National Aluminium Company Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27
- July 1, 2026
- Posted by: Neeraj Pandey
- Category: News
NALCO Rs 337.25 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 216 to Rs 445.15. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 2,002 cr, up 88%.
Quick Answer
The National Aluminium Company share price target for 2026 is Rs 315 to Rs 399, which is between 7 percent below and 18 percent above the last close of Rs 337.25, with bull and bear cases of Rs 468 to Rs 546 and Rs 168 to Rs 210. National Aluminium Company reported record Q1 FY27 net profit up 88 percent to Rs 2,002 crore on revenue up 39 percent to Rs 5,302 crore, with EBITDA margin at 51.1 percent against 39.2 percent a year ago. Aluminium revenue rose 43 percent on global prices, the company set first-quarter records for bauxite, alumina and sales, and the stock trades at 9 times earnings with a 3.4 percent dividend yield. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario.
The National Aluminium Company share price target for 2026 is Rs 315 to Rs 399 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 337.25 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 24.2 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 445.15 and 56.1 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 216.00, and the stock moved up 50.4 percent over the past year. National Aluminium Company, or NALCO, is a Navratna state-owned producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminium under the Ministry of Mines. It has no debt and pays a dividend yield of 3.41 percent.
Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results on 31 July showed record profit, the stock hit Rs 422.20 in the week of 10 August on volume of 7.3 crore shares, and it then fell 20 percent to Rs 329.50. This National Aluminium Company stock analysis covers the National Aluminium Company share price today, the National Aluminium Company share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a National Aluminium Company buy or sell view.
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What Is the National Aluminium Company Share Price Target for 2026?
The 2026 target for National Aluminium Company shares is Rs 315 to Rs 399 in the Univest base case, which is -6.6% to +18.3% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 468 to Rs 546 and the bear case is Rs 168 to Rs 210. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.
National Aluminium Company Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case
| Scenario | FY28E EPS | Target Multiple | Price Target (Rs) | Move vs Rs 337.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Rs 52 | 9x to 10.5x | 468 to 546 | +38.8% to +61.9% |
| Base Case | Rs 42 | 7.5x to 9.5x | 315 to 399 | -6.6% to +18.3% |
| Bear Case | Rs 28 | 6x to 7.5x | 168 to 210 | -50.2% to -37.7% |
FY28 EPS of Rs 42 in the base case compares with trailing EPS of Rs 36.76 and is close to the annualised Q1 level of about Rs 43, as it assumes aluminium prices ease from the Q1 peak. Metals stocks trade at 7 to 10 times earnings, and the stock trades at about 8 times the base estimate. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the National Aluminium Company share price target range around the current price.
National Aluminium Company Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026
National Aluminium Company share price today is Rs 337.25 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 61,858 crore, and the stock trades at 9.2 times earnings against an industry average of 12.9 times. The Univest base case National Aluminium Company share price target of Rs 315 to Rs 399 is -6.6% to +18.3% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the National Aluminium Company share price target.
| Parameter | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NSE Ticker | NATIONALUM | BSE code 532234 |
| Sector | Aluminium and alumina | Per Univest sector classification |
| Last Close (NSE) | Rs 337.25 | 6 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-Week High | Rs 445.15 | CMP is 24.2% below |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 216.00 | CMP is 56.1% above |
| 1-Year Return | About +50% | Weekly close Rs 224.3 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 337.25 |
| Market Capitalisation | Rs 61,858 crore | Large cap metals producer |
| Trailing P/E | About 9.2x | Industry P/E about 12.85x |
| P/B Ratio | About 2.86x | Book value Rs 117.63 per share |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 36.76 | Trailing twelve months |
| Return on Equity | About 26.8% | Debt to equity 0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | About 3.41% | Dividend paid yearly |
| 12-Month Target (Base Case) | Rs 315 to Rs 399 | Univest base case |
| Bull Case | Rs 468 to Rs 546 | +38.8% to +61.9% |
| Bear Case | Rs 168 to Rs 210 | -50.2% to -37.7% |
Track live price, fundamentals and results for National Aluminium Company on the Univest Screener.
How Did National Aluminium Company Perform in Q1 FY27?
