National Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27
- July 1, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
National Fertilizers Rs 64.91 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 62.81 to Rs 98.30. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 71 cr against a loss.
Quick Answer
The National Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 60 to Rs 76, which is between 8 percent below and 17 percent above the last close of Rs 64.91, with bull and bear cases of Rs 100 to Rs 116 and Rs 30 to Rs 38. National Fertilizers reported Q1 FY27 standalone revenue up 27.3 percent to Rs 4,500 crore and a standalone profit of Rs 70.91 crore against a loss of Rs 32.10 crore a year ago, with consolidated profit at Rs 113.38 crore. Operating margin is only 3.6 percent, the stock is down 30 percent in a year to a 52-week low, and it trades at 8.7 times earnings with a 1.6 percent dividend yield. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario.
The National Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 60 to Rs 76 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 64.91 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 34.0 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 98.30 and 3.3 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 62.81, and the stock moved down 30.5 percent over the past year. National Fertilizers is a state-owned maker of urea and other fertilisers, majority owned by the Government of India. Debt to equity is 1.40 and the dividend yield is 1.60 percent.
Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results on 12 August showed a return to profit, the board recommended a Rs 1.04 dividend, and the stock fell about 14 percent from Rs 72.80 to a 52-week low of Rs 62.81. This National Fertilizers stock analysis covers the National Fertilizers share price today, the National Fertilizers share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a National Fertilizers buy or sell view.
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What Is the National Fertilizers Share Price Target for 2026?
The 2026 target for National Fertilizers shares is Rs 60 to Rs 76 in the Univest base case, which is -7.6% to +17.1% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 100 to Rs 116 and the bear case is Rs 30 to Rs 38. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.
National Fertilizers Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case
| Scenario | FY28E EPS | Target Multiple | Price Target (Rs) | Move vs Rs 64.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Rs 10.5 | 9.5x to 11x | 100 to 116 | +54.1% to +78.7% |
| Base Case | Rs 8 | 7.5x to 9.5x | 60 to 76 | -7.6% to +17.1% |
| Bear Case | Rs 5 | 6x to 7.5x | 30 to 38 | -53.8% to -41.5% |
FY28 EPS of Rs 8 in the base case compares with trailing EPS of Rs 7.43 and assumes steady urea volume and subsidy flows. Fertiliser makers trade at low multiples because earnings follow subsidy and gas costs, and the stock trades at about 8 times the base estimate. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the National Fertilizers share price target range around the current price.
National Fertilizers Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026
National Fertilizers share price today is Rs 64.91 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 3,181 crore, and the stock trades at 8.7 times earnings against an industry average of 21.7 times. The Univest base case National Fertilizers share price target of Rs 60 to Rs 76 is -7.6% to +17.1% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the National Fertilizers share price target.
| Parameter | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NSE Ticker | NFL | BSE code 523630 |
| Sector | Fertilisers (urea) | Per Univest sector classification |
| Last Close (NSE) | Rs 64.91 | 6 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-Week High | Rs 98.30 | CMP is 34.0% below |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 62.81 | CMP is 3.3% above |
| 1-Year Return | About -30% | Weekly close Rs 93.35 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 64.91 |
| Market Capitalisation | Rs 3,181 crore | Small cap state-owned fertiliser maker |
| Trailing P/E | About 8.7x | Industry P/E about 21.70x |
| P/B Ratio | About 1.12x | Book value Rs 57.91 per share |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 7.43 | Trailing twelve months |
| Return on Equity | About 7.4% | Debt to equity 1.40 |
| Dividend Yield | About 1.6% | Rs 1.04 per share final dividend |
| 12-Month Target (Base Case) | Rs 60 to Rs 76 | Univest base case |
| Bull Case | Rs 100 to Rs 116 | +54.1% to +78.7% |
| Bear Case | Rs 30 to Rs 38 | -53.8% to -41.5% |
Track live price, fundamentals and results for National Fertilizers on the Univest Screener.
How Did National Fertilizers Perform in Q1 FY27?
