Brent Crude Oil Falls Below $90 Per Barrel After Trump Says US-Iran Deal Could Be Signed This Weekend — What It Means for India
- June 12, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: News
Brent crude: settled $90.38 (-2.97%) June 11; fell to $89.15 (-4.2%) in extended trading after Trump’s Oval Office comments. WTI: settled $87.71, extended $86.51 (-3.9%). Trump (June 11): ‘Made a great settlement with Iran, subject to finalization of documents.’ Deal could be signed this weekend. Brent peaked at $140+ in April 2026 (Strait closure).
Oil prices fell below the critical $90 per barrel threshold on Thursday, June 11, and extended its decline in Asian trading on June 12, 2026, after US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the United States and Iran had reached “a great settlement of the war” that is “subject to finalization of documents.” Trump indicated the deal could be signed as early as this weekend. Brent crude had settled at $90.38 (down 2.97%) in the US session and fell further to approximately $89.15 (down 4.2%) in extended trading, while US WTI crude dropped 3.9% to $86.51. This represents a dramatic reversal from the year’s highs: Crude had surged to over $140 per barrel in April 2026 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the height of the US-Iran conflict, the most severe disruption to global oil supply in decades. The fall is now approaching 37% from that peak.
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Oil Price and US-Iran Deal: Key Data
| Crude Oil Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| International Benchmark (June 11 settled) | $90.38 per barrel | -2.97% on the day |
| Brent Crude (extended trading, post-Trump comments) | $89.15 per barrel | -4.2% from prior close |
| WTI Crude (settled June 11) | $87.71 per barrel | -2%+ on the day |
| WTI Crude (extended trading) | $86.51 per barrel | -3.9% |
| Trump statement (June 11, Oval Office) | ‘Made a great settlement with Iran’ | Subject to document finalization |
| Deal timeline | This weekend (June 13-14) | Trump expects signing |
| Brent 2026 high | ~$140+ per barrel | At peak Hormuz closure, April 2026 |
| Brent decline from 2026 high | ~37% to current $89 | Biggest monthly loss since 2020 (May 2026) |
| MCX Crude Oil (June 12) | ~Rs 7,800-8,200/barrel | MCX tracking Brent decline |
| Strait of Hormuz status | Gradually reopening | Tanker traffic partially restored |
| USD/INR response | Rs 95.55 (+37 paise) | Rupee strengthening on lower crude |
| Sensex response (June 12) | Opening +500+ pts | Broad risk-on rally |
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Trump’s Iran Deal Statement: What Was Said
The key catalyst for Brent crude falling below $90 was Trump’s June 11 Oval Office statement. The president said the US had “made a great settlement of the war with Iran” that is “subject to finalization of documents,” and that the US expects to sign a deal soon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had earlier said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising and “will continue to rise.” The statement was more concrete than earlier ceasefire discussions, which had repeatedly fallen apart. The markets interpreted Trump’s phrasing as signalling a near-final agreement, causing Brent crude to sell off sharply as traders priced in the prospect of resumed Iranian crude exports and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for full tanker traffic.
India Impact: OMCs, Currency, and Equities
The fall in Brent crude below $90 is one of the most significant positive macro events for India in 2026. India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements at an annual cost of approximately $150-200 billion at elevated prices. Every $10 per barrel decline reduces India’s annual import bill by approximately $15-17 billion, directly improving the current account deficit, reducing imported inflation, and supporting the Indian rupee. The rupee has already responded, gaining 37 paise to Rs 95.55. Oil marketing companies (HPCL, IOC, BPCL), which were under severe pressure this week from crude-driven margin compression, would see significant margin recovery at sub-$90 Brent crude levels.
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Conclusion
The price fall below $90 per barrel on Trump’s Iran deal signals is a watershed moment for global energy markets and a major positive catalyst for India. If the deal is formalised this weekend, Brent crude could target $75-85 over the coming weeks. Track live Brent crude price and all commodity data on Univest.
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Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Brent crude falling below $90 today?
Ans. Brent crude is falling below $90 per barrel today because US President Donald Trump stated on June 11 that the United States had made a great settlement of the war with Iran that is subject to finalization of documents, with the deal potentially being signed this weekend. Brent settled at $90.38 on June 11 (down 2.97%) and fell further to approximately $89.15 in extended trading (down 4.2% from the prior close). A US-Iran peace deal would allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade flows. The closure of the Strait since February-March 2026 was the primary driver of Brent crude spiking to over $140 per barrel at its peak.
How far could Brent crude fall if the Iran deal is signed?
Ans. If the US-Iran deal is formally signed this weekend and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, analysts project Brent crude could fall toward $75-85 per barrel in the near term as Iranian crude exports resume (Iran was exporting 1.5-1.7 million barrels per day before the conflict, which fell to below 0.3 million bpd during hostilities). In the medium term, with OPEC+ members having constrained production to prevent storage overflow during Hormuz disruption, a gradual normalization of supply could push Brent toward $70-80 per barrel. Bob Parker, senior advisor at the International Capital Markets Association, had estimated oil prices could stay between $90 and a range that accounts for normalized supply. A failed deal would reverse all gains quickly.
How does Brent crude below $90 affect Indian markets?
Ans. Brent crude falling below $90 per barrel has broad positive implications for Indian markets. Oil marketing companies (HPCL, IOC, BPCL) are the most direct beneficiaries as their marketing margins improve when crude falls while retail fuel prices remain fixed. Airlines (IndiGo, Air India parent), logistics companies, and FMCG businesses with petroleum-based raw material inputs also benefit from lower energy costs. The Indian rupee has already strengthened 37 paise to Rs 95.55 as lower crude reduces India’s import bill. The RBI could be more comfortable cutting rates as imported inflation eases. The Sensex has rallied over 500 points today on this news.
What is the history of the US-Iran conflict and oil prices in 2026?
Ans. The US-Iran war began in late February 2026, with US and Israeli-led operations targeting Iran’s military infrastructure. The immediate fallout was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoint, causing Brent crude to surge from approximately $70 per barrel to above $140 at the April 2026 peak. Since April, multiple ceasefire attempts and deal discussions caused high volatility: Brent fell 19% in May (its biggest monthly decline since March 2020 during COVID), touching below $88 before rebounding to $92-94. The June 11 Trump comments about a ‘great settlement’ represent the most concrete progress yet, pushing Brent below $90 again.
