ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27
- June 26, 2026
- Posted by: Lakshit Sharma
- Category: News
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Rs 2,172.20 (7 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 2,050 to Rs 3,044 (bonus-adjusted). Q1 FY27 revenue Rs 1,066 cr, up 9.3%; profit Rs 104.5 cr, down 14.6%.
Quick Answer
The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2026 is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392, which is between 9 percent below and 10 percent above the last close of Rs 2,172.20, with bull and bear cases of Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 and Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368. ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India reported Q1 FY27 revenue from operations of Rs 1,066 crore, up 9.3 percent, and profit of Rs 104.48 crore, down 14.6 percent, while adjusted profit before tax rose 16.9 percent. The profit fall came from a one-time gain of about Rs 43.7 crore last year, a 5 for 1 bonus issue was allotted on 25 June 2026, and the stock trades at 49.5 times earnings. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 7 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario.
The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2026 is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 2,172.20 at the 7 October 2026 close. That is 28.6 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 3,044.00 and 5.9 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 2,050.33, and the stock moved down 2.2 percent over the past year. ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India, formerly Wabco India, makes braking and control systems for commercial vehicles and is a subsidiary of the ZF group. Debt to equity is 0.01 and the dividend yield is 0.03 percent.
Three things changed since the last update: the 5 for 1 bonus was allotted on 25 June 2026, Q1 FY27 results on 24 July showed adjusted profit up 17 percent, and the stock fell in most weeks since August to Rs 2,149. This ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India stock analysis covers the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price today, the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India buy or sell view.
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What Is the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target for 2026?
The 2026 target for ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India shares is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 in the Univest base case, which is -9.0% to +10.1% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 and the bear case is Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 7 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case
| Scenario | FY28E EPS | Target Multiple | Price Target (Rs) | Move vs Rs 2,172.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Rs 63 | 46x to 52x | 2,898 to 3,276 | +33.4% to +50.8% |
| Base Case | Rs 52 | 38x to 46x | 1,976 to 2,392 | -9.0% to +10.1% |
| Bear Case | Rs 38 | 30x to 36x | 1,140 to 1,368 | -47.5% to -37.0% |
FY28 EPS of Rs 52 in the base case, on the post-bonus share count, compares with trailing EPS of Rs 43.87 and assumes revenue growth near 10 percent with margin near 15 percent. Auto component names with this profile trade at 38 to 46 times earnings, and the stock trades at about 42 times the base estimate. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target range around the current price.
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 7 October 2026
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price today is Rs 2,172.20 on the NSE at the 7 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 8 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 24,711 crore, and the stock trades at 49.5 times earnings against an industry average of 37.2 times. The Univest base case ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target of Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 is -9.0% to +10.1% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
| Parameter | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NSE Ticker | ZFCVINDIA | BSE code 533023 |
| Sector | Commercial vehicle braking systems | Per Univest sector classification |
| Last Close (NSE) | Rs 2,172.20 | 7 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-Week High | Rs 3,044.00 | CMP is 28.6% below |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 2,050.33 | CMP is 5.9% above |
| 1-Year Return | About -2% | Weekly close Rs 2222 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 2172.2 |
| Market Capitalisation | Rs 24,711 crore | Small cap auto component company |
| Trailing P/E | About 49.5x | Industry P/E about 37.24x |
| P/B Ratio | About 6.70x | Book value Rs 324.29 per share |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 43.87 | Trailing twelve months |
| Return on Equity | About 14.0% | Debt to equity 0.01 |
| Dividend Yield | About 0.03% | Very small dividend |
| 12-Month Target (Base Case) | Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 | Univest base case |
| Bull Case | Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 | +33.4% to +50.8% |
| Bear Case | Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368 | -47.5% to -37.0% |
How Did ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Perform in Q1 FY27?
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India reported Q1 FY27 revenue from operations of Rs 1,066.18 crore, up 9.3 percent from Rs 975.56 crore, and profit before tax of Rs 140.05 crore. Profit after tax was Rs 104.48 crore, down 14.6 percent. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rs 1,066.18 crore | Up 9.3% from Rs 975.56 crore |
| Profit Before Tax | Rs 140.05 crore | Against Rs 164.15 crore; adjusted up 16.9% |
| Profit After Tax | Rs 104.48 crore | Down 14.6% |
| Aftermarket Sales | Rs 158.4 crore | Up 15.6%; record June at Rs 63.06 crore |
| Export Revenue | Rs 271.4 crore | Up 9.7% |
| Segment Growth | 8.6% | Above 6 tonne vehicles against 8.4% industry |
Profit fell because last year included a one-time gain of about Rs 43.7 crore from forex and other items, and excluding it profit before tax rose 16.9 percent to Rs 140.8 crore. Management flagged volatility in aluminium, chemical, rubber and plastic costs and positioned the company for the next commercial vehicle safety regulation cycle. The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
Why Is ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Down 29 Percent From Its High?
The shares, adjusted for the 5 for 1 bonus, are about 29 percent below the Rs 3,044 spike of the week of 22 June 2026 and down about 3 percent in a year. That week traded 20 lakh shares and closed at Rs 2,616 with no cause confirmed, just before the bonus record date of 24 June.
The stock fell 7.6 percent in the following week, rose 9 percent in the week of 3 August around Q1 results, then slid from Rs 2,662 to Rs 2,149. It closed at Rs 2,172.20, about 6 percent above the November 2025 low of Rs 2,050. The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target scenarios below account for that move.
Key Catalysts for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target in 2026
4 catalysts matter most for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target, and sector tailwinds in Commercial vehicle braking systems are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.
