HDFC Bank Share Price Target Set at Rs 950 as Nomura Maintains Buy After In Line Q1 FY27
- July 20, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
HDFC Bank share price target Rs 950 by Nomura, Buy maintained. CMP Rs 819.60, upside about 15.9%. Q1 FY27 PAT Rs 19,060 crore, up 5%. NIM 3.26%. Valuation 1.9x March FY28 BVPS.
The HDFC Bank share price target has been set at Rs 950 by global brokerage Nomura, which maintained its Buy rating on the stock after the lender reported an in line first quarter with improving growth momentum. Shares of HDFC Bank closed at Rs 819.60 on the NSE on Friday, 17 July 2026, which implies an upside of about 15.9 percent to the target.
The brokerage note followed the Q1 FY27 results announced on Saturday, 18 July 2026, in which India’s largest private lender posted a 5 percent rise in net profit to Rs 19,060 crore. This article breaks down the Nomura thesis, the quarterly numbers behind the HDFC Bank share price target, and the factors investors should weigh before acting on the call.
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Why Nomura Set the HDFC Bank Share Price Target at Rs 950
Nomura built its case on five pillars. First, the bank reported an in line quarter with improving growth momentum. Second, FCNR inflows are expected to accelerate growth in the coming quarters. Third, the margin declined quarter on quarter as expected, while profit after tax remained in line with estimates. Fourth, loan and deposit growth improved with pristine asset quality. Fifth, the valuation is maintained at 1.9 times March FY28 book value per share, which produces the HDFC Bank share price target of Rs 950.
Notably, the reported profit of Rs 19,060 crore came in ahead of Nomura’s own estimate of Rs 18,780 crore, giving the brokerage added confidence in the earnings trajectory even as system wide margin pressure persists.
HDFC Bank Q1 FY27 Results: The Numbers Behind the Target
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | Rs 19,060 crore | Up 5% YoY, up 9.8% adjusted |
| Net Interest Income | Rs 33,534 crore | Up 7% YoY |
| Net Interest Margin | 3.26% | 3.38% in Q4 FY26 |
| Gross Advances | Rs 30.60 lakh crore | Up 15.4% YoY |
| Average Deposits | Rs 30.11 lakh crore | Up 13% YoY |
| Gross NPA Ratio | 1.17% | 1.40% in Q1 FY26 |
| Net NPA Ratio | 0.41% | 0.47% in Q1 FY26 |
| Provisions | Rs 3,060 crore | Rs 14,441 crore in Q1 FY26 |
The quarter supports the constructive stance behind the HDFC Bank share price target. Net interest income rose 7 percent to Rs 33,534 crore, gross advances expanded 15.4 percent year on year to Rs 30.60 lakh crore, and asset quality stayed pristine with gross NPAs at 1.17 percent. Adjusted for the one time HDB Financial Services stake sale gain in the base quarter, profit growth was closer to 9.8 percent. Total credit cost stood at a comfortable 0.40 percent.
Should You Act on the Rs 950 Call? Ask a SEBI Registered Investment Advisor at Univest
The Margin Question and Why Nomura Looked Past It
The one soft spot in the quarter was profitability on assets. The net interest margin narrowed to 3.26 percent from 3.38 percent in the March quarter, its lowest level on record, as the cost of funds stayed sticky while asset yields drifted lower in a falling rate environment. Nomura flagged that the margin declined quarter on quarter as expected, meaning the compression was already built into its model for the HDFC Bank share price target.
The brokerage expects the drag to fade as deposits reprice lower through FY27 and as FCNR inflows accelerate balance sheet growth at attractive costs. With loan growth of 15.4 percent already outpacing the system and the credit deposit ratio normalising after the merger era, the earnings engine is positioned to reaccelerate once margins trough.
HDFC Bank Share Price Target vs Current Valuation
At Friday’s close of Rs 819.60, the stock trades below the 1.9 times March FY28 book value multiple that Nomura applies for its HDFC Bank share price target of Rs 950. The stock has lagged in 2026, falling more than 17 percent year to date, which has compressed the valuation to levels the brokerage finds attractive for a franchise with a 9,694 branch network, a Rs 43.97 lakh crore balance sheet and best in class asset quality.