National Fertilizers reported Q1 FY27 standalone revenue from operations of Rs 4,500.39 crore, up 27.3 percent from Rs 3,534.17 crore, and a standalone net profit of Rs 70.91 crore against a loss of Rs 32.10 crore. Consolidated profit was Rs 113.38 crore, including Rs 42.47 crore from joint ventures. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the National Fertilizers share price target.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Standalone Revenue | Rs 4,500.39 crore | Up 27.3% YoY |
| Standalone Net Profit | Rs 70.91 crore | Against a loss of Rs 32.10 crore |
| Consolidated Net Profit | Rs 113.38 crore | Against a loss of Rs 39.44 crore |
| Operating Margin | 3.63% | Net margin 1.58% |
| Manufactured Fertilisers | Rs 3,883.7 crore | Traded imports Rs 232.9 crore |
| Debt to Equity | 1.39 | Standalone |
Profit fell from Rs 118.19 crore in Q4 FY26. The company also recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.04 a share for FY26, and FY26 profit rose 124 percent to Rs 232.67 crore on turnover of Rs 21,230 crore.
The company also reported that Government of India support through subsidy realisation is the main swing factor for quarterly profit. Its units produce urea and neem coated urea, and its traded business imports other fertilisers for sale through the same dealer network. Q1 is usually a seasonal quarter because of the monsoon sowing cycle, which makes the year on year comparison the more useful reading.
The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the National Fertilizers share price target.
Why Is National Fertilizers Share Price Down 30 Percent in a Year?
National Fertilizers shares are down about 30 percent in a year because margins are thin and the market doubts that the turnaround will last. The stock is 34 percent below the Rs 98.30 high of the week of 13 October 2025.
It fell for five straight weeks to Rs 62.81 in the week of 28 September, even after the Q1 turnaround, when it traded at Rs 72.80 on 12 August. A spike on 6.45 crore shares in the week of 9 March faded within weeks. The National Fertilizers share price target scenarios below account for that move.
Key Catalysts for the National Fertilizers Share Price Target in 2026
4 catalysts matter most for the National Fertilizers share price target, and sector tailwinds in Fertilisers (urea) are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.
1. Turnaround Profit
The company moved from a loss to a profit of Rs 70.91 crore. A repeat would show the turnaround is lasting. If it plays out, the National Fertilizers share price target moves toward the top of the base range.
2. Urea Volume
FY26 turnover reached Rs 21,230 crore and sales volume rose to 65.2 lakh tonnes. Record urea sales support revenue. Strength here would support the upper end of the National Fertilizers share price target.
3. Joint Venture Income
Joint ventures added Rs 42.47 crore to consolidated profit. They give a second source of earnings. Delivery on this point keeps the National Fertilizers share price target on track.
4. Dividend
A final dividend of Rs 1.04 a share was recommended. Payout supports a 1.6 percent yield. Better news here would lift the National Fertilizers share price target toward the bull case.
What Are the Key Risks to the National Fertilizers Share Price Target?
The main risks are subsidy delays, gas costs, thin margins and debt. Each can pull the National Fertilizers share price target lower.
Subsidy Delays
Earnings depend on government subsidy payments. Late payments raise borrowing and cut profit. If it materialises, the National Fertilizers share price target would slip toward the bear case.
Gas Costs
Gas is the main raw material for urea. A price spike would cut the 3.6 percent margin. This is the main downside risk to the National Fertilizers share price target.
Thin Margins
A 1.6 percent net margin leaves little buffer. A bear case EPS of Rs 5 at 6 times would put the price near Rs 30. A worsening here would cut the National Fertilizers share price target toward the low end of the range.
Debt
Debt to equity is 1.40. Higher interest would eat into profit. Watch it closely, because it can pull the National Fertilizers share price target lower quickly.
National Fertilizers Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target
National Fertilizers stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 62.81 to Rs 68.90 since mid-September, with the stock at the lower end.
The first support level is Rs 62.81 to Rs 63.10, the lows of the weeks of 28 September and 5 October. Below that, Rs 63.35 was the March low, and there is no weekly support below the 52-week low.
The first resistance level is Rs 65.25 to Rs 66.34, the highs of the weeks of 5 and 28 September. Above that, Rs 68 to Rs 68.90 marks the September highs and Rs 71 to Rs 75 marks the August levels. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term National Fertilizers share price target.
National Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term
Short-Term National Fertilizers Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)
In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 62.81 and Rs 68.90, from the 52-week low to the early-September high. A close above Rs 66.34 would put Rs 68.90 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 62.81 would open a fresh 52-week low. The Q2 FY27 results are the main trigger. This range anchors the near-term National Fertilizers share price target.