1. Aftermarket Growth
Aftermarket sales rose 15.6 percent to Rs 158.4 crore with a record June. This income is steadier than OEM sales. If it plays out, the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target moves toward the top of the base range.
2. Safety Regulation
Management expects new commercial vehicle safety rules to raise content per vehicle. This lifts demand for braking systems. Strength here would support the upper end of the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
3. Exports
Export revenue rose 9.7 percent to Rs 271.4 crore. It diversifies away from India demand. Delivery on this point keeps the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target on track.
4. Strong Balance Sheet
Debt to equity is 0.01. The company funds growth from cash flow. Better news here would lift the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target toward the bull case.
What Are the Key Risks to the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target?
The main risks are valuation, input costs, a commercial vehicle slowdown and a high earnings base. Each can pull the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target lower.
Rich Valuation
The stock trades at 49.5 times earnings and 6.7 times book. A miss would cut the multiple. If it materialises, the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target would slip toward the bear case.
Input Costs
Aluminium, rubber, chemicals and plastics are volatile. Cost spikes would hurt margin. This is the main downside risk to the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
Cycle Slowdown
Sales follow commercial vehicle output. A downturn would cut volume. A worsening here would cut the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target toward the low end of the range.
Earnings Reset
A bear case EPS of Rs 38 at 30 times would put the price near Rs 1,140. Watch it closely, because it can pull the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target lower quickly.
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 2,134 to Rs 2,560 since mid-September, with the stock near the lower end.
The first support level is Rs 2,134.10, the low of the week of 5 October. Below that, Rs 2,050.33 is the 52-week low of the week of 3 November 2025.
The first resistance level is Rs 2,269.80, the high of the week of 5 October. Above that, Rs 2,354 to Rs 2,394 marks the highs of the weeks of 28 and 21 September. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term
Short-Term ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)
In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 2,134 and Rs 2,270. A close above Rs 2,270 would put Rs 2,354 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 2,134 would open a test of Rs 2,050. Q2 FY27 results and commercial vehicle volumes are the main triggers. This range anchors the near-term ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
12-Month and 2027 ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target
The 12-month target price is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392, valued on 38 to 46 times FY28 EPS of Rs 52. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 1,140 in the bear case to Rs 3,276 in the bull case.
Long-Term ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030
For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 2,356 to Rs 3,256. This assumes EPS of Rs 62 in FY29 and Rs 74 in FY30 and a multiple of 38 to 44 times. It needs commercial vehicle demand to hold, safety regulation to lift content per vehicle and aftermarket and export sales to keep growing. This is the long-term ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target in the Univest scenarios.
Bull Case and Bear Case for ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target
Bull Case Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276
The bull case of Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target needs EPS of Rs 63 and the market to pay 46 to 52 times for it. It is +33.4% to +50.8% from the last close.
Bear Case Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368
The bear case of Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368 for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target equals 30 to 36 times FY28 EPS of Rs 38 and sits below the Rs 2050.33 low. It is -47.5% to -37.0% from the last close.
Is ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India a Good Buy at Rs 2,172? ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Buy or Sell View
Whether ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India is a buy at Rs 2,172.20 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 9 percent below and 10 percent above the current price, the stock is 29 percent below its high, and the open question is how fast safety regulation lifts content per vehicle. The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target range is the starting point for that decision.
Long-term holders may focus on aftermarket growth, safety rules and margin, and treat Rs 2,050 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 2,270. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India buy or sell view is educational.
How to Invest in ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Shares
Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target range on the Univest Screener.
Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
Step 3: Search for ZFCVINDIA on the NSE or 533023 on the BSE in your trading app.
Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 1,140 is bearable.
Step 5: Track aftermarket growth, input costs and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
Conclusion
ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India closed at Rs 2,172.20 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392, a bull case of Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 and a bear case of Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368. Q1 FY27 delivered revenue up 9.3 percent and adjusted profit before tax up 16.9 percent. The main risks are valuation, input costs and a commercial vehicle slowdown.
The stock is 28.6 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 9 percent below and 10 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are aftermarket growth, input costs and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 2,134 and Rs 2,270 levels. Re-check the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Share Price Target 2026
What is the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2026?
Ans. The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2026 is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 2,898 to Rs 3,276 and a bear case of Rs 1,140 to Rs 1,368. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 7 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.
What is the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2027?
Ans. The ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target for 2027 is Rs 1,976 to Rs 2,392 in the base case, valued on 38 to 46 times FY28 EPS of Rs 52. The scenario range runs from Rs 1,140 to Rs 3,276.
Is ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India a good buy at Rs 2,172.20?
Ans. Whether ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India is a good buy at Rs 2,172.20 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target. Adjusted profit is rising and the balance sheet is strong, but reported profit fell and the stock trades at 49.5 times earnings against an industry average near 37 times. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
What are the key risks to the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target?
Ans. The key risks to the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target are rich valuation, input costs, cycle slowdown and earnings reset. The stock trades at 49.5 times earnings and 6.7 times book. A miss would cut the multiple.
What are the key catalysts for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target?
Ans. The key catalysts for the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target are aftermarket growth, safety regulation, exports and strong balance sheet. Aftermarket sales rose 15.6 percent to Rs 158.4 crore with a record June. This income is steadier than OEM sales.
Where can I track ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price today and ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target updates?
Ans. You can track the live ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price, results and any change to the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.
What are ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India’s 52-week high and low?
Ans. ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India’s 52-week high is Rs 3,044.00 and its 52-week low is Rs 2,050.33, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 2,172.20 the stock is 28.6 percent below the high and 5.9 percent above the low. Both levels frame the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target.
How to buy ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India shares?
Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for ZFCVINDIA on the NSE or 533023 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 1,140 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.