The 15.9 percent implied upside also comes with a defensive cushion. Historically, HDFC Bank has commanded premium multiples during periods of margin recovery, and any positive surprise on NIM stabilisation could push the stock towards the target faster than the base case assumes.
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What the HDFC Bank Share Price Target Means for Different Investors
For long term investors, the HDFC Bank share price target frames the stock as a patience trade. The franchise metrics, a 15.4 percent loan growth, 13 percent deposit growth and record low NPAs, are intact, and the market is essentially waiting for the margin cycle to turn. Systematic accumulation on dips has historically worked well in this stock during valuation troughs.
For traders, the HDFC Bank share price target works better as a directional anchor than a short term signal. The stock tends to move in steps around quarterly results and margin data, so momentum entries above key resistance levels, with stops below recent swing lows, suit the current phase. Either way, the Rs 950 marker from Nomura gives both camps a clear reference for the months ahead, and position sizing should reflect that the HDFC Bank share price target is a 12 month view, not a near term guarantee.
Risks to the HDFC Bank Share Price Target
Three risks could delay the move to Rs 950. A longer than expected margin trough would compress earnings estimates, since NIM at 3.26 percent is already at a record low. A sharp rise in crude oil and inflation could force rates higher and slow credit demand across the system. Finally, sustained foreign selling in Indian financials would weigh on the stock regardless of fundamentals, given its heavyweight index position. Investors should size positions with these risks in mind and consult a SEBI registered advisor before taking exposure.
Conclusion
The HDFC Bank share price target of Rs 950 from Nomura rests on a simple argument, an in line quarter, improving loan and deposit growth, pristine asset quality and a valuation at 1.9 times March FY28 book value that leaves room for rerating. With the stock at Rs 819.60, the Buy call offers about 15.9 percent upside if the margin cycle turns as expected. The Q1 FY27 print did nothing to break the thesis, and the next two quarters of NIM data will decide how quickly the target comes into view.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions FAQs
What is the HDFC Bank share price target set by Nomura?
Ans. Nomura has set an HDFC Bank share price target of Rs 950 with a Buy rating, valuing the stock at 1.9 times March FY28 book value per share after the bank’s in line Q1 FY27 results.
How much upside does the HDFC Bank share price target imply?
Ans. With HDFC Bank shares closing at Rs 819.60 on 17 July 2026, the Rs 950 target implies an upside of about 15.9 percent from current levels.
How did HDFC Bank perform in Q1 FY27?
Ans. HDFC Bank reported a 5 percent rise in net profit to Rs 19,060 crore, net interest income growth of 7 percent to Rs 33,534 crore, gross advances up 15.4 percent and a gross NPA ratio of 1.17 percent for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Why did HDFC Bank margins decline in Q1 FY27?
Ans. The net interest margin narrowed to 3.26 percent from 3.38 percent in the March quarter because the cost of funds stayed elevated while asset yields declined in a falling rate environment. Nomura noted the decline was in line with expectations.
What are FCNR inflows and why do they matter for HDFC Bank?
Ans. FCNR deposits are foreign currency deposits from non resident Indians. In its note on the HDFC Bank share price target, Nomura expects these inflows to accelerate HDFC Bank’s growth by providing low cost funding, supporting both balance sheet expansion and margin recovery.
Is HDFC Bank asset quality a concern after Q1 FY27?
Ans. No, and this underpins the HDFC Bank share price target. Asset quality remained pristine, with gross NPAs at 1.17 percent versus 1.40 percent a year ago, net NPAs at 0.41 percent and total credit cost at just 0.40 percent for the quarter.
Should investors buy HDFC Bank at the current price?
Ans. Nomura’s HDFC Bank share price target of Rs 950 suggests meaningful upside, but the stock is down over 17 percent in 2026 and margins are at record lows. Investors should weigh the margin recovery timeline and consult a SEBI registered advisor before buying.