12-Month and 2027 National Fertilizers Share Price Target
The 12-month target price is Rs 60 to Rs 76, valued on 7.5 to 9.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 8. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 30 in the bear case to Rs 116 in the bull case.
Long-Term National Fertilizers Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030
For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 71 to Rs 104. This assumes EPS of Rs 9.5 in FY29 and Rs 11 in FY30 and a multiple of 7.5 to 9.5 times. It needs subsidy payments on time, steady urea output and gas costs under control. This is the long-term National Fertilizers share price target in the Univest scenarios.
Bull Case and Bear Case for National Fertilizers Share Price Target
Bull Case Rs 100 to Rs 116
The bull case of Rs 100 to Rs 116 for the National Fertilizers share price target needs EPS of Rs 10.5 and the market to pay 9.5 to 11 times for it. It is +54.1% to +78.7% from the last close.
Bear Case Rs 30 to Rs 38
The bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 38 for the National Fertilizers share price target equals 6 to 7.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 5 and sits below the Rs 62.81 low. It is -53.8% to -41.5% from the last close.
Is National Fertilizers a Good Buy at Rs 64.91? National Fertilizers Buy or Sell View
Whether National Fertilizers is a buy at Rs 64.91 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 8 percent below and 17 percent above the current price, the stock is 34 percent below its high, and the open question is margin. The National Fertilizers share price target range is the starting point for that decision.
Long-term holders may focus on subsidy flows, gas costs and the dividend, and treat Rs 62.81 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 66.34. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this National Fertilizers buy or sell view is educational.
How to Invest in National Fertilizers Shares
Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest National Fertilizers share price target range on the Univest Screener.
Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any National Fertilizers share price target.
Step 3: Search for NFL on the NSE or 523630 on the BSE in your trading app.
Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 30 is bearable.
Step 5: Track subsidy payments, gas costs and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the National Fertilizers share price target.
Conclusion
National Fertilizers closed at Rs 64.91 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 60 to Rs 76, a bull case of Rs 100 to Rs 116 and a bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 38. Q1 FY27 delivered revenue growth of 27.3 percent and a return to profit of Rs 70.91 crore, with operating margin at 3.63 percent. The main risks are subsidy delays, gas costs and thin margins.
The stock is 34.0 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 8 percent below and 17 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are subsidy payments, gas costs and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 62.81 and Rs 66.34 levels. Re-check the National Fertilizers share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track National Fertilizers live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on National Fertilizers Share Price Target 2026
What is the National Fertilizers share price target for 2026?
Ans. The National Fertilizers share price target for 2026 is Rs 60 to Rs 76 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 100 to Rs 116 and a bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 38. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.
What is the National Fertilizers share price target for 2027?
Ans. The National Fertilizers share price target for 2027 is Rs 60 to Rs 76 in the base case, valued on 7.5 to 9.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 8. The scenario range runs from Rs 30 to Rs 116.
Is National Fertilizers a good buy at Rs 64.91?
Ans. Whether National Fertilizers is a good buy at Rs 64.91 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the National Fertilizers share price target. The multiple is low and the company turned profitable, but margins are thin and the stock is at a 52-week low. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
What are the key risks to the National Fertilizers share price target?
Ans. The key risks to the National Fertilizers share price target are subsidy delays, gas costs, thin margins and debt. Earnings depend on government subsidy payments. Late payments raise borrowing and cut profit.
What are the key catalysts for the National Fertilizers share price target?
Ans. The key catalysts for the National Fertilizers share price target are turnaround profit, urea volume, joint venture income and dividend. The company moved from a loss to a profit of Rs 70.91 crore. A repeat would show the turnaround is lasting.
Where can I track National Fertilizers share price today and National Fertilizers share price target updates?
Ans. You can track the live National Fertilizers share price, results and any change to the National Fertilizers share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.
What are National Fertilizers’s 52-week high and low?
Ans. National Fertilizers’s 52-week high is Rs 98.30 and its 52-week low is Rs 62.81, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 64.91 the stock is 34.0 percent below the high and 3.3 percent above the low. Both levels frame the National Fertilizers share price target.
How to buy National Fertilizers shares?
Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for NFL on the NSE or 523630 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the National Fertilizers share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 30 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.