National Aluminium Company reported Q1 FY27 net profit of Rs 2,002.38 crore, up 88 percent from Rs 1,063.86 crore, on revenue from operations of Rs 5,302.38 crore, up 39 percent. Profit before tax rose 87 percent to Rs 2,649.66 crore. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the National Aluminium Company share price target.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | Rs 2,002.38 crore | Up 88% from Rs 1,063.86 crore |
| Revenue from Operations | Rs 5,302.38 crore | Up 39% YoY |
| EBITDA Margin | 51.1% | Against 39.2% a year ago |
| Aluminium Revenue | Rs 4,184.8 crore | Up 43% YoY |
| Chemicals Revenue | Rs 1,569.9 crore | Down 3.6% YoY |
| Bauxite Excavation | 19.52 lakh tonnes | Highest ever for a first quarter |
Calcined alumina production of 5.77 lakh tonnes and alumina and hydrate sales of 3.47 lakh tonnes were also first-quarter records. The company targets 25 lakh tonnes of alumina and 4.73 lakh tonnes of aluminium metal in FY27 and plans to lift alumina capacity to 3.2 million tonnes by FY28. The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the National Aluminium Company share price target.
Why Is NALCO Share Price 24 Percent Below Its April High?
NALCO shares are about 24 percent below the Rs 445.15 high of the week of 27 April 2026, even though the stock is up 50 percent in a year. It fell 11.7 percent in the week of 22 June and 6.6 percent in the week of 28 September.
After a rise to Rs 422.20 in the week of 10 August on the Q1 results, the stock gave back gains as aluminium prices cooled and investors took profit. It closed at Rs 337.25 near the Rs 329.50 low of the week of 28 September. The National Aluminium Company share price target scenarios below account for that move.
Key Catalysts for the National Aluminium Company Share Price Target in 2026
4 catalysts matter most for the National Aluminium Company share price target, and sector tailwinds in Aluminium and alumina are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.
1. Aluminium Prices
Aluminium revenue rose 43 percent on favourable global prices. Firm prices lift margin fast. If it plays out, the National Aluminium Company share price target moves toward the top of the base range.
2. Record Volumes
First-quarter bauxite, alumina and sales volumes were the highest ever. Scale lowers unit cost. Strength here would support the upper end of the National Aluminium Company share price target.
3. Alumina Expansion
The company plans alumina capacity of 3.2 million tonnes by FY28 with higher capex. More alumina adds export revenue. Delivery on this point keeps the National Aluminium Company share price target on track.
4. Cash Returns
NALCO has no debt and yields 3.4 percent. A final dividend for FY26 was considered at the 31 July board. Better news here would lift the National Aluminium Company share price target toward the bull case.
What Are the Key Risks to the National Aluminium Company Share Price Target?
The main risks are a fall in aluminium prices, rising power and coal costs, project delays and policy on pricing. Each can pull the National Aluminium Company share price target lower.
Aluminium Price Fall
Profit depends on London Metal Exchange prices. A 15 percent fall would cut EBITDA sharply. If it materialises, the National Aluminium Company share price target would slip toward the bear case.
Power and Coal Costs
Energy is a large cost. Lower captive coal use would raise costs. This is the main downside risk to the National Aluminium Company share price target.
Project Delays
The expansion needs heavy capex. Delays would defer growth. A worsening here would cut the National Aluminium Company share price target toward the low end of the range.
Valuation Reset
A bear case EPS of Rs 28 at 6 times would put the price near Rs 168. Watch it closely, because it can pull the National Aluminium Company share price target lower quickly.
National Aluminium Company Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target
National Aluminium Company stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 329 to Rs 364 since mid-September, with the stock near the lower end.
The first support level is Rs 329.50 to Rs 333.35, the lows of the weeks of 28 September and 5 October. Below that, Rs 331 was the low of the week of 22 June, and a weekly close under Rs 329.50 would weaken the base.
The first resistance level is Rs 348.65 to Rs 354.75, the highs of the weeks of 5 and 28 September. Above that, Rs 361 to Rs 364 marks the September highs and Rs 385 to Rs 405 marks the August levels. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term National Aluminium Company share price target.
National Aluminium Company Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term
Short-Term National Aluminium Company Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)
In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 329 and Rs 364, from the late-September low to the mid-September high. A close above Rs 355 would put Rs 364 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 329.50 would put Rs 310 in play. The Q2 FY27 results are the main trigger. This range anchors the near-term National Aluminium Company share price target.
12-Month and 2027 National Aluminium Company Share Price Target
The 12-month target price is Rs 315 to Rs 399, valued on 7.5 to 9.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 42. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 168 in the bear case to Rs 546 in the bull case.
