the RBI may hike the policy repo rate by 50 to 75 basis points this cycle.

How does this forecast compare with other RBI rate hike estimates?

Ans. It sits at the more aggressive end of the spectrum, above a more conservative single 25 basis point estimate from some rating agencies, though broadly in line with other forecasts projecting two hikes.

Who is Avinash Agarwal?

Ans. Avinash Agarwal is associated with Bandhan Life and shared this view in Moneycontrol’s Daily Voice column.

What factors would justify a 50-75 basis point rate hike?

Ans. Persistently elevated inflation, sustained currency pressure, and continued strength in domestic demand could together justify a more decisive tightening response from the RBI.

Which sectors are most exposed to a more aggressive RBI rate hike?

Ans. Real estate, auto financing and banking net interest margins are among the sectors most exposed to a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Is there consensus on the exact size of the expected RBI rate hike?

Ans. No. Estimates currently range from 25 basis points to as much as 75 basis points, though there is broader agreement that the RBI’s extended policy pause is ending.