Long-Term National Aluminium Company Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030
For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 322 to Rs 468. This assumes EPS of Rs 46 in FY29 and Rs 52 in FY30 and a multiple of 7 to 9 times. It needs aluminium prices to hold near current levels and the alumina expansion to be delivered. This is the long-term National Aluminium Company share price target in the Univest scenarios.
Bull Case and Bear Case for National Aluminium Company Share Price Target
Bull Case Rs 468 to Rs 546
The bull case of Rs 468 to Rs 546 for the National Aluminium Company share price target needs EPS of Rs 52 and the market to pay 9 to 10.5 times for it. It is +38.8% to +61.9% from the last close.
Bear Case Rs 168 to Rs 210
The bear case of Rs 168 to Rs 210 for the National Aluminium Company share price target equals 6 to 7.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 28 and sits below the Rs 216 low. It is -50.2% to -37.7% from the last close.
Is National Aluminium Company a Good Buy at Rs 337? National Aluminium Company Buy or Sell View
Whether National Aluminium Company is a buy at Rs 337.25 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 7 percent below and 18 percent above the current price, the stock is 24 percent below its high, and the open question is aluminium prices. The National Aluminium Company share price target range is the starting point for that decision.
Long-term holders may focus on aluminium prices, alumina volume and the dividend, and treat Rs 329.50 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 355. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this National Aluminium Company buy or sell view is educational.
How to Invest in National Aluminium Company Shares
Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest National Aluminium Company share price target range on the Univest Screener.
Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any National Aluminium Company share price target.
Step 3: Search for NATIONALUM on the NSE or 532234 on the BSE in your trading app.
Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 168 is bearable.
Step 5: Track aluminium prices, alumina volume and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the National Aluminium Company share price target.
Conclusion
National Aluminium Company closed at Rs 337.25 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 315 to Rs 399, a bull case of Rs 468 to Rs 546 and a bear case of Rs 168 to Rs 210. Q1 FY27 delivered record profit of Rs 2,002 crore, up 88 percent, with EBITDA margin at 51.1 percent. The main risks are aluminium prices, energy costs and project delays.
The stock is 24.2 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 7 percent below and 18 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are aluminium prices, alumina volume and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 329.50 and Rs 354.75 levels. Re-check the National Aluminium Company share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track National Aluminium Company live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on National Aluminium Company Share Price Target 2026
What is the National Aluminium Company share price target for 2026?
Ans. The National Aluminium Company share price target for 2026 is Rs 315 to Rs 399 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 468 to Rs 546 and a bear case of Rs 168 to Rs 210. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.
What is the National Aluminium Company share price target for 2027?
Ans. The National Aluminium Company share price target for 2027 is Rs 315 to Rs 399 in the base case, valued on 7.5 to 9.5 times FY28 EPS of Rs 42. The scenario range runs from Rs 168 to Rs 546.
Is National Aluminium Company a good buy at Rs 337.25?
Ans. Whether National Aluminium Company is a good buy at Rs 337.25 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the National Aluminium Company share price target. Profit and margin are at records with a low multiple and a 3.4 percent yield, but earnings depend on aluminium prices. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
What are the key risks to the National Aluminium Company share price target?
Ans. The key risks to the National Aluminium Company share price target are aluminium price fall, power and coal costs, project delays and valuation reset. Profit depends on London Metal Exchange prices. A 15 percent fall would cut EBITDA sharply.
What are the key catalysts for the National Aluminium Company share price target?
Ans. The key catalysts for the National Aluminium Company share price target are aluminium prices, record volumes, alumina expansion and cash returns. Aluminium revenue rose 43 percent on favourable global prices. Firm prices lift margin fast.
Where can I track National Aluminium Company share price today and National Aluminium Company share price target updates?
Ans. You can track the live National Aluminium Company share price, results and any change to the National Aluminium Company share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.
What are National Aluminium Company’s 52-week high and low?
Ans. National Aluminium Company’s 52-week high is Rs 445.15 and its 52-week low is Rs 216.00, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 337.25 the stock is 24.2 percent below the high and 56.1 percent above the low. Both levels frame the National Aluminium Company share price target.
How to buy National Aluminium Company shares?
Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for NATIONALUM on the NSE or 532234 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the National Aluminium Company share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 168 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